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The latest USDA outlook projects higher U.S. and global oilseed production for the 2026/27 marketing year, led by increased soybean acreage and improved rapeseed output. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.475 billion bushels as harvested area expands, while exports are expected to rise on stronger global demand. Despite larger supplies, ending stocks remain unchanged due to higher export demand. Globally, oilseed production is expected to reach 720 million tons, supported by increased soybean, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed output. China’s soybean imports and crushing are projected to increase, while global soybean ending stocks decline slightly, reflecting lower inventories in Brazil.

Key Highlights

• U.S. soybean production rises to 4.475 billion bushels on higher harvested acreage.
• U.S. soybean exports increase by 30 million bushels amid stronger global demand.
• Global oilseed production is projected to reach a record 720 million tons.
• China is expected to import and crush more soybeans in 2026/27.
• Global soybean ending stocks decline slightly due to lower inventories in Brazil.

The soybean market remained supported as the latest USDA projections pointed to stronger production prospects while reinforcing expectations of robust global demand. The updated outlook suggests that expanding harvested acreage in the United States will help boost soybean availability, although steady domestic consumption and stronger exports are expected to prevent a significant increase in ending stocks.

For the 2026/27 marketing year, U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.475 billion bushels, an increase of 40 million bushels from the previous forecast. The revision follows higher harvested acreage of 84.4 million acres, while the national average yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports are projected to rise by 30 million bushels as improved global demand offsets the increase in production. Consequently, U.S. ending stocks are maintained at 310 million bushels, while season-average prices remain unchanged at $11.40 per bushel.

Globally, oilseed production is forecast to increase by 1.8 million tons to 720 million tons, supported by larger soybean, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crops. Higher rapeseed production in Russia and the United States, together with increased soybean acreage in the United States and Canada, contributes to the stronger supply outlook. Meanwhile, lower sunflowerseed production in Ukraine and reduced soybean area in Russia partially offset these gains.

Demand prospects also remain constructive. China is expected to increase soybean imports and crushing activity, while Algeria's soybean demand has also been revised higher. Global soybean exports are projected to increase for both the United States and Brazil, reflecting continued international demand. Despite larger global production, soybean ending stocks are forecast to decline slightly to 124.2 million tons, primarily because of lower inventories in Brazil.

Higher production and resilient global demand continue to support the soybean market, while stable U.S. stocks and lower global inventories suggest a balanced but fundamentally constructive outlook.

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