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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 1.41% to settle at 147,203, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but updated projections showed that nine policymakers still expect a rate hike this year. Market expectations for a September rate increase have risen to around 70%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Additional pressure emerged from easing geopolitical concerns after uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations, while Goldman Sachs lowered its December gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $5,400, citing near-term downside risks despite maintaining a constructive long-term outlook. Physical demand remained subdued across major consuming regions. In India, gold imports plunged nearly 70% after import duties were raised to 15% from 6%, while dealers offered discounts of up to $54 per ounce, wider than the previous week's $35 discount. India's physically backed gold ETFs also recorded their first monthly net outflow in a year during May due to profit booking. In China, bullion shifted to discounts of $4-$8 per ounce from premiums seen a week earlier as buyers remained cautious. Globally, gold ETF sentiment weakened, with net outflows of $2 billion in May, reducing total assets under management by 2% to $604 billion and holdings by 0.4% to 4,121 tonnes. Meanwhile, gold stored in London vaults rose 0.21% month-on-month to 9,392 tonnes. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 2.93% to 9,348 contracts while prices declined, indicating the emergence of new short positions. Gold has immediate support at 145,825, with a break below potentially extending losses toward 144,450. On the upside, resistance is placed at 148,460, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward 149,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 144450-149720.

*  Gold prices fell pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

*  Nine of the U.S. central bank's 19 policymakers now think they will need to raise the Fed's policy rate this year.

*  Goldman Sachs cuts its December gold price target

Silver

Silver prices declined by 1.85% to settle at 233,185, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations of tighter monetary policy. The dollar strengthened to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but maintained a hawkish outlook. Updated projections showed that nine of the Fed’s nineteen policymakers expect at least one rate hike later this year, while markets currently assign around a 70% probability of a September increase. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates and reducing the attractiveness of precious metals. Geopolitical developments also weighed on sentiment after Switzerland announced that planned U.S.-Iran negotiations would not take place, while ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah continue to keep regional tensions elevated. Despite the recent price decline, underlying physical demand remains mixed across key markets. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the ten-year average, supported by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of changes to export tax rebate policies. Elevated domestic silver prices in China encouraged significant arbitrage-driven inflows from global markets. In contrast, India’s silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to their lowest level in more than three years after the government tightened import restrictions and raised import duties on precious metals to 15% from 6%. London vault holdings increased by 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes, reflecting ample global inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 8.44% to 10,695 contracts while prices declined sharply. Silver has immediate support at 229,075, with further weakness potentially extending toward 224,960. Resistance is seen at 236,390, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for a recovery toward 239,590.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 224960-239590.

* Silver fell as a stronger US dollar and rising expectations for tighter monetary policy weighed on demand.

* The dollar climbed to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled a more hawkish outlook.

* Switzerland announced that the planned US-Iran talks would not take place on Friday.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rallied sharply by 2.95% to settle at 7,262, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions and tightening supply indicators. Market sentiment strengthened after planned talks between the United States and Iran in Switzerland were cancelled, raising concerns over the prospects for a near-term diplomatic resolution. At the same time, Israel continued strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated across energy markets. The gains were further supported by a significant decline in U.S. crude inventories, highlighting robust demand and tightening supply conditions. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total U.S. oil inventories fell by 17.2 million barrels during the week ended June 12, dropping to 758.5 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1985. Commercial crude inventories declined by 8.262 million barrels to 418.2 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations for a 4.6 million-barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also fell by 1.606 million barrels, while refinery utilization increased by 1.4 percentage points as refiners boosted processing activity. Gasoline inventories posted a modest decline, reflecting healthy fuel demand. On the supply side, Iraq increased crude production from its southern fields by around 500,000 barrels per day, lifting output to 1.5 million bpd as export operations improved. However, OPEC output in May dropped by 1.06 million bpd to 16.13 million bpd, the lowest level in more than two decades, largely due to disruptions affecting Iranian exports and regional supply flows. Although the International Energy Agency expects the market to gradually normalize and potentially move into surplus by 2027, near-term supply concerns remain supportive. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 12.15% to 8,875 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at 7,146, followed by 7,029. Resistance is placed at 7,334, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 7,405.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7029-7405.

* Crude oil gained after planned talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland was cancelled.

