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Gold

Gold yesterday settled sharply higher by 2.40% at 1,23,970, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and a series of weak U.S. economic indicators that heightened concerns over a global slowdown. The U.S. economy lost jobs in October, particularly in the government and retail sectors, while a rise in corporate layoffs linked to cost-cutting and AI adoption added to worries. U.S. consumer sentiment also fell to its lowest in over three years amid the prolonged 40-day government shutdown, further boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a 67% probability of a rate cut in December. ETF flows also reflected renewed investor interest, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings rising 0.16% to 1,042.06 tonnes. Globally, gold demand climbed 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025 to 1,313 tonnes, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin purchases and a 134% jump in ETF inflows, according to the World Gold Council. Central bank purchases rose 10% to 219.9 tonnes, while mine output and recycling increased by 2% and 6%, respectively. However, jewellery demand fell 23% as high prices discouraged retail buying. In India and China, physical demand remained subdued due to volatile prices and policy changes, leading to discounts in domestic markets. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 2.7% to 12,558 while prices surged 2,903. Support is at 1,22,445 and 1,20,915, while resistance is seen at 1,24,830 and 1,25,685.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 120915-125685.

* Gold prices rose buoyed by expectations of another Fed interest rate cut in December.

* Support also seen amid a slew of weak economic data that raised global slowdown worries.

* U.S. consumer sentiment weakened to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in early November.

Silver

Silver yesterday surged by 4.04% to 1,53,691 amid rising expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and persistent uncertainty over the American economic outlook. Weak U.S. private job data coupled with a steep decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 50.3 in November—the lowest since June 2022—boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals. Market participants are now pricing in nearly a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, China’s decision to suspend additional export controls on some rare earth metals and lithium components added to global optimism, though signs of progress in ending the U.S. government shutdown slightly curbed safe-haven appeal. On the physical front, silver inventories in London vaults rose by 6.8% to 26,255 metric tons, valued at $41.3 billion, as inflows from the U.S. and China helped ease a recent liquidity crunch. Short-term borrowing rates, though lower, remain historically elevated. Around 1,568 tons of silver have moved out of COMEX warehouses since early October, yet total inventories remain higher year-on-year. Investment demand remains robust, with global silver ETP holdings climbing to 1.13 billion ounces by June 2025—up 95 million ounces in H1—marking their highest valuation above $40 billion. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped 16.74% to 16,213 while prices jumped 5,963. Support is at 1,50,865 and 1,48,035, while resistance is seen at 1,55,200 and 1,56,705.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 148035-156705.

* Silver rose amid uncertainty over the US economic outlook

* Concerns over the US economy boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the price.

* Senators reach a tentative deal to end the government shutdown.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.62% at 5,328 amid renewed optimism that a deal to reopen the U.S. government would boost fuel demand. The positive sentiment was partly offset by lingering concerns over global oversupply after U.S. President Donald Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil and gas purchases. Further adding to market dynamics, Russian oil major Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oilfield following sanctions from the U.S. and U.K., disrupting operations and payments. Despite these developments, global supply concerns persisted as U.S. crude production rose by 86,000 barrels per day to a record 13.8 million bpd in August, according to EIA data, signaling robust output even as inventories continued to build. U.S. crude inventories rose sharply by 5.202 million barrels in the week ending October 31—well above market expectations—while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 4.73 million and 0.643 million barrels respectively, suggesting mixed demand trends in refined products. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports rose 8.2% year-on-year in October to 48.36 million metric tons (11.4 million bpd), reflecting strong refinery activity and continued import resilience, with total imports for the first ten months up 3.1% from last year. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell 7.46% to 10,538 while prices gained 33. Crude oil finds support at 5,272 and 5,216, while resistance is seen at 5,377 and 5,426, with a breakout above these levels likely to extend the bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5216-5426.

* Crude oil prices rose amid optimism that a deal to reopen the U.S. government would help lift demand.

* Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oilfield

* U.S. oil production rose to record highs in August, data from the EIA showed.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled lower by 0.96% at 382.1 amid record output, comfortable storage levels, and forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through late November, keeping demand subdued. The downside, however, remained limited as near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals supported overall consumption. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy firms injected 33 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 31, slightly below expectations and smaller than the typical seasonal build. Total inventories stood at 3,915 bcf, about 0.2% lower than last year but still 4.3% above the five-year average, signaling comfortable supply conditions. Meanwhile, data from LSEG showed average gas output in the Lower 48 states rising to 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107 bcfd in October, marking a new monthly record. Meteorologists expect temperatures across most regions to stay warmer than usual until November 21, likely reducing heating demand. The EIA’s latest outlook projects both U.S. natural gas production and demand to hit record highs in 2025, with LNG exports set to rise to 14.7 bcfd next year and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation as open interest dropped by 7.35% to 17,956 while prices fell 3.7. Natural gas has support at 373.9 and 365.7, while resistance is seen at 395.1 and 408.1, with a breakout above these levels potentially triggering further upside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 365.7-408.1.

* Natural gas eased on record output so far this month, ample amounts of fuel in storage.

* However, downside seen limited as near-record flows to LNG export plants boosted demand for the fuel.

* EIA said energy firms injected 33 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended October 31.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled higher by 1.24% at 1012.75 as risk appetite improved amid optimism that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown could soon end, following Senate approval of initial funding for key departments. The inclusion of copper in the U.S. administration’s expanded list of critical minerals also lent support, highlighting its growing importance in electric vehicles, power grids, and data centers. Market sentiment was further boosted by speculation that Beijing might impose stricter controls on copper smelting capacity to curb overproduction. On the supply side, concerns persisted as major miners such as Glencore and Anglo American reported weaker output in the first nine months of the year, while a fatal mudslide at Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesian mine disrupted more than 3% of global supply. The Yangshan copper premium remained steady at $35 per ton, though well below May’s highs above $100, reflecting cautious physical demand. Meanwhile, China’s October copper imports fell 9.7% to 438,000 tonnes amid high global prices, bringing total imports for January–October to 4.46 million tonnes, down 3% year-on-year. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the refined copper market is expected to show a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025 before turning into a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026. Technically, the market witnessed short covering with open interest dropping by 11.24% to 8,643 while prices rose 12.45. Copper has immediate support at 1007.4 and 1002, while resistance is seen at 1015.8 and 1018.8, with a breakout above these levels potentially extending the uptrend.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1002-1018.8.

* Copper climbed amid optimism that the historic US government shutdown may soon end.

* Trump administration added 10 minerals to its list of materials critical to the US economy and national security, including copper.

* Speculation also grew that Beijing could target the copper refining industry next in its efforts to curb overcapacity.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 0.88% at 304.7 as improved sentiment from China’s October inflation data supported the market. The easing of deflationary pressures, with the consumer price index rising 0.2% and factory-gate price declines narrowing to 2.1%, lifted optimism about an economic recovery in the world’s largest metals consumer. Additionally, progress in the U.S. Senate toward passing a funding bill to end the record-breaking government shutdown added to risk appetite. However, upside remained capped by weak manufacturing PMIs in both China and the U.S., signaling subdued industrial activity. On the supply side, global zinc inventories outside China continued to plunge, with LME stocks at just 35,200 tons — near their lowest since March 2023 and down about 85% from the start of the year. This has led to a steep cash-to-three-month premium of $170 on the LME, highlighting tightness in near-term supply. In contrast, China’s social zinc stocks climbed to around 162,000 tons by late October, creating a stark divergence between domestic surplus and overseas shortage. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global market surplus of 47,900 tons in August, bringing the year-to-date surplus to 154,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons a year earlier. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest rose by 4.54% to 2,807 while prices gained 2.65. Zinc has support at 303 and 301.3, while resistance is seen at 306 and 307.3 — a breakout above these levels could extend the bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 301.3-307.3.

