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The slack in speed observed in the Indian economy during the second quarter of 2024-25 is behind us as private consumption is back to being the driver of domestic demand with festival spending lighting up real activity in Q3, according to the RBI’s monthly bulletin for November. The report points out that rural India is emerging as a gold mine for e-commerce companies in this festival season; this is expected to gather further momentum with the sharp increase in kharif o...
Private consumption driving growth in Q3 with rural India taking lead: RBI
The U.S. dollar held near a 6-1/2-month peak against major peers and bitcoin was solidly poised just below record highs on Wednesday as markets sized up so-called Trump trades ahead of key U.S. inflation data later in the day. The dollar is reaping the benefits of Republican Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last week, with investors pricing in policies of lower taxes and trade tariffs under the incoming administration that are seen as inflationary. [US/]. The...
Dollar holds firm ahead of US inflation, bitcoin targets fresh highs
Consumer price inflation in India climbed to a 14-month high of 5.81% in October primarily due to a spike in vegetable and edible oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, a shade below the central bank's tolerance threshold of 6.0%. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the inflation basket, likely increased at a faster pace last month. Tomatoes, a key ingredient in every Indian kitchen, are expected to have surged by double digits in price as uneven rains disrupted prod...
India inflation to rise further to 5.81% on rising food costs
The market outlook for next week will be guided by key macroeconomic data and the last round of Q2 earnings. India is set to release Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data on November 12, with Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data expected on November 14. Globally, the US inflation report on November 13 will be critical, as it may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance. Last week, the stock market closed in the deep red. Nif...
Market Outlook: Inflation, FII, economic data key triggers for next week
Consumer price inflation in India climbed to a 14-month high of 5.81% in October primarily due to a spike in vegetable and edible oil prices, a Reuters poll of economists predicted, a shade below the central bank's tolerance threshold of 6.0%. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the inflation basket, likely increased at a faster pace last month. Tomatoes, a key ingredient in every Indian kitchen, are expected to have surged by double digits in price as uneven rains disrupte...
India inflation to rise further to 5.81% on rising food costs
India’s growth story remains intact as its fundamental drivers – consumption and investment demand – are gaining momentum, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has stressed, adding that the country is likely to see real GDP growth at 7.2 per cent for FY 2024-25. Prospects of private consumption, the mainstay of aggregate demand, look bright on the back of improved agricultural outlook and rural demand. Sustained buoyancy in services would also support urban demand. G...
India`s growth story remains intact, real GDP likely to grow at 7.2 pc in FY25: RBI Governor
Below the Quote on CPI Numbers by Mr. Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India “Consumer headline inflation rose to a nine-month high of 5.5% in Sep 2024, driven by stickiness in food prices. Core inflation as well has been gradually increasing, reaching a eight-month high of 3.5%. This trend indicates mounting inflationary pressures, which could impact consumers’ disposable income. The rise in CPI aligns with increasing household inflation exp...
Quote on CPI Numbers by Mr. Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India
India is hiking minimum wages marginally for workers employed in informal sectors including construction, mining and agriculture, from October 1, a government statement said on Thursday. "This adjustment is aimed at helping workers cope with the rising cost of living," the statement said, referring to the 2.40-point rise in consumer price index (CPI) for industrial workers. After the hike, the unskilled workers in the upper-most band can expect a daily minimum wage of 783 rupe...
India hikes minimum wages as living costs surge
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) article in the September Bulletin has said that food price volatility remains a contingent risk even as the overall retail inflation has remained below the target of 4 per cent for the second consecutive month in August. It further said that household consumption is poised to grow faster in the second quarter as headline inflation eases, with a revival of rural demand already taking hold. It stated ‘Consumer price index (CPI) inflation came...
