Spot Gold Seen Trading in $5,000–$5,200 Range Near Term - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is likely to trade within a broad range of $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce in the near term. A firm dollar may act as a primary headwind for bullion prices. While, precious metals remain supported by safe-haven demand stemming from concerns over protracted conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Furthermore, prices are expected to benefit from persistent central bank accumulation and robust ETF demand. Market focus now shifts to key U.S. economic data and further developments in the Middle East for directional clarity.
* MCX Gold April is expected to find the floor near Rs.159,000 and move higher towards Rs.163,500.
* International Spot silver is hovering above the band of $78 and $85, signaling an up move towards $92. MCX Silver May is expected to move towards Rs.278,000 as long as it holds above Rs.264,000. Only a move above Rs.278,000, it would rise towards Rs.284,000
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to regain strength amid recovery in Chinese demand and improved risk sentiment. In China, rising spot premiums following the recent price dip are providing renewed support. Furthermore, depleting concentrate supplies are likely to spur buying activity, while easing geopolitical uncertainty could trigger a relief rally. In the near term MCX Copper March is projected to move toward Rs.1,214, provided it holds above Rs.1,188
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above ?332 and rise towards Rs.342 level. A move above Rs.342 it would rise towards Rs.348. Prices are expected to remain higher due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs.328 level and move lower towards Rs.321 level
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is currently hovering around $85 per barrel, representing a 5% drop today. Prices are projected to remain volatile with a downward bias as concerns over prolonged global supply disruptions ease. A high-level call between Russian President Putin and President Trump regarding an "expedited settlement" has further eroded the risk premium. We expect extreme volatility to persist amid ongoing Middle East unrest; on the downside, $80 serves as key support, while the $92–$95 zone acts as an immediate hurdle.
* MCX Crude oil March is likely to open gap down move towards Rs.8000 as long as it trades under Rs.9200.
* NYMEX Natural gas is likely to trade lower on easing concerns over prolonged supply disruption. MCX Natural gas March future is expected to slide towards Rs.275 as long as it trades under Rs.300.
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