* US crude stocks fall to its lowest since March 1985, EIA says

* Iraq's southern crude output rises by about 500,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd

Natural Gas

Natural Gas prices edged lower by 0.36% to settle at 302.1, pressured by a slight increase in daily production and expectations that storage levels will remain comfortably above seasonal norms. Despite forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures through early July, which should support cooling demand and increase gas consumption by power generators, the market remained cautious due to ample supply conditions. Approximately 40% of U.S. electricity generation comes from natural gas-fired power plants, and higher temperatures are expected to sustain air-conditioning demand. However, slightly cooler weather forecasts for next week are expected to reduce total gas demand, including exports, from 103.7 bcfd to 102.5 bcfd. Supply fundamentals remained relatively stable. Gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 17.1 bcfd in June, unchanged from May due to ongoing maintenance at several terminals, although exports remain significantly above historical levels. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur continue to be monitored, with only a limited chance of redeveloping into a stronger weather system. Storage data provided a mixed outlook. U.S. utilities injected 73 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week ended June 12, slightly below market expectations of 75 bcf. Total inventories rose to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, standing 5.8% above the five-year average despite remaining marginally below year-ago levels. Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasting record-high natural gas production, consumption, and LNG exports through 2027. Production is projected to increase from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 111.0 bcfd in 2026, while LNG exports are expected to reach 17.2 bcfd next year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 24.99% to 14,182 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 299.4, with further downside toward 296.8. Resistance is placed at 305.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 309.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 296.8-309.4.

* Natural gas dropped amid a slight increase in daily output and expectations gas in storage will remain above normal levels.

* LNG export feedgas expected to rise in coming weeks as plants exit maintenance

* Energy firms added near-normal 73 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, the EIA said

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.92% to settle at 1,309.6, pressured by expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy outlook. Although the Fed left rates unchanged, policymakers signaled growing support for additional tightening later this year, raising concerns about economic growth and industrial metals demand. Additional pressure came after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia following a temporary disruption, easing some immediate supply concerns. Despite the price decline, underlying inventory trends remain supportive. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks fell 23.6% week-on-week to 143,875 tonnes, the lowest level since December, while LME inventories declined to 352,150 tonnes, their lowest level in nearly three months. China, the world’s largest copper consumer, reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in unwrought copper imports during April to 452,000 tonnes, a seven-month high. Strong investment in power infrastructure continues to support demand, with China’s power grid spending rising 37% during the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, refined copper production in China reached a record 1.33 million tonnes in March, reflecting robust domestic supply. Market participants remain focused on longer-term supply deficits. Jefferies expects an average annual copper supply deficit of nearly 491,000 tonnes through 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Citi both raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing weaker mine supply growth and resilient demand. However, the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to return to a surplus of 96,000 tonnes in 2026 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 12.5% to 12,572 contracts while prices moved lower. Copper has immediate support at 1,299.7, with further downside toward 1,289.7. Resistance is seen at 1,318.1, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,326.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1289.7-1326.5.

* Copper edged down as expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates weighed on the market.

* Pressure also seen after Rio Tinto resumed exports of copper concentrate from its giant Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia following a brief protest-related disruption.

* SHFE copper stocks of 143,875 tons are the lowest since December after a 23.6% drop from last week.

Zinc 

Zinc prices declined by 1.13% to settle at 366.5, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar after peace talks between the United States and Iran were postponed. The dollar climbed to a one-year high as uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions increased after Switzerland confirmed that negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials would not proceed as planned. The stronger dollar reduced the attractiveness of industrial metals, weighing on overall market sentiment despite supportive supply-side fundamentals. However, downside pressure remained limited due to tightening near-term supply conditions and a series of disruptions across major zinc producers. Concerns intensified after a seismic event at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine raised the possibility of lower production levels for an extended period. In Peru, Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla smelter, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. In addition, Glencore-owned Kazzinc continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan. These disruptions reinforced concerns over refined metal availability and helped cushion the decline in prices. Inventory trends also remained supportive. Zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 1.2% from the previous week, highlighting steady demand and relatively tight market conditions. Meanwhile, China’s central bank maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance aimed at supporting domestic demand and industrial activity. Although the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a global zinc market surplus of 26,500 tonnes in April, this was significantly lower than March’s surplus of 56,300 tonnes, indicating a gradual tightening in market balances. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 8.08% to 1,922 contracts while prices moved lower. Zinc has immediate support at 364.4, with further downside toward 362.4. Resistance is seen at 369.7, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 373.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 362.4-373.

* Zinc dropped after peace talks between US and Iran were postponed and the dollar struck a one-year high.

* The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 tons in March

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.2% from last Friday.