Food price volatility remains contingent risk: RBI Bulletin
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International “The August retail inflation has marginally risen to 3.65% if compared MoM, the gain is largely due to food inflation that has risen to 5.66%. The retail inflation print below 4% is also due to a higher base. July industrial output at 4.8% is largely due to manufacturing growth. The acceleration is retail inflation though moderate will have a bearing&...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
India's consumer price inflation slowed to a 59-month low of 3.54 per cent in July this year compared to the same month of the previous year to fall below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time in close to 5 years, data released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday showed. The prices of cooking oil and spices declined by over 1 per cent during the month, easing the strain on household budgets, while the price rise for vegetables eased to 6.83 per c...
India's CPI inflation eases to 59-month low of 3.54 per cent
Gold prices were subdued on Friday and headed for a weekly decline, while investors awaited further cues to gauge the size of a potential U.S. interest rate cut in September. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,421.31 per ounce, as of 0402 GMT, after rising more than 1% on Thursday. Bullion was on track for its biggest weekly fall since June 7, and fell as much as 3% on Monday after investors liquidated positions in tandem with a broader equities selloff. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1% to $...
Gold prices set for weekly drop, with focus on Fed cues
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.50 per cent. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while s...
RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for 9th time in row
Below the Quote on Perspective on CPI-June 2024 Data by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings ”The CPI inflation rose sharply to 5.1% in June from 4.8% in May, higher than market expectations. The inflation in food basket inched up higher led by specific food categories, including vegetables, pulses and cereals. Prices of staple vegetables rose sharply and is attributed to both supply-side and demand-side factors. Last year's reduced output, the impact of...
Perspective on CPI-June 2024 Data by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings
The food prices are projected to cool off in the coming months and the inflation trajectory to soften and stabilise between 4 and 4.5 per cent, industry experts have said. India’s consumer price inflation (CPI) edged up to 5.08 per cent in June this year compared to the same period last year. According to industry experts, although June rains were deficient, it is not a major concern because July and August rains are what matter for Kharif. “We expect the progress o...
Food prices set to cool off in coming months as monsoon progresses: Experts
Below the Quote on Reaction Quote on today`s CPI data By Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management "India’s CPI inflation in June 2024 stood at 5.08% on the back of higher food prices, as against 4.75% in the previous month. Material moderation in food inflation is expected only from September on the back of fresh kharif crop arrivals. We expect the markets to remain unaffected as the markets have mostly factored in the rise in the food inflation and we believe t...
Reaction Quote on today`s CPI data Raghvendra Nath, MD, Ladderup Wealth Management
Below the Quote on Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group * Headline inflation was 5.1% YoY in Jun'24, higher than the market consensus (and our forecast) of 4.8% and 4.8% each in the past three months. Details, however, are also not really concerning: * Vegetables drove higher inflation. CPI-inflation ex veg (weight = 94%) dropped further to 3.2% last month (vs 3.5% in May) * ...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
India’s consumer price inflation edged up to 5.08 per cent in June this year compared to the same month of the previous year as high prices of vegetables and pulses pushed up food inflation during the month, figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday showed. Vegetable prices shot up by as much as 29.32 per cent during the month as the scorching heat wave in the northern states hit production, while the prices of pulses rose by 16.07 per cent during the month. The pri...
India`s CPI inflation edges up to 5.08 pc in June
Below the Quote on Weekly Market Outlook by Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services "The domestic market remained marginally positive this week, albeit with a temporary blip in momentum due to a lack of fresh triggers. Nonetheless, mid and small-cap sectors demonstrated outperformance, as sentiment has enhanced again for growth-based stocks. The outcome of the FOMC meeting was hawkish; market expectations have shifted from two rate cuts in CY2...
Weekly Market Outlook : Domestic CPI data suggests a gradual decline in inflation by Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services
Residential real estate prices have risen continuously since 2013 and in the last two years, they appreciated at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13 per cent while the consumer price inflation (CPI) inflation moderated by 1.3 per cent on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent at the end of FY24, a report showed on Thursday. Around 8.25 lakh new homes were launched and 8.72 lakh units were sold during the last two financial years. This trend signifies a clear outperformance...
