Gold may hold $3330 support, rise to $3390 on weak dollar, haven - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3330 and rise towards $3390 amid weak dollar and safe haven buying. Weaker set of US job numbers has increased the odd of September rate cut to 82%. Additionally, tariff concerns and weakness in the US economy would increase its investment outlook. A strong demand for global gold-backed ETFs in the 2 nd quarter and uncertain global trade policy, geopolitical turbulence would support prices to stay firm.
* On the data front, a strong put base at 3250 would act as strong support for prices. On the upside 3400 call strike has higher OI. MCX Gold October is expected to hold support near RS.99,000 and move higher towards RS.100,200 level.
* MCX Silver Sep is expected to hold the key support near RS.109,000 and move higher towards RS.112,200 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade lower amid risk off tone across the global markets. Global trade policies and higher tariff concerns by US would hurt risk sentiments and lower its demand outlook. Additionally, rising inventory levels on LME and improved mine supply in the first half of this year would also weigh on metal prices.
* MCX Copper August is expected to slide towards RS.870 as long as it trades under RS.885 level. A break below RS.870 level prices may turn weaker towards RS.865 level
* MCX Aluminum July is expected to face resistance near RS.252 level and correct towards RS.248 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move south towards RS.258 level as long as it stays under RS.264 level.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to trade lower after OPEC+ agreed to another larger production hike in September. OPEC+ nations agreed to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September. This move marked a full and early reversal of OPEC+’s production cut. Further, concerns about US tariffs hampering global economic growth and fuel consumption would weigh on oil prices to trade under the $70 per barrel. Meanwhile, growing bets of sanction on Russian oil would bring supply concerns and limit its downside.
* On the data front, 65 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 70 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would act as immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to dip towards RS.5740 level, as long as it stays below RS.6000 level.
* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to consolidate between RS.262 & RS.278 with a weaker bias. Only, a move above RS.278 it would turn bullish.
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