Commodity Research - Morning Insig1ht - 23 Jan 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Gold extended its historic rally, surging past the $4,900/ Oz, yesterday for the first time and settling at $4,936, a gain of over 2% supported by geopolitical uncertainty, a softer U.S. dollar, and firm expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year. Silver climbed over 3% to a fresh record near $96.6 as dollar eased after Trump withdrew tariff threats against European nations opposing his Greenland proposal. U.S. macro data showed mixed picture as jobless claims remained low, GDP growth was revised slightly higher, and consumer spending stayed resilient, while income growth softened. Core PCE inflation remained steady and in line with forecasts. Today, gold touched fresh highs of over $4,967 while silver at $99 as market pricing in two rate cuts in the 2 nd half of the year with geopolitical risk concerns, bullion retains a strong bias, though elevated levels may invite short-term consolidation ahead of upcoming PMI and consumer sentiment data.
Crude Oil – WTI crude slipped to $59/bbl yesterday, weighed down by prospects of easing geopolitical tensions after Ukraine's President Zelensky announced two-day trilateral talks in the UAE starting Friday, involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine, following his Davos meeting with Trump. Adding to the bearish sentiment, the latest EIA inventory report showed US crude oil stocks rose by 3.6 million barrels for the week ending January 21, while gasoline and distillate inventories also increased by 6.0 million barrels and 3.3 million barrels, respectively. Today, oil prices rebounded sharply to near $60/bbl, supported by broader risk-on sentiment and expectations of further policy support from the PBoC to bolster economic growth.
Natural Gas – NYMEX natural gas futures held on to gains and settled above $5/mmBtu, as frigid weather across the US is expected to lift heating demand and potentially draw down inventories.
Base metals –Base metals witnessed a mixed performance on Thursday, with copper easing back to around $12,755/ton after its recent record run, while aluminium and zinc managed to edge higher. The cooling in copper prices reflects early signs of demand fatigue, particularly in China, as elevated prices begin to weigh on purchasing activity, evidenced by a sharp drop in the Yangshan import premium. At the same time, the inventory tightness seen earlier has started to unwind, with fresh inflows into LME warehouses easing near-term supply pressure and flattening spreads. However, downside appears contained, with metals trading higher today as supply risks linger, including an ongoing labor strike at a Chilean mine, while a softer dollar and elevated geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the complex.
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