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Gold

Gold prices declined in the previous session, settling 0.83% lower at 160,299, as escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran pushed the U.S. Dollar Index higher and reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts. Comments from Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, also weighed on sentiment after she indicated that inflation remains too high to justify immediate policy easing. As a result, policymakers at the Federal Reserve appear inclined to keep borrowing costs steady for now, even as markets continue to anticipate possible rate cuts later in the year. Meanwhile, central bank demand remains a supportive factor for the precious metal. The People's Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 16 consecutive months, raising its holdings to 74.22 million troy ounces by the end of February. In the physical market, demand in India weakened due to volatile prices, while buying interest in China remained firm with premiums hovering around $13–$15 per ounce. Central bank activity continues to influence the market, with purchases reported from institutions such as the Central Bank of Uzbekistan and Bank Negara Malaysia, although overall global buying slowed slightly at the start of the year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.38% to 7,411 while prices dropped by Rs.1,335. Gold has immediate support at 159,330, and a break below this level could test 158,360. On the upside, resistance is seen at 161,390, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward 162,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158360-162480.

* Gold fell as an escalating Iran war squeezed world energy supplies, boosted the dollar and dampened hopes of interest-rate cuts.

* Fed’s Hammack said she sees no imminent need to change the stance of monetary policy in an economy where inflation is still “too high.”

* China's central bank kept purchasing gold for a 16th straight months

Silver

Silver prices ended the session slightly lower, settling 0.42% down at 267,160, as strength in the U.S. Dollar Index and fading expectations of near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve outweighed safe-haven demand linked to rising tensions in the Middle East. Concerns that higher energy prices could slow global economic growth and weaken industrial demand also weighed on sentiment. Comments from Fed officials reinforced the cautious outlook on monetary policy. Albert Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said current policy settings remain appropriate as inflation is still above target, while Jeffrey Schmid of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City noted that inflation continues to be a key concern even though the labor market remains relatively stable. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data showed mixed signals, with consumer credit rising $8.05 billion in January and the economy losing 92,000 jobs in February, adding to uncertainty around growth prospects. Despite the recent price decline, supply conditions in the physical market remain tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015, reflecting a sharp decline from the peak levels seen in 2021.  Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.47% to 6,022 while prices declined by Rs.1,125. Silver has immediate support at 262,310, with further downside potentially testing 257,460. On the upside, resistance is seen at 270,445, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 273,730.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 257460-273730.

* Silver dropped as a stronger dollar and fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts outweighed safe-haven demand.

* Silver faced further pressure from concerns that higher energy costs could slow global growth and dampen industrial demand

* Fed’s Musalem said he feels the current setting of the U.S. policy rate appropriately balances the current economic risks.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply in the previous session, settling 5.08% higher at 8,788, as supply concerns intensified following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit route. Restrictions on tanker traffic have forced several major Middle Eastern producers, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, to curb output as storage facilities quickly fill due to export bottlenecks. Prior to the escalation in tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia had already increased production as part of a contingency plan. According to surveys, output from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 530,000 barrels per day in February to 28.87 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia alone raising output by 250,000 bpd. Shipping data from Kpler also showed strong loading activity from Saudi export terminals, suggesting a significant rise in shipments ahead of the recent disruptions. Meanwhile, fundamental indicators remain mixed. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 3.475 million barrels, reaching 439.3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks declined. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.01% to 17,352 while prices jumped by Rs.425. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,009, with a break below potentially testing 7,229. On the upside, resistance is seen at 10,059, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 11,329.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7229-11329.

* Crude oil rose as major Middle Eastern producers started to cut output following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

* Kuwait halts oil production due to the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz

* US and two other G7 countries support coordinated emergency oil stock release

Natural gas

Natural gas prices ended the session lower, settling 1.76% down at 290.4, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced the risk premium across the energy complex. Hopes for a quicker de-escalation in the conflict involving Iran have eased fears of prolonged disruptions to global LNG trade. However, uncertainty still surrounds operations at QatarEnergy Ras Laffan LNG Facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub, raising concerns that supply constraints could emerge if disruptions persist, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. On the supply side, production in the United States remains strong. Data from LSEG shows average gas output in the Lower 48 states rising to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, compared with 109.2 bcfd in February, and close to the record high of 110.6 bcfd reached in December 2025. Demand forecasts suggest short-term fluctuations, with consumption expected to decline next week due to milder weather before rebounding as cooler conditions return. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. utilities withdrew 132 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in the latest week, bringing total inventories down to 1.886 trillion cubic feet. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 11.38% to 20,050 while prices dropped by Rs.5.2. Natural gas has immediate support at 275.9, with further downside potentially testing 261.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 313.9, and a move above this level could push prices toward 337.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.4-337.4.

* Natural gas fell as the prospect of a swift de-escalation in the Middle East eased the risk premium.

* Uncertainty surrounding the timeline for restoring full operations at QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan facility, intensified worries about a supply shortfall.

* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 2 this week to 132.

Copper

Copper prices slipped slightly in the previous session, settling 0.31% lower at 1,193.45, mainly weighed down by rising inventories on the London Metal Exchange. Stocks in LME warehouses increased by 2,450 tonnes to 284,325 tonnes, the highest level since October 2024, with notable inflows reported in Singapore and New Orleans. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also climbed 8.59% from the previous week, adding to concerns about near-term supply availability. In China, the world’s largest copper consumer, policymakers set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5–5% as the country continues to deal with deflationary pressures and higher U.S. tariffs. At the same time, the government’s 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes stronger investment in innovation, high-tech industries, and research while encouraging higher household consumption. Despite the cautious outlook, better-than-expected private factory data from China helped limit the downside in copper prices. Longer-term sentiment remains constructive. Goldman Sachs now expects copper prices to reach $12,200 per ton by the end of 2026, while UBS sees prices potentially touching $15,000 per ton within 13 months as global consumption grows and supply deficits widen. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.71% to 15,932 while prices dropped by Rs.3.75. Copper has immediate support at 1,183.3, with further downside potentially testing 1,173.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,201.4, and a break above this level could push prices toward 1,209.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1173.2-1209.4.