Housing prices see 13 pc growth in last two years as inflation eases in India
Inflation, the gradual increase in the general prices of goods and services, erodes the purchasing power of money over time. For investors seeking to preserve and grow their wealth amidst inflationary pressures, real estate has emerged as a popular hedge against this dreaded but inevitable dynamic, finds ANAROCK research. Price growth over the last three elections Shobhit Agarwal, MD & CEO – ANAROCK Capital, says, “After the 2019 elections, average re...
Housing Prices Soar with 13% CAGR as Inflation Moderates to 5.4%
Amid the energy crisis and economic stagnation, 2023 was a year of gradual progress in the uptake of global carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Multi-dimensional efforts are being undertaken worldwide to promote these instruments’ uptake and improve prices to meet the 2°C goal, especially in mid-income countries. The final bill for the rollout of the Indian carbon market is approved, and the finer details are awaited. We believe that companies enabling/transitioning to a lower carbon ...
ESG: Global carbon pricing trends 2023: Needs more ambition by Kotak Institutional Equities
Inflation remains steady in May Headline CPI inflation at 4.75% and core inflation at 3% were marginally lower than April levels. Inflation continues to pan out as we had expected—only a gradual moderation toward the RBI’s 4% target. We maintain our FY2025 average inflation estimate at around 4.4%. We continue to expect a shallow rate cut cycle, starting in December, with the stance changing to neutral either in October policy or along with rate action. Food inflation ...
Economy: Inflation remains steady in May by Kotak Institutional Equities
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International "India’s CPI inflation in May 2024 eased to 12-month low of 4.75 per cent, though bit higher than the 4.31 per cent recorded in the year-ago month of May 2023. While India’s industrial production grew 5 per cent in April riding on robust growth of 6.7 percent in mining and 10.2 percent in electricity, over the corresponding month in the previou...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group No surprises again; Monetary easing still some time away May headline inflation came in at 4.75%, April IIP at 5% Headline inflation was largely in line with the BMBG consensus and IIP growth was slightly better. Today's data will not change any views on India's monetary policy. Some CPI details: -- Core inflation stood at ...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Gold prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve in its most recent policy meeting scaled back to only one interest rate cut later this year, fewer than previously projected, even as inflation cooled in May. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,313.92 per ounce, as of 0340 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 1.1% to $2,329.50. "While the tamer consumer price index print was a net positive for gold, the takeaway from the Fed meeting was that the number of rate cuts in 2024 have been red...
Gold slips as Fed signals only one rate cut this year
Gold prices fell on Tuesday with investors awaiting key U.S. inflation data and the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for details of the central bank's plans to cut interest rates against its inflation target. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,302.89 per ounce, as of 0317 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,320.20. "I suspect the Fed's hands are tied following the strong payrolls report, as it likely doesn't enable them to signal the September cut that ...
Gold slips as markets eye outcome of Fed meet, CPI data
Last Week, Indian equity markets witnessed high volatility sessions due to an unexpected outcome in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark Nifty was within the range of 21,300-23,300 points, the widest after May 2020. A new government is being formed on Sunday and it is believed that stability can be seen in the market for next week. The outlook for the market will be guided by the major domestic and global economic data. Retail inflation (CPI ...
Market Outlook: New Government, IIP, PMI data and Fed meet key triggers for next week
The RBI has raised India’s GDP growth forecast from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for the current financial year (2024-25), as it expects the economy to continue on a high growth trajectory. However, it has decided to stick to its CPI inflation forecast for 4.5 per cent for the year. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024-25 is likely to be at 7.3 per cent, 7.2 per cent in Q2, 7.3 per cent in Q3, and 7.2 per cent in the last quarter. &l...
