Aluminium trading range for the day is 305.2-311 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold slipped 0.73% to settle at 154,760, weighed down by profit booking and thin volumes as U.S. and Chinese markets remained closed. Traders stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting. While Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated rates could eventually move lower, he acknowledged that services inflation remains sticky. U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may hold rates steady for now, even as markets price in 75 basis points of cuts later this year, with the first likely in July. Geopolitical tensions offered underlying support, with reports suggesting the U.S. military is preparing for a potential prolonged operation against Iran if authorized. Meanwhile, ANZ raised its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 per ounce, citing persistent global uncertainties. Physical markets showed mixed trends. In India, gold traded at discounts of up to $12 per ounce as high prices curbed demand, while China saw steady buying ahead of the Lunar New Year. According to the China Gold Association, China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, while ETF holdings surged sharply. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.6% and prices falling ?1,135. Support is seen at 153,940, with further downside toward 153,120. Resistance stands at 155,565, and a rebound could test 156,370.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 153120-156370.
* Gold dropped pressured by thin trading volumes as U.S. and China markets remained shut.
* Fed’s Goolsbee said that interest rates could go down, but noted that services inflation remained high.
* The U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in January after an unrevised 0.3% gain in December.
Silver
Silver declined 1.83% to settle at 239,891, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar ahead of key economic data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Recent comments from Fed officials reinforced a cautious stance. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said rate cuts are possible but depend on further easing in services inflation. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signaled that rates may stay higher for longer unless there is clear labor market weakness. Although U.S. inflation slowed to 2.4% in January—its lowest since May—strong jobs data has pushed expectations for the first rate cut to July, with markets still pricing in about two cuts this year. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump indicated that negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program could conclude within a month, easing some immediate safe-haven demand. Despite the price drop, physical market dynamics remain tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes, near decade lows, reflecting sustained drawdowns. London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower month-on-month. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.83% and prices falling ?4,469. Support is seen at 236,250, with further downside toward 232,610. Resistance stands at 242,490, and a recovery could test 245,090.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 232610-245090.
* Silver prices dropped as the dollar strengthened ahead of a busy week of economic data.
* US annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months.
* Stronger-than-expected US jobs figures released earlier reduced the likelihood of a near-term rate cut
Crude oil
Crude oil rose 1.19% to settle at 5,791, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran ahead of a second round of talks. While Iran has indicated a willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program if sanctions are addressed, uncertainty remains high. Adding to the risk premium, a Ukrainian drone strike hit a Russian Black Sea port just before fresh U.S.-brokered peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine. Despite these tensions, the broader supply backdrop remains comfortable. Some OPEC+ members reportedly see scope to resume output hikes in April, while the International Energy Agency continues to flag a potential surplus in 2026, even after slightly raising its global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported a sharp 8.5 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories, alongside higher gasoline stocks, though distillates declined. China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are climbing, with February volumes estimated at a record 2.07 million bpd. On the positioning front, CFTC data showed money managers increasing net long bets. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 19.67% as prices gained ?68. Immediate support is seen at 5,707, with a break below targeting 5,624. Resistance stands at 5,835, and a move higher could test 5,880.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5624-5880.
* Crude oil gains on heightened tensions between the US and Iran ahead of a second round of talks.
* OPEC+ alliance is considering "resuming output increases" starting in April.
* Speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 7,777 contracts to 70,788 – CFTC
Natural gas
Natural gas tumbled 4.96% to settle at 279.5, as forecasts for warmer weather dampened expectations for heating demand. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, much of the central and southern U.S. is likely to experience above-average temperatures over the next two weeks, easing consumption after a spell of extreme cold. Demand in the Lower 48, including exports, is projected to fall from 141.1 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week. On the supply side, output remains strong. Production has averaged 107.4 bcfd so far in February, up from January levels and not far from December’s record. The Energy Information Administration reported a 249 bcf storage withdrawal for the week ended February 6—well above the five-year average draw, though slightly below market expectations. Total inventories now stand at 2.214 trillion cubic feet, 4.2% below last year and 5.5% under the five-year norm. LNG exports remain near record highs, providing structural demand support. Looking ahead, the EIA projects dry gas production will climb to 110 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 4.03% as prices fell ?14.6. Immediate support is seen at 272, with further downside toward 264.6. Resistance stands at 284.6, and a rebound could test 289.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.6-289.8.
* Natural gas slumped as forecasts for warmer weather reduced expectations for heating demand.
* Central and southern areas of the US are anticipated to see above-average temperatures over the coming two weeks, according to NOAA.
* US working gas inventories are roughly 130 bcf below the five-year average.
