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Gold

Gold prices surged 1.44% to Rs.1,29,504, driven by rising confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut. A wave of dovish commentary from Fed officials, along with weaker-than-expected delayed economic data, has strengthened market expectations. Remarks from Kevin Hassett—considered a top contender to succeed Jerome Powell—aligning with President Trump’s support for easing further boosted sentiment. As a result, markets now assign over 85% probability to a 25 bps cut next month, sharply higher from 30% a week earlier, while also pricing in three more cuts by end-2026. Gold is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, supported by heavy central-bank buying and robust ETF inflows. However, high prices have dampened retail demand across major Asian hubs. In India, even with the wedding season underway, dealers were forced to offer discounts up to $18/oz, narrower than last week’s $21. In China, demand softened further following the removal of a VAT exemption on certain gold purchases, with prices ranging from slight premiums to discounts of up to $16/oz. Singapore and Hong Kong saw modest premiums of $2.50 and $1.80 respectively. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tonnes, led by a 17% jump in bar and coin demand and 134% surge in ETF inflows. Technically, fresh buying is evident as open interest jumped 20.44% to 12,131 with prices gaining Rs.1,837. Support lies at Rs.1,28,400, below which Rs.1,27,290 may be tested, while resistance is at Rs.1,30,110, with potential toward Rs.1,30,710 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 127290-130710.

* Gold rose as markets grow increasingly confident of a Fed rate cut in December.

* A series of remarks from Fed officials supporting further monetary easing, along with delayed economic data.

* Kevin Hassett, considered a leading contender to replace Powell, has publicly backed Trump’s push for another rate cut.

Silver

Silver prices surged 5.42% to Rs.1,74,981, supported by growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve will deliver further interest rate cuts. Market expectations for a 25 bps cut in December have jumped to 85%, up from 39% a week earlier, with three more cuts projected by end-2026. Sentiment strengthened after reports that Kevin Hassett, aligned with President Trump’s preference for lower rates, is the frontrunner to become the next Fed Chair. Since October, silver has repeatedly tested all-time highs, driven by global economic uncertainty, lower-rate prospects, and tightening physical supplies. COMEX inventories saw another sharp drawdown, with 7.6 million oz leaving warehouses, taking stocks to 462 million oz, the lowest since March. Meanwhile, LBMA inventories climbed to 844 million oz, the highest in a year, as arbitrage flows pushed metal from COMEX to London. Physical demand remains robust: India’s wedding season is lifting consumption, while potential US tariffs on silver add a new layer of risk. China’s silver ecosystem is also under stress, with SHFE stocks at their lowest since 2015 and SGE volumes at a nine-year low. Chinese exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, tightening domestic liquidity further. London vault holdings rose to 26,255 tons, up 6.8% MoM, helped by large inflows of US and Chinese silver that eased a severe liquidity squeeze. Technically, fresh buying is evident as open interest climbed 4.63% to 16,095, with prices rising by Rs.8,994. Support stands at Rs.1,69,475, below which Rs.1,63,975 is possible. Resistance is at Rs.1,77,980, and a breakout may extend gains toward Rs.1,80,985.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 163975-180985.

* Silver climbed amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.

* Markets now price in roughly an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, up sharply from about 39% a week ago.

* The global silver market faces a fresh risk after Chinese stockpiles sank to the lowest in a decade.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged higher, settling 0.64% up at 5324, though the broader tone in the market stayed cautious due to persistent oversupply signals. Geopolitical developments added a layer of uncertainty, with the U.S.-proposed Russia-Ukraine peace plan facing hurdles as Russia placed firm preconditions. While President Putin conveyed readiness to explore talks based on President Trump’s proposals—raising hopes that sanctions on Russian crude could eventually ease—most market participants doubt a swift breakthrough. Global supply expectations continued to weigh heavily. OPEC+ restored additional capacity and set a December output increase of 137,000 bpd, while producers outside the alliance kept adding barrels. Deutsche Bank projected a 2026 surplus of at least 2 million bpd, and Goldman Sachs warned that the ongoing supply wave is likely to keep prices under pressure through 2026. The IEA also raised its supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, highlighting widening imbalances as demand growth remains historically modest. U.S. data from the EIA added to bearish sentiment. Crude inventories rose sharply by 6.4 million barrels for the week ended November 7 and later by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended November 21. Technically, crude oil is in a short-covering phase, with open interest dropping 5.29% to 13,870. Immediate support lies at 5281, with further downside toward 5239. Resistance is placed at 5351, and a breakout above could open the path toward 5379.