RBI raises GDP growth forecast for 2024-25 to 7.2 pc, sees CPI inflation at 4.5 pc
The dollar traded near a one-month low versus the euro on Wednesday amid lower Treasury yields as traders braced for a key U.S. inflation report later in the day that could dictate the path of Federal Reserve policy. The yen languished near a two-week low, as a still-gaping yield gap between local bonds and U.S. peers continued to encourage selling of the Japanese currency. The yuan slid to a two-week low versus the dollar after U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled steep tariff increases o...
Dollar droops ahead of crucial CPI test; yen under pressure
Below The Quote On Today's IIP & CPI inflation data from Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management Private Limited "At 4.83%, CPI continued its downward trajectory. With expectations of normal monsoons, we expect the food inflation to moderate in the coming months. Oil remains a key monitorable due to the ongoing geo-political uncertainty. We don't expect any impact on markets or the policy stance of RBI, as the CPI number was in l...
Reaction Quote on today's CPI data By Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director, Ladderup Wealth Management
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International "April's CPI inflation decreased slightly from 4.85% in March to 4.83%, eighth straight month that inflation remained within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2 percentage points within 4%. Urban inflation was recorded at 4.11%, while rural inflation was reported at 5.43%. Food and beverage prices held steady at 7.87 percent, slightly higher than 7.68 ...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
Below The Perspective on CPI Data by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings. CPI inflation, broadly in line with the expectations, moderated to 4.83% in April. Core inflation persisted at a benign rate of 3.2%. Reversing last month's trend, food inflation inched up to 7.9% as the ongoing deflation in the oil and fat category fell to a single digit after 12 months. The high inflation in specific food categories, including vegetables and pulses, remain a concern....
Perspective on CPI Data By Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings
Below The Reaction Quote on CPI data By Shlok Srivastav, Co-founder & COO, Appreciate, a SEBI and IFSCA registered fintech company. “The headline inflation number at 4.83% masks the rather ominous food inflation figure of 7.9%. Undoubtedly, the new government will draw relief from the expectation of a normal monsoon. However, erratic behaviour from the monsoon threatens to send food inflation soaring even higher, which would dampen consumption going forw...
Reaction Quote on CPI data By Shlok Srivastav, Co-founder & COO, Appreciate, a SEBI and IFSCA registered fintech company
Asian shares hovered around 15-month highs on Tuesday and the dollar was firm ahead of highly anticipated U.S. inflation data, while Japanese bonds were squeezed as the central bank pulled back a little on its bond buying programme. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed slightly and hit its highest since early 2023 in morning trade, as a strong rally in Hong Kong shares extended into a fourth consecutive week. [.HK] Japan's Nikkei was flat. Benchmark...
Asia shares hit 15-month high as traders wait for CPI
India's consumer price inflation is likely to have eased to 4.80% in April, just shy of March's rate as food inflation remains sticky, according to economists polled by Reuters. While headline inflation has moderated in recent months, food prices, which account for nearly half the consumer price index (CPI) basket, have remained elevated, squeezing household budgets. With parts of the country experiencing a heatwave, food prices continue to pose an additional risk to India's...
India inflation likely slipped in April
India's GDP growth trend is on the cusp of an upshift, with early signs of it rising above 7 per cent recorded during the 2020s before Covid-19 struck, according to the RBI's monthly bulletin for April released on Tuesday. "The conditions are shaping up for an extension of a trend upshift in India's real GDP growth, backed by strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments," the report states. It also points out that the global growth momentum ...
RBI sees India`s GDP growth trend surging past 7 per cent
Rising global risks, including the rise in crude oil prices, may delay RBI’s rate cuts, analysts said. “While we maintain our call for a 50 bps rate cut starting in 3QFY25, we note increasing risks of further delays to the RBI’s rate cuts from rising crude oil prices, a further push-back to the timing of the US Fed’s rate easing cycle and volatile food inflation,” Kotak Institutional Equities said. “In the near term, we see upside risks to our 1QFY25 ...