Copper
Copper slipped 0.95% to settle at 1,198.05, pressured by a sharp build in exchange inventories. Combined stocks across the world’s three major metal exchanges have now crossed 1 million metric tons for the first time in over two decades, reflecting soft demand in China and recent stockpiling in the U.S. China’s factory activity weakened in January, and physical demand has slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year break. Spot premiums have turned into discounts, with the Yangshan premium hovering at historically low levels, signaling muted appetite for imports. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also rose 9.5% week-on-week. On the supply side, mine disruptions offered some support. Production at Chile’s Collahuasi and Escondida mines declined sharply in December, while Peru’s output fell 11.2% year-on-year. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton surplus in November, widening from October. Meanwhile, China continues to expand refined output, with December production up 9.1% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.64% as prices fell ?11.45. Immediate support is seen at 1,191.8, with further downside toward 1,185.5. Resistance stands at 1,205.7, and a move above this level could push prices to 1,213.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1185.5-1213.3.
* Copper prices dropped as stocks on the world's three biggest metal exchanges have exceeded 1 million metric tons.
* China's factory activity faltered in January as weak domestic demand dragged down production at the start of the new year.
* Comex copper speculators cut net long position by 43 contracts to 54,270 in week to February 10 - CFTC
Zinc
Zinc slipped 0.76% to close at 321.15, tracking a broader market sell-off as Chinese participants stepped away for the Lunar New Year holiday. Sentiment was also weighed down by rising inventories, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumping 23.1% week-on-week. Demand has softened after downstream buyers completed pre-holiday restocking, and inventories are expected to build further during the seasonal lull. That said, losses were capped by ongoing supply concerns. While mined output rose last year, refined production fell around 2% due to smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Annaka plant. Temporary mine suspensions in Southwest and Central China are also expected to trim concentrate supply in the near term. Meanwhile, the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project point to improving global supply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market posted a small 7,700-ton deficit in November, though it remains in surplus for the year overall. China’s refined zinc output hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 7.65%. Support is seen at 320, with further downside toward 318.8. Resistance stands at 322.8, and a break higher could test 324.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 318.8-324.4.
* Zinc dropped amid a broader sell-off, as Chinese investors left for the long Lunar New Year break.
* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 23.1% from last Friday, the exchange said.
Aluminium
Aluminium slipped 0.5% to settle at 307.7, pressured by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium products. Even so, the downside was limited. Supply risks remain in focus after South32 confirmed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance due to power shortages and unresolved issues with Eskom. Globally, tightening supply is colliding with firm demand. In China, smelters are operating close to the government’s capacity cap, while U.S. tariffs have sharply reduced imports and pushed up domestic prices. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 21.3% last week, but broader global inventories remain relatively low. Reflecting this backdrop, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per ton, citing supply constraints and steady demand growth. China’s production remains robust. December output hit a record 3.87 million tons, with full-year production exceeding 45 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Meanwhile, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary output rose 0.5% year-on-year in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 11.73%. Support is seen at 306.4, with further downside toward 305.2. Resistance stands at 309.3, and a break above could open the door to 311.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 305.2-311.
* Aluminium dropped as U.S. President Donald Trump plans to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods.
* However, downside seen limited as South32, confirmed its Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance next month.
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 21.3% from last Friday, the exchange said.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices fell sharply by 3.48% to settle at 14,822, pressured by expectations of a surge in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next 10–15 days. Improved acreage following favourable rains has also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, area is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is pegged at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the overall rise in availability. Weather disruptions continue to cloud the outlook. Heavy rains in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka affected yields, with nearly 15% of the Marathwada crop hit by waterlogging and disease. Despite localized losses, Maharashtra’s output is still expected to rise on higher acreage. Demand, both domestic and export, remains supportive. April–November exports rose 4.88% year-on-year to 127,530 tonnes, while imports dropped 44.5%, tightening supply dynamics. In Nizamabad, spot prices eased 1.37% to ?15,555.35. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.19% and prices falling ?534. Immediate support is seen at 14,716, with further downside toward 14,608. Resistance stands at 15,016, and a recovery above this level could test 15,208.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14608-15208.
* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* However, downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15555.35 Rupees dropped by -1.37 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices fell sharply by 3.05% to settle at 22,255 as fresh crop arrivals began entering key mandis, with supplies expected to gather pace from March. Comfortable old stocks and subdued export interest added to the pressure. Traders noted that the end of the retail season and muted buying from overseas markets have dampened sentiment, with current export demand largely being met from existing inventories. That said, the downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat has been slow, down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, raising concerns about final output. At Unjha, arrivals remain thin and premium-quality cumin continues to fetch better prices, even though the spot market eased 0.43% to ?22,540.70. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags, with a significant portion likely to be carried forward. National production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Globally, reduced output in Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and lower estimates in China offer some support, though weak overall export demand keeps gains in check. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 10.14% and prices dropping ?700. Support is seen at 22,000, with further weakness toward 21,740. Resistance stands at 22,650, and a rebound could test 23,040.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21740-23040.
* Jeera settled down as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22540.7 Rupees dropped by -0.43 percent.
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