Trading Ideas:

 * Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5239-5379.

* Crude oil edged higher as the success of a U.S. proposed peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war remains uncertain.

* Forecasts of a global glut grew as OPEC+ resumed capacity and producers outside the group increased output.

* Russia’s Novak said Moscow and Beijing have been discussing ways to expand Russian oil exports to China.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose 3.05% to Rs.425.7, supported by stronger demand expectations and robust LNG export activity. Record flows to U.S. LNG terminals, averaging 18.1 bcfd in November versus 16.6 bcfd in October, underpinned market sentiment. Colder-than-normal weather forecasts through December 11 boosted heating demand projections, with total U.S. gas consumption—including exports—expected to rise from 122.6 bcfd this week to 140.1 bcfd next week, according to LSEG. Adding further support, U.S. storage saw a larger-than-expected 11 bcf withdrawal, compared to expectations of just 1 bcf. This reduced inventories to 3,935 bcf, leaving stocks 0.8% below last year, though still 4.2% above the five-year average. However, gains were capped by record production and European price weakness linked to Ukraine peace discussions. U.S. output climbed to a fresh high of 109.7 bcfd in November, surpassing October’s levels and exceeding previous monthly records. Strong supply this year enabled above-normal storage builds. The EIA’s latest outlook further reinforced the supply-heavy picture, projecting dry gas production to reach 107.1 bcfd in 2025 and 107.4 bcfd in 2026, alongside record domestic demand. Technically, the market is in a fresh buying phase, with open interest jumping 49.64% to 23,971 alongside rising prices. Natural gas now finds support at Rs.413.8, with further downside possible toward Rs.401.9 if this level breaks. Resistance is located at Rs.433.9, and a breakout could drive prices toward Rs.442.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 401.9-442.1.

* Natural gas climbed on record flows to LNG export plants, forecasts for colder weather and higher demand.

* Limiting gains were record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks.

* EIA said energy firms pulled 11 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended November 21.

Copper

Copper prices rose 1.54% to Rs.1036.4, tracking LME copper, which surged to a fresh all-time high above $11,200. A weaker dollar, tightening global supply, and expectations of Chinese production cuts continued to support sentiment. China’s top smelters plan to cut output by more than 10% in 2026 to counter severe overcapacity and negative treatment/refining charges (TC/RCs), which flipped into negative territory in 2025 as tight concentrate supply forced smelters to effectively pay miners. Supply worries intensified after Chile’s October copper output fell 7% y/y to 458,405 tons, reinforcing expectations of lower global availability. Inventories also signaled tightening conditions. SHFE copper stocks dropped 11.46% over the week, while LME warehouse stocks are down 42% this year, standing at just 157,175 tons. This raised concerns that inventories outside the U.S. remain extremely tight. The LME cash-to-three-month premium climbed to $25/ton, reflecting near-term supply stress. Despite forecasts of a 350,000–400,000-ton surplus in refined copper this year, the market faces a 500,000-ton deficit in copper concentrate, extending into next year. ICSG data showed the refined copper market flipped from a 41,000-ton surplus in August to a 51,000-ton deficit in September, with consumption at 2.42 million tons outpacing output of 2.37 million tons. Technically, copper is in a fresh buying phase as open interest increased 0.97% to 8,776 alongside higher prices. Support stands at Rs.1024.5, with deeper downside toward Rs.1012.6 if breached. Resistance is at Rs.1045.8, and a breakout may push prices toward Rs.1055.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1012.6-1055.2.

* Copper gains tracking LME prices set a new all-time high above $11,200.

* Prices rose spurred by a weaker dollar, lower output in October and planned production cuts by Chinese smelters.

* China’s top copper smelters will cut production by over 10% in 2026.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 1.35% to 303.15, supported by softer U.S. economic data that reinforced expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Weak U.S. retail sales and subdued consumer confidence strengthened the outlook for monetary easing, helping base metals sentiment. On the supply front, multiple zinc mines in Central and Southwest China are scheduled for routine maintenance in December, reducing production days and potentially tightening concentrate availability, with one mine alone expected to cut nearly 700 mt of metal content. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories dropped 4.42% from last Friday, indicating near-term supply tightness. However, gains were capped by a sharp rise in LME zinc inventories, which climbed 47% in November to 49,925 tons, easing global supply concerns. Despite higher stocks, the cash-to-three-month premium near $135/ton remains elevated. China’s refined zinc exports surged 243.8% MoM in October, while domestic demand stayed weak. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, although cumulative surplus for the first nine months of 2025 rose to 120,000 tons. China’s refined zinc production fell 4% MoM in September but is expected to rebound 4% MoM in October, supported by resumed output in several provinces. Technically, fresh buying is visible with a 5.44% rise in open interest. Zinc has support at 300.9, with a break below exposing 298.6. Resistance is placed at 304.5, and a move above this could open the door toward 305.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 298.6-305.8.