* Copper prices came under pressure due to high London Metal Exchange inventories

* Chile, exported $4.7 billion of the copper in February, up 16.3% from the same month a year earlier.

* Citi said it turns bullish on copper in the near term and expects prices to rise to $14,000 a ton within the next three months.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher in the previous session, settling 0.42% up at 325.2, supported mainly by tight inventories and ongoing supply concerns from mine disruptions and delays. Although stocks in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last week, the broader market continues to remain cautious about overall supply availability. Geopolitical developments also influenced sentiment. The ongoing conflict involving Iran, now in its sixth day, has heightened uncertainty across global markets and strengthened the U.S. dollar, which typically weighs on base metals demand. Policymakers in China have meanwhile set a 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5%, slightly below last year’s pace, while signaling that the People’s Bank of China could use flexible monetary tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to support the economy. On the supply front, the global zinc market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, although higher mine output has gradually narrowed the gap. Production has been supported by the restart of Tara Mine and the ramp-up of the Kipushi Mine. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest falling 6.96% to 3,745 while prices gained Rs.1.35. Zinc has immediate support at 323.1, with further downside potentially testing 321.0. On the upside, resistance is seen at 327.3, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 329.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 321-329.4.

* Zinc gains as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* China's central bank vows flexible, efficient cuts in reserve ratio, rates in 2026

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped 1.16% to settle at 335.95, mainly due to profit booking after the recent sharp rally driven by supply concerns linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminium supply, and disruptions have emerged after shipments from major producers were affected. Both Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure on deliveries, forcing U.S. buyers to seek alternative cargoes from Asia. Market tightness remains evident despite the price correction. On the London Metal Exchange, aluminium spreads have moved into their largest backwardation since 2022, indicating stronger demand for near-term supply. LME aluminium inventories declined by 2,250 tonnes to 456,875 tonnes, the lowest since July 2025. Meanwhile, stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.8% to 394,498 tonnes, the highest since April 2020, reflecting increased availability in China. Supply risks have intensified after Norsk Hydro announced a controlled shutdown of its aluminium joint venture in Qatar amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Several banks remain bullish on the longer-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 12.69% to 3,708 while prices declined by Rs.3.95. Aluminium has immediate support at 330.3, and a break below could test 324.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 346.2, and a move above this level could push prices toward 356.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.7-356.5.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rallied as escalating Middle East hostilities disrupted supply.

* London metals exchange aluminum spread trades are seeing the largest backwardation since 2022, indicating market tightness.

* LME aluminium inventories slipped by 2,250 tons to 456,875 tons, the lowest since July 2025

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower in the previous session, settling 0.42% down at 14,606, mainly due to expectations of higher arrivals in the coming weeks. Fresh turmeric supplies in Erode are likely to rise sharply over the next 10–15 days, which has created near-term pressure on prices. At the same time, increased acreage supported by favourable monsoon rains has also added to expectations of higher production this season. Despite the recent dip, the downside appears limited as arrivals in many markets are still below normal and both domestic and export demand remain firm. Farmers and stockists have already reduced inventories significantly, which is providing a supportive base ahead of the new crop supplies. Production estimates suggest that India’s dried turmeric output could reach around 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks may restrict the overall rise in availability. Weather conditions have also played a role in shaping the crop outlook. Excess rainfall during August–September affected parts of Marathwada, leading to waterlogging and disease issues across nearly 15% of the area. Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka were impacted, although higher acreage is still expected to push production higher overall. Export demand remains healthy, particularly from Europe and the United States. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.65% to 18,360 while prices declined by Rs.62. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,238, with further downside potentially testing 13,868. On the upside, resistance is seen at 14,822, and a break above this level could push prices toward 15,036.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13868-15036.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15272.55 Rupees dropped by -0.58 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 0.75% up at 22,035, mainly supported by lower sowing and tight near-term supplies. In Gujarat, sowing has declined 14.34% year-on-year to about 4.08 lakh hectares, raising concerns about overall output for the season. As a result, India’s cumin production for 2026 is currently estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Crop risks have also increased due to reports of aphid infestations across key growing areas in Rajasthan. However, gains were capped as the arrival of the new crop has started in several mandis, and supplies are expected to increase more significantly from March onwards. At Unjha, one of the country’s largest cumin markets, arrivals remain limited for now, with premium-quality cumin still fetching better prices. Export demand from the Gulf region and China has shown some improvement but remains sensitive to price levels, while overall export activity continues to be relatively subdued due to adequate stocks. Global supply dynamics are also influencing sentiment. Production estimates in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan remain modest, while geopolitical and logistical challenges in some of these regions are limiting supplies. Meanwhile, export data shows that India’s jeera shipments during April–December 2025 declined 12.08% year-on-year, reflecting softer overseas demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 8.26% to 3,501 while prices gained Rs.165. Jeera has immediate support at 21,640, with further downside potentially testing 21,250. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,280, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,530.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21250-22530.

* Jeera gained as Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

* Rising risks of Aphid infestation have been reported across key growing regions in Rajasthan.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21551.6 Rupees dropped by -0.09 percent.