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.27% to settle at 357.85, supported primarily by tightening inventories and ongoing supply concerns across key producing regions. Aluminium stocks in LME warehouses declined to 316,525 tonnes, the lowest level since September 2022, reflecting continued drawdowns in available supplies. Additional support came from disruptions affecting major producers, including Norsk Hydro’s declaration of a second force majeure on aluminium sales from Qatar and slower recovery at key Gulf smelters. Concerns over Guinea’s stricter controls on bauxite exports also contributed to expectations of tighter raw material availability. However, gains remained limited due to rising production levels in China and increasing output from Indonesian smelters. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of aluminium, reported a 1.7% year-on-year increase in May production to 3.89 million tonnes, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. Output during the first five months of 2026 rose 3.5% to 19.22 million tonnes. Weak economic indicators from China also continued to raise concerns about demand growth, preventing stronger price advances despite supply-side support. Trade data highlighted resilient market activity. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March to 360,000 tonnes, while first-quarter imports rose 1.6%. At the same time, exports of unwrought aluminium and products jumped 5.7% in May and more than 10% during the first five months of the year. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports fell 10.8% month-on-month to 249,500 tonnes, indicating steady regional demand. J.P. Morgan remains constructive on the market, expecting aluminium prices to average $3,750 per tonne in the second half of the year and eventually move toward $4,000. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.61% to 1,950 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 355.9, followed by 353.8. Resistance is placed at 359.3, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 360.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 353.8-360.6.

* Aluminium gains as aluminium stocks in LME warehouses are at the lowest since September 2022.

* Goldman Sachs raised its average aluminium price forecast, assuming Middle East production will face a slower recovery.

* Goldman sees the global aluminium market tightening more than previously expected, projecting a larger deficit in 2026.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 1.47% to settle at 16,868, weighed down by increased selling pressure from farmers during the peak harvest season. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis have outpaced immediate demand, resulting in short-term weakness in prices. Market sentiment was further impacted by reports of sizeable stocks, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal as of May-end, which encouraged buyers to remain cautious. Farmers who had previously withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices have started releasing inventories, increasing near-term market supplies. Additionally, quality concerns related to Rhizome Rot and deterioration in some arrivals have forced sellers to accept lower prices. Despite the recent correction, underlying fundamentals remain relatively supportive. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than the more than 20 lakh bags available last season, indicating tighter overall availability. Export demand continues to provide support, particularly for premium quality produce. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from the European Union remains healthy, while active buying interest from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric has strengthened sentiment in Andhra Pradesh markets. India's turmeric exports remained stable in April 2026, rising marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset declines in shipments to the UAE and the United States. China emerged as one of the fastest-growing destinations, importing 1,455 tonnes compared to only 9 tonnes a year earlier. Looking ahead, the advance of the Southwest Monsoon and forecasts of above-normal rainfall across peninsular India have improved prospects for the next sowing season. Early indications suggest acreage expansion in key producing states following the recent period of elevated prices. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.47% to 24,550 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at 16,750, followed by 16,630. Resistance is placed at 17,070, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward 17,270.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16630-17270.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16220.35 Rupees dropped by -0.99 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices gained 0.94% to settle at 20,965, supported by tightening availability of premium quality seeds and renewed buying interest from export markets. Demand from European and North American buyers has improved, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while large industrial processors have started rebuilding inventories at current price levels. Market sentiment also received support from reports of thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan, which damaged portions of the standing crop during the harvest stage and raised concerns over the availability of high-quality “A-grade” produce. Unseasonal rainfall in North-West India further delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary supply disruptions. However, gains remained limited due to increased arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions. Favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting more quickly than expected, resulting in a sharp increase in market arrivals rather than a staggered supply pattern. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to generate funds for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding steady selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, keeping overall supply comfortable despite concerns regarding premium-grade availability. Fundamentally, production prospects remain lower than last year. Industry estimates suggest national jeera production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last season. Gujarat’s production is expected to fall nearly 27% due to lower acreage and weaker yields, while disease outbreaks in key growing areas have affected crop quality. Globally, adverse weather conditions have also reduced production estimates in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Export data showed India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April 2026, although strong growth in shipments to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset weaker demand from the UAE. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.54% to 9,399 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 20,780, followed by 20,590. Resistance is placed at 21,090, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 21,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20590-21210.

* Jeera gains on short covering and as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* European and North American buyers have re-entered the market, specifically targeting residue-compliant and high-specification lots.

* Large industrial processors have started increasing their "hand-to-mouth" inventory levels at these lower price points.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20674.25 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views