Naturalgas trading range for the day is 353.7-423.7 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices edged higher, settling up by 0.15% at 1,38,097, supported by expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve and elevated geopolitical risks. US economic growth remained resilient in the third quarter, with GDP expanding at a faster pace, while labour market indicators continued to show gradual moderation. Despite a divided policy outlook among Fed officials, markets are still pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 as inflation cools and employment conditions soften. Geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela, particularly US actions to blockade oil tankers, have reinforced safe-haven demand across commodity markets. Gold has now gained around 70% this year, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, underpinned by sustained central bank purchases and consistent ETF inflows. Physical market demand remained subdued at elevated price levels. In India, discounts widened to over a one-month high, with dealers offering up to $37 per ounce, while in China discounts touched $64 per ounce, the steepest in more than five years. In contrast, premiums were modest across Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan. On the investment front, the People’s Bank of China extended its buying streak to a thirteenth month, while global gold ETFs recorded a sixth consecutive month of inflows, lifting total holdings to a record 3,932 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.62% to 14,550 as prices rose 212. Support is seen at 1,37,365, below which 1,36,635 may be tested, while resistance is placed at 1,38,750, with a further upside target near 1,39,405.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 136635-139405.
* Gold hits fresh record as rate-cut expectations fuel buying
* US economic growth stays solid despite moderating labor market
* Venezuela tensions lift safe-haven demand across commodity markets
Silver
Silver prices extended their rally, settling higher by 1.88% at 2,23,790, supported by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand. Markets are increasingly factoring in two rate reductions next year as mixed US economic signals strengthen the case for policy easing. While third-quarter GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualised pace, softer consumer confidence in December and flat factory output in November have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may turn more accommodative in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions further underpinned prices after the US imposed a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, lifting risk premiums across commodities. Year-to-date, silver has surged nearly 149%, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit, strong industrial consumption and its inclusion on the US Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals. Supply-side concerns intensified as Chinese silver inventories dropped to their lowest level in a decade, following record exports of over 660 tonnes in October to ease a squeeze in London. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses fell to the lowest since 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes also declined sharply. Despite a 3.5% monthly increase in London vault holdings to 27,187 tonnes, liquidity outside China remains tight. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.1% to 12,566 alongside a 4,137 price gain. Support is seen at 2,20,050, below which 2,16,310 may be tested, while resistance stands at 2,25,980, with further upside towards 2,28,170.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 216310-228170.
* Silver climbed reach a fresh high, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand.
* Structural supply deficit continues to tighten silver market
* Strong industrial demand supports long-term silver consumption
Crude oil
Crude oil prices edged higher, settling up by 0.34% at 5,272, supported mainly by escalating geopolitical tensions. Markets drew strength from continued US efforts to intercept oil tankers near Venezuela as Washington intensifies pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s administration. Although Venezuelan crude represents a relatively small share of global supply, any disruption threatens a key revenue stream for the country and adds to risk premiums. Further support came from renewed hostilities between Ukraine and Russia, where strikes targeted Black Sea port infrastructure and nearby vessels, raising concerns over the safety of key routes for Russian energy exports. However, gains were capped by mixed inventory signals and an overall oversupplied outlook. API data indicated a 2.4 million barrel rise in US crude inventories last week, alongside increases in gasoline and distillate stocks. Official data showed US crude stocks fell by 1.274 million barrels, with notable draws at Cushing, Oklahoma, but sharp builds in gasoline and distillates highlighted weak end-user demand. Oil remains on track for an annual loss exceeding 18%, as supply is expected to outpace demand next year. On the macro front, the IEA marginally narrowed its projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd by revising demand growth higher and trimming supply growth. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down marginally by 0.05% to 18,698 while prices rose 18. Support is seen at 5,249, below which 5,226 may be tested. Resistance stands at 5,299, and a breakout could push prices towards 5,326.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5226-5326.
* Crude oil rose supported by escalating geopolitical tensions.
