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Below the Quote on CPI by Rajeev Sharan, Head – Criteria, Model Development & Research, Brickwork Ratings

“India's headline CPI inflation edged up to 4.45% in July 2026 from 4.38% in June, still within the RBI's tolerance band. Food inflation rose to 5.52%, driven by fresh spikes in onion and garlic alongside persistently high ginger prices, even as potato and tomato swung into deflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, is estimated near 4%, kept elevated by gold and silver prices amid geopolitical risk aversion and firm crude-linked transport costs. For Q2 FY27 (July-September 2026), we expect headline inflation to average around 4.5-4.7%, with a mild uptick likely in September as base effects turn less favourable. Going forward, food will remain the key swing factor amid uneven monsoon and El Niño-related uncertainty.” 

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