Rising global risks could delay RBI rate cuts, say analysts
March inflation moderates; global risks increasing March headline inflation, as expected, moderated to 4.9%, while core inflation moderated marginally to 3.3%. We continue to expect only a gradual moderation in headline inflation. In the near term, we see upside risks to our 1QFY25 estimate from adverse weather and increasing commodity prices. We maintain our (1) FY2025 average headline inflation estimate at 4.5% and (2) call for a 50 bps repo rate cut starting in 3QFY25. Food and fuel...
Economy : March inflation moderates; global risks increasing
With cooling food prices, Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March 2024.The CPI was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023. The inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort zone. The government has tasked the RBI to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. T...
Retail inflation eases to five-month low of 4.85% in March
The dollar steadied on Monday, holding its biggest weekly gain since 2022, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and the prospect of stubbornly high U.S. interest rates gave support. The dollar went up 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week after a small but unnerving upside surprise in U.S. inflation cast doubt over bets on U.S. rate cuts, while European policymakers signalled a cut within a few months. The dollar made a 34-year high on the yen, rising to 153.69. I...
Dollar stands tall, yen slides as US rate-cut bets recede
Asian shares slumped and gold prices rose on Monday as risk sentiment took a hit after Iran's retaliatory attack on Israel stoked fears of a wider regional conflict and kept traders on edge. The dollar scaled a fresh 34-year high against the yen on growing expectations that sticky inflationary pressures in the United States will keep rates there higher for longer. Markets in Asia began the week on a cautious footing. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fel...
Asia stocks slide, gold rises as Middle East conflict sparks safety rush
Investors are closely monitoring Q4 earnings and geopolitical events, which are poised to shape market direction, says Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, alongside supply concerns, have propelled crude prices upward, impacting overall market sentiment, he said. Investors' hopes for a June rate cut were dashed by higher-than-expected inflation in the US, compounded by positive US employment and manufacturing...
Markets likely to remain volatile on global concerns
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group As expected, India's inflation was at 10-month low of 4.85% YoY in Mar'24 (BMBG consensus and our forecast of 4.9%), implying that inflation was 5.4% in FY24, the lowest in four years. Key details are as follows: 1) Core inflation was unchanged at 3.3% last month, while food inflation was 8.5% vs. 8.6% in Feb'24 2) Services inflat...
Perspective on CPI & IIP data by Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist, MOFSL Group
Below the Views on CPI and IIP by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings CPI-March 2024 CPI inflation, broadly in line with the expectations, has moderated to 4.9% in March from 5.1% in February. Core inflation remained subdued and moderated marginally, consistently staying below the 4% threshold for fourth consecutive months. Although there has been a broad-based moderation in the overall CPI basket, food inflation persists at elevated levels despite m...
Views on CPI and IIP by Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings
Below the Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International "India's retail inflation eases to a 9-month low of 4.85% in March. Retail inflation, also known as Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, decreased to 4.85% from 5.09 percent in February. Inflation is gradually approaching the 4% comfort zone set by the RBI. While, the CPI for rural areas was 5.45%, and the CPI for urban areas was 4.14%. Inflation meas...
Perspective on CPI & IIP Data by Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
India’s consumer price inflation eased to a 9-month low of 4.85 per cent in March bringing relief to household budgets, figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday showed. Retail Inflation has come down closer to the RBI’s mid-term target of 4 per cent after which the central bank would be in a position to cut key interest rates to spur economic growth. The country’s CPI inflation had stood at 5.09 per cent in February and 5.1 per cent in January. ...
India`s CPI inflation eases to 9-month low of 4.85 pc in March
The price of gold went up on MCX on Wednesday with gold for June 5 delivery traded 0.44 per cent higher at Rs 71,652 per 10 grams at around 11:30 a.m. The gold price in the domestic futures market tracked the rally in the global market which saw the price of the yellow metal closing to a record high. Both gold and silver prices recorded a hike on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Wednesday. Gold futures, maturing on June 5, 2024, stood at Rs 71,456 per 10 grams on the MCX, ...
Gold prices rise on MCX tracking global rally
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