MCX Natural gas Jan is expected to face hurdle near Rs 350 and move lower towards Rs 320 level - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is expected to trade higher and move towards $4550 per ounce on weaker dollar and rising geopolitical risks. Recent military strike by Washington against ISIS in Nigeria further fueled safe haven bids in the yellow metal. Prices would also get support as most investors are betting for more rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. As per the CME Few-watch tool March rate cut probability has gone above 45%, whereas January rate cut probability held near 15%. For the day, spot gold is likely to hold support at $4470 and move higher towards $4550 per ounce. Only a move above $4550 per ounce it would rise towards $4600 per ounce.
* MCX Gold Feb is likely to move higher towards Rs138,800 as long as it holds above 136,800. A move above Rs138,800, it would rise towards Rs139,600.
* Spot International Silver is hovering near $74 per ounce. A move above $75 would open the doors towards $77.50. MCX Silver March holds strong support at Rs220,000 level and it is expected to move higher towards Rs230,000
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and move higher on tight supplies and strong demand from China and US. Prices would get support on expectation of output cut from China’s top smelters. Concerns over raw material availability and strong demand would fuel the rally in metal. Prices would also get support on growing bets of fresh round of stimulus from China to counter slowdown in the property sector. Moreover, increasing prospects of lose monetary policy would again strengthen the bullish bias in the red metal.
* MCX Copper Dec is expected to hold support near Rs1160 and move higher towards Rs1200 level. A move above Rs 1200 level it would open the doors towards Rs 1210-Rs 1215 level.
* MCX Aluminum Dec is expected to rise towards Rs 291 level as long as it stays above Rs 285 level. Only a move below Rs 285 it would slip towards Rs 281. MCX Zinc is likely to remain the band of Rs 303 and Rs 310. Only a move above Rs310 it would turn bullish towards Rs 315.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to hold support near $57 per barrel and move higher towards amid escalating geopolitical tension between US and Venezuela. Further rise in military activity and tightening stance on Venezuelan oil, with tougher enforcement has increased risks of temporary export disruptions. Meanwhile, higher global supplies from OPEC+ and expectation of steady flows in the first quarter would limit its upside. Meanwhile, investors will eye on further developments between Russia and Ukraine peace negotiation for more clues.
* On the data front, a strong put base at $55 would act as strong support. On the upside a strong call base at $60 would act as major hurdle. MCX Crude oil Jan is likely to hold support at Rs 5200 and move higher towards Rs5380 level. Only move above Rs 5380 it would rise towards Rs 5460.
* MCX Natural gas Jan is expected to face hurdle near Rs 350 and move lower towards Rs 320 level.
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