* Zinc gains as soft U.S. economic data supported expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

* A zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown in December, resulting in fewer production days.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 4.42% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 0.96% to 273.05, supported by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December following dovish commentary from policymakers. Market sentiment also strengthened as concerns increased over Chinese smelters approaching government-imposed capacity ceilings, limiting further output expansion. Supply constraints were highlighted by a 6.82% drop in SHFE aluminium inventories, reflecting tightening availability in the domestic market. However, gains were partially capped by persistent worries about demand in China, the world’s largest consumer. Even so, downside remained limited as global supply risks resurfaced. The International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production at 6.294 million tonnes in October, up 0.6% year-on-year, while aluminium stocks at Japan’s major ports contracted 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes. Supply-side disruptions also supported prices. One potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and two-thirds of Century Aluminium’s Iceland output were curtailed due to equipment failures, while Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia amid declining ore grades. On the demand front, China’s October imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 10.4% YoY to 350,000 tonnes, following a strong 35.4% surge in September. In forecasts, Goldman Sachs expects LME aluminium to soften to $2,350/t in Q4 2026, whereas ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900/t. Technically, fresh buying emerged as open interest increased 4.07%. Aluminium has support at 271.3, with deeper downside toward 269.3, while resistance stands at 274.6, and a breakout may lead to 275.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 269.3-275.9.

* Aluminium gains supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.

* China's Nov Alumina output falls 4.44% mom as environmental curbs cut northern operations

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 6.82% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices climbed 1.85% to Rs.14,716, supported by concerns over crop damage and tightening supplies across key growing regions. Heavy rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Nanded has affected yields, with Nanded alone reporting 15% crop damage. Continuous rains in Erode have led to increasing disease outbreaks and storage difficulties due to humidity, further tightening supply. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and the absence of fresh arrivals for two days has added to the firmness in prices. Despite these near-term supply constraints, upside remained somewhat capped by expectations of higher acreage. Favourable rains during the sowing season and relatively lower profitability of alternative crops are likely to push turmeric acreage 15–20% higher, compared to the previous season’s 10% YoY rise to 3.30 lakh hectares. Meanwhile, markets like Duggirala are witnessing strong demand for the new crop, with better-quality fresh arrivals consistently fetching higher prices. Policy support is also aiding sentiment, with Himachal Pradesh beginning government procurement to promote natural farming. Export performance remains strong—turmeric exports during Apr–Sep 2025 surged 4.02%, with September shipments rising 7.59% YoY, though down 3.58% from August. Technically, turmeric is in short covering mode, with open interest down 11.43% to 7,750 as prices gained Rs.268. Support lies at Rs.14,372, with further weakness potentially testing Rs.14,026. Resistance is at Rs.14,982, and a breakout could lift prices toward Rs.15,246.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14026-15246.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15033.5 Rupees gained by 1.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices inched up 0.38% to Rs.22,205, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing across major producing regions. Uneven rainfall has slowed field preparations in Gujarat, leading to one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Low arrivals at Unjha, combined with strong demand for good-quality produce, have also kept prices firm. However, the upside remains restricted due to comfortable domestic supplies and subdued export interest, as overseas buyers remain cautious and price-sensitive. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved marginally but still lacks momentum due to adequate global stocks and logistical constraints in India and the Middle East. Farmers currently hold nearly 20 lakh bags of jeera, though only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a large carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat likely to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Meanwhile, adverse weather has reduced output in other producing countries such as China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan, but this has not translated into significant export gains for India. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 fell 14.51%, though September shipments showed a 2.20% YoY rise and a strong 22.93% MoM increase. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest up 1.25% to 3,156 while prices gained Rs.85. Support lies at Rs.21,990, with further downside toward Rs.21,760. Resistance is at Rs.22,370, and a breakout above this may push prices toward Rs.22,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21760-22520.

* Jeera gained as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However, upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Gujarat, is seeing one of the slowest sowing seasons in years because fields are not ready.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21127.9 Rupees dropped by -0.18 percent.

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