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Gold

Gold prices climbed 0.62% to settle at 86,686, driven by escalating global trade tensions that boosted safe-haven demand. President Donald Trump's renewed threats of tariffs on EU goods, alongside trade protection measures on copper, stirred market uncertainty. This, combined with Canada and the EU's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, fueled further demand for gold as a hedge against economic volatility. In the U.S., softer-than-expected inflation data eased investor concerns about aggressive Federal Reserve policies. With the Fed meeting next week, markets anticipate rates will remain steady, allowing room for more flexible economic projections. Globally, China continued to build its gold reserves for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 73.61 million fine troy ounces in February, reflecting sustained central bank buying. Meanwhile, Indian gold demand remains subdued, with dealers offering discounts of $10 to $21 per ounce due to record-high domestic prices and year-end caution among jewelers. The World Gold Council forecasts India’s gold consumption to ease from last year’s nine-year peak of 802.8 tons to a range between 700 and 800 tons, citing weak jewelry demand despite growing investment interest in ETFs, digital gold, and coins. On the technical front, the market saw fresh buying activity, with open interest rising by 2.13% to 14,831 contracts. Gold now finds support at 86,100, with a potential slide to 85,510 if breached. Resistance is pegged at 87,005, and a breakthrough could drive prices to test 87,320 levels.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 85510-87320.
* Gold rose as escalating global trade tensions continued to fuel safe-haven demand.
* Inflation measures declined more than expected last month, providing some relief to investors.
* Federal Reserve is set to decide on monetary policy next week, with expectations that it will keep the federal funds rate steady.

Silver

Silver prices surged by 1.37% to settle at 99,476, driven by ongoing tariff uncertainties and a cooler U.S. inflation report, which reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% in February, cooling from January's 0.5%, with core inflation easing to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2021. This softer inflation data kept market sentiment optimistic for a potential rate cut in June, supporting precious metals. Meanwhile, silver inventories at COMEX hit a record 403.2 million ounces, reflecting strong inflows. Hecla Mining, the top U.S. silver producer, reported a 13% rise in output for 2024, mining 16.2 million ounces — the second-highest in its 134-year history. However, despite rising supply, the silver market is projected to remain in a deficit for the fifth consecutive year, though the shortfall is expected to shrink by 19% to 149 million ounces in 2025. Global silver demand is forecast to stay stable at 1.2 billion ounces, with industrial demand — particularly from the green economy — growing 3% to over 700 million ounces. Physical investment demand is also set to rise by 3%, driven by Europe and North America, while jewelry demand may weaken, especially in India due to high prices. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest surging by 8.64% to 22,481 contracts. Silver now finds support at 98,640, with a drop below potentially testing 97,800 levels. Resistance is seen at 99,935, and a breakout could push prices to 100,390.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 97800-100390.
* Silver gains aided by tariff uncertainty and a cooler inflation report that keep bets for a U.S. rate cut intact.
* Data showed that U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January.
* The annual core consumer price inflation rate in US, eased to 3.1% in February 2025, from 3.3% in the prior month

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.02% to settle at ?5907, supported by a weaker US dollar and a more optimistic supply-demand outlook. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) trimmed its global oversupply projections for 2025 and 2026, citing potential declines in output from Iran and Venezuela. Additionally, OPEC maintained its forecast for strong oil demand growth in 2025, projecting an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd), driven by sustained air and road travel. Libya added to the supply side story, resuming production at the Mabruk oilfield after a decade-long halt, with plans to ramp up to 25,000 bpd. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 1.448 million barrels for the week ending March 7, lower than the anticipated 2 million build. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma — a key delivery hub — saw a notable draw of 1.228 million barrels, reversing a prior increase. Gasoline stocks fell sharply by 5.737 million barrels, marking the largest decline in five months, while distillate inventories dropped by 1.559 million barrels, exceeding forecasts. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projected US crude output hitting a record 13.61 million bpd in 2025, with consumption expected to rise to 20.5 million bpd — a steady climb from 2024 levels. Technically, the market showed strong bullish momentum, with open interest surging by 20.82% to 6,621 contracts. Crude now holds support at ?5822, with a break potentially testing ?5736, while resistance is seen at ?5956, and a move above could push prices to ?6004.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5736-6004.
* Crude oil gains supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced global oversupply forecasts.
* EIA lowered its surplus forecast this year and halved its 2026 glut projection
* OPEC said world oil demand will rise by 1.45 mbpd in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices plunged by 7.1% to settle at ?362.3, driven by rising production and forecasts of milder weather, which overshadowed a higher demand outlook and record LNG exports. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, surpassing February’s record of 105.1 bcfd. Meanwhile, demand — including exports — is expected to rise from 110.4 bcfd this week to 113.3 bcfd next week, reflecting an upward revision from earlier forecasts. Weather projections indicate a shift from warmer-than-normal conditions between March 6-15 to colder-than-normal weather from March 16-21, potentially supporting demand. US utilities withdrew 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage for the week ending February 28, 2025 — a figure below market expectations of 96 bcf. The sharpest inventory drops were seen in the South Central (-30 bcf), Midwest (-28 bcf), and East (-22 bcf) regions. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record-high natural gas production and demand in 2025, with dry gas output projected to hit 104.6 bcfd, rising further to 107.3 bcfd by 2026. LNG exports are expected to surge to 14.0 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026, from a record 12.0 bcfd in 2024. Technically, the market witnessed heavy long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 26.95% to 13,260 contracts. Support is now seen at ?351.6, with a break potentially testing ?340.9, while resistance stands at ?379, and a move above could push prices toward ?395.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 340.9-395.7.
* Natural gas dropped amid rising output and forecasts for milder weather
* However, downside seen limited amid higher demand outlook for next week and record flows to LNG export facilities.
* Canada would reduce power and gas exports to the U.S. after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico.