* Zinc gains after October data from China signalled easing deflation and lifted confidence in economic recovery.

* The producer price index in October fell 2.1% year-on-year, easing from a 2.3% decline in September.

* United States Senate were close to pass a bill to fund the government through January 2026, ending the record-breaking shutdown.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled higher by 0.35% at 273.45, supported by optimism that the prolonged U.S. government shutdown may soon end and by encouraging signs of easing deflation in China. The improved macro outlook boosted sentiment, while limited output growth in China continued to underpin prices. Investor flows into LME aluminium contracts have surged in recent months, reflecting growing expectations that the global surplus phase may be ending as China’s smelting capacity nears the government-imposed 45 million-ton cap. Additionally, the European aluminium premium climbed sharply to $328 per ton from $183 in June, signaling tighter physical market conditions. Supply concerns also lent support, with production disruptions at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter, where one potline was suspended due to electrical failure, and Alcoa’s decision to shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia citing poor bauxite quality. Century Aluminium likewise curtailed operations at its Iceland plant by two-thirds, amplifying worries over near-term supply constraints. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought aluminium and product imports rose 35.4% year-on-year in September to 360,000 tons, with total imports for January–September up 5.7% at 3.01 million tons, highlighting robust demand trends. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased by 2.17% to 3,152 contracts while prices rose 0.95. Aluminium has immediate support at 272.6 and 271.8, while resistance is seen at 274.6 and 275.8. A breakout above these resistance levels could extend the upside momentum toward the next resistance zone.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 271.8-275.8.

* Aluminium prices gained buoyed by hopes that the U.S. government shutdown may end soon.

* Support also seen helped by prospects of improved demand and limited output growth in China.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.2% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled higher by 2.55% at 15,440 as adverse weather in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka damaged standing crops. In Erode, continuous rainfall has led to disease outbreaks and high humidity, making crop preservation difficult. Crop losses in Nanded are estimated at nearly 15% of the turmeric area, further tightening supply. Additionally, stocks held by farmers in Warangal are almost exhausted, and limited fresh arrivals have added to the bullish tone. Support also came from steady demand at key mandis, particularly in Duggirala, where strong buyer interest continues, and new crop arrivals are fetching a premium over older stock due to better quality. However, gains were capped by expectations of higher acreage this season, as favorable early rains encouraged farmers to expand turmeric planting by nearly 15–20%, bringing total acreage for 2024–25 to around 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. On the export front, shipments rose by 3.31% during April–August 2025 to 80,156 tonnes, with August exports up 7.27% year-on-year and 13.71% month-on-month, reflecting improving overseas demand. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 2.05% to 11,710 while prices rose 384. Turmeric now finds support at 15,206 and below that at 14,974, whereas resistance is seen at 15,664, with a move above likely pushing prices towards 15,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14974-15890.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15156.25 Rupees gained by 2.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by 0.75% at 19,755, pressured by subdued export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders noted that the decline was mainly due to weak overseas buying interest and sufficient domestic stock levels meeting current export requirements. Market sentiment also remained under pressure amid comfortable supplies and limited fresh demand, although lower arrivals during the Diwali holidays provided some cushion to the downside. Support is expected from the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on jeera to 5%, which is likely to boost FMCG exports and domestic consumption in the coming months. Fundamentally, farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the season’s end, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. India’s jeera production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, mainly due to reduced sowing in key states. Production estimates stand at 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. Meanwhile, adverse weather in other producing nations such as China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan has trimmed their output. Despite this, India’s export demand remains weak, with shipments falling 17.02% year-on-year during April–August 2025 to 85,977 tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 18.93% to 1,593 while prices fell 150. Jeera has support at 19,670 and 19,590, while resistance is seen at 19,860 and 19,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19590-19970.

* Jeera dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Traders attributed the fall mainly to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity on the part of foreign buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19932.05 Rupees dropped by -0.32 percent.

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