* The US continues efforts to intercept another oil tanker near Venezuela.
* API data showed that crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week
Natural gas
Natural gas prices eased slightly, settling down by 0.26% at 379.8, as expectations of relatively warmer winter temperatures reduced near-term heating demand for both natural gas and electricity. Softer weather outlooks have limited upside momentum, particularly after recent sharp gains. However, downside remains restricted due to structurally strong export demand, with LNG flows continuing near record levels. Average deliveries to the eight major US LNG export facilities rose to around 18.5 bcfd so far in December, surpassing November’s previous record, highlighting sustained strength in overseas demand. On the supply side, winter demand is projected to exceed production at times, with storage withdrawals bridging the gap. US energy firms withdrew 167 bcf from storage during the week ended December 12, taking total inventories to 3,579 bcf. Storage levels are now 1.7% below last year but remain 0.9% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable but tightening balances as the withdrawal season progresses. Meanwhile, production remains elevated near record highs. The EIA forecasts dry gas output to rise to 107.7 bcfd in 2025 and 109.1 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is also expected to stay historically strong. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by 65.36% to 4,536 while prices slipped marginally by 1. Natural gas has support at 366.8, below which prices could test 353.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 401.8, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward 423.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 353.7-423.7.
* Natural gas dropped as slightly warmer temperatures this winter lower natural gas and electricity demand.
* Inventories began the season above the five-year average, slightly below last winter, and are expected to remain robust.
* At the same time, production hovers at a record high.
Copper
Copper advanced strongly, settling up by 1.47% at 1,156.6, supported by tightening supply conditions and robust US macroeconomic momentum. The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years during Q3, driven by resilient consumer spending, exports, and industrial activity, which underpins demand from copper-intensive sectors. Supply-side concerns intensified amid years of underinvestment, recurring mine disruptions, and plans by China’s top smelters to cut output by over 10% in 2026 to address negative processing fees. Trade uncertainty and US tariff risks also encouraged pre-emptive stockpiling, particularly for shipments into the US, while a weaker dollar and expectations of further Fed rate cuts supported speculative interest. Structurally, long-term demand remains robust due to EVs, renewable energy, power grids, and AI infrastructure, with strength across other base metals reinforcing overall market tightness. Data from the ICSG showed a refined copper surplus of about 122,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025, despite apparent usage rising 5.5%. China’s imports declined for a second month in November, reflecting higher prices and softer import appetite, while Yangshan premiums eased, signalling weaker demand for imported material. At the same time, more refined copper was diverted to the US, pushing Comex inventories to record highs. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping sharply by 36.15% to 2,775 as prices rose 16.75. Copper has support at 1,144.4, below which 1,132 could be tested. Resistance is seen at 1,168.6, and a breakout may lead prices toward 1,180.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1132-1180.4.
* Copper hits record high amid tightening global supply conditions
* Strong US economic growth boosts demand for copper-intensive sectors.
* China smelters plan over 10% output cut in 2026
Zinc
Zinc prices eased, settling down by 0.48% at 303.3, pressured primarily by higher Chinese output and renewed concerns over demand. China’s zinc production rose 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 metric tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, following a strong 17.3% growth recorded earlier. Sentiment was further weighed by a fresh set of weak macro indicators from China, including slower factory output and retail sales growth, alongside worsening property investment and floor-area sales, highlighting continued softness in domestic demand. However, downside in prices remained limited. Thin year-end trading conditions, a weaker US dollar, and speculative buying offered some support, while supply-side concerns persisted. Zinc concentrate production is expected to decline month-on-month as several mines enter maintenance. A Central China zinc mine is planning a routine shutdown, while a Southwest China mine, having largely met its annual output target, is scheduled for maintenance in December, potentially reducing concentrate output by around 700 metric tons in metal content. Additionally, Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored inventories fell 5.7% week-on-week. On the global front, the ILZSG reported that the zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tons in October, while the refined market showed a surplus of 76,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 28.11% to 1,074 as prices slipped 1.45. Zinc has support at 300.3, below which 297.1 may be tested, while resistance stands at 307.7, with an upside target of 311.9 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 297.1-311.9.
* Zinc dropped as China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons
* Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 5.7% from last week.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices advanced by 0.6% to settle at 286.1, tracking strength on the LME and hovering near their highest levels in more than three years, as supply-side concerns continued to dominate sentiment. Tight availability remains the key driver, with China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, reiterating its commitment to preventing overcapacity in metal production to counter deflationary pressures. With output expected to breach the 45 million-ton cap this year, Chinese smelters are being forced to restrain production growth in 2026, prompting more capped supply to be sold domestically rather than exported. As a result, China’s aluminium exports fell 9.2% year-on-year in November. Further supply risks persist globally. Chinese smelters’ overseas expansion plans in Indonesia have faced setbacks due to elevated energy costs and regulatory uncertainties. In parallel, high power costs, equipment failures, bauxite sourcing challenges, and geopolitical risks have disrupted operations at key smelters in countries including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, reinforcing the tightening supply outlook. On the demand side, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products declined 14% year-on-year to 240,000 metric tons in November, although cumulative imports for the first 11 months of 2025 rose 4.4% to 3.60 million tons. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 23.97% to 920 while prices gained 1.7. Aluminium finds support at 284.3, with a further downside risk toward 282.5, while resistance is seen at 287.5, and a break above could open the way to 288.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 282.5-288.9.
* Aluminium gains tracking LME prices, near the highest in over three years amid growing concerns of low supply.
* Smelters forced to halt output growth plans for 2026
* China aluminum exports fall 9.2% year-on-year in November
Turmeric
Turmeric prices edged lower, settling down by 0.61% at 16,702, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favourable monsoon rains during the ongoing sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as market arrivals continue to stay below normal and both domestic as well as export demand remains firm. Reports indicate that farmers and stockists have significantly reduced carryover stocks, providing a supportive base ahead of the arrival of the new crop. Yield losses have been reported in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka due to excess rains, partially offsetting the impact of higher planted area. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, around 4% higher year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the effective increase in availability. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September caused disease and waterlogging issues in parts of Marathwada, affecting nearly 15% of the area. Despite localized yield losses, Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags. Other producing states are projected to add around 40 lakh bags, supported by improved acreage and IPM adoption, aiding export-grade supply. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, reflecting steady overseas demand from Europe and the US. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.4% to 13,775 as prices declined 102. Turmeric finds support at 16,426, below which it may test 16,148. Resistance is seen at 16,916, and a breakout could push prices toward 17,128.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16148-17128.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15641.2 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices edged higher, settling up by 0.27% at 21,880, as weather disruptions and delayed sowing continued to underpin market sentiment. In Gujarat, sowing as of 15 December 2025 stood at 3.24 lakh hectares, down sharply by nearly 14% from last year, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Low arrivals at Unjha have further supported prices, with good-quality cumin attracting premiums. Supply tightness has also been reinforced by logistical and weather challenges across India and parts of the Middle East. However, upside remained capped amid comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand, as most current business is being met from available inventories following the end of the retail season. Export performance remains weak, with shipments during April–October 2025 down 13.21% year-on-year, reflecting cautious overseas buying despite some improvement from Gulf countries and China. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower due to reduced sowing, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat’s output is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, adverse weather has trimmed output expectations in China and other producing nations, though this has yet to translate into strong export demand for Indian cumin. GST reduction to 5% provides some support to domestic consumption and FMCG-linked exports. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.45% to 4,134 as prices gained 60. Jeera finds support at 21,580, with a further downside risk toward 21,270. Resistance is seen at 22,100, and a breakout above this level could test 22,310.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21270-22310.
* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 324,390 hectares down by 13.95% compared to last years 376,956 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21246.4 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.