Copper

Copper prices climbed 1.14% to settle at ?898.5, supported by a weaker dollar and tightening inventories in the London Metal Exchange (LME) system. The market found further relief after U.S. President Donald Trump granted a temporary exemption from 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican auto imports, easing immediate supply chain concerns. LME data showed on-warrant copper stocks dropped to 136,300 tons — the lowest since mid-June — following 11,675 tons of cancellations, with canceled warrants now representing over 40% of total stocks, signaling more outflows from warehouses in the coming days. In contrast, China’s copper inventories surged, reaching 268,337 tons on February 28, more than tripling from January’s levels. Unwrought copper imports fell 7.2% year-on-year to 837,000 metric tons during the first two months of 2025, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity reducing reliance on imports. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, reported a 2.1% year-on-year output decline in January, producing 426,889 metric tons. The global refined copper market showed a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December — narrowing from November’s 124,000 metric tons shortfall — according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, the full-year data indicated a 301,000 metric ton surplus compared to a 52,000 metric ton deficit a year prior. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.07% to 5,710 contracts. Support lies at ?891.7, with a break potentially testing ?884.7, while resistance stands at ?903.8, and a move above could push prices toward ?908.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 884.7-908.9.
* Copper gains amid support from a weaker dollar and a decline in LME inventories.
* U.S. President Trump granted exemptions for automakers from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month.
* The market focus is on U.S. consumer price index data due on Wednesday.

Zinc

Zinc prices climbed 0.6% to settle at ?277.85, supported by tightening inventories and supply disruptions. London Metal Exchange (LME) on-warrant stocks fell to 94,700 tons — the lowest since November 2023 — following 42,575 tons of fresh cancellations, signaling increased metal earmarked for delivery. Meanwhile, global zinc production faced continued pressure. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), mined zinc output declined for the third straight year in 2024, driven by reduced production in key regions like China, Canada, South Africa, and Peru. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, contributing 10% of global supply, is also expected to slow production in 2025 due to ore depletion. China’s refined zinc production rose 1% month-on-month (MoM) in January but dropped nearly 8% year-on-year (YoY), falling short of expectations. February production is projected to fall by more than 8% MoM, with cumulative output for January-February 2025 estimated to decline around 6% YoY.  Global zinc market fundamentals continue to tighten. The market flipped to a deficit of 62,000 tons in 2024 from a surplus of 310,000 tons the previous year, driven by lower production. Refined metal output fell 2.6% globally, despite rising demand in Brazil, India, and South Korea offsetting declines in China, Europe, and the U.S. Technically, zinc remains in fresh buying territory, with open interest rising by 1.48% to 2,473 contracts. Support is at ?275.1, with a break potentially testing ?272.2, while resistance stands at ?280.9, and a move above could push prices toward ?283.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.2-283.8.
* Zinc rose as LME on-warrant stocks fell to 94,700 tons, their lowest since November 2023.
* The market focused on the negative consequences for global economic growth and demand from U.S. import tariffs.
* Data showed Chinese imports unexpectedly shrank over January-February, while exports lost momentum


Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.19% to settle at ?266.6, supported by tightening supply and stronger demand expectations. Despite record-high production of 44 million tons in China during 2024, output is set to slow significantly this year due to Beijing's production cap, originally set at 25 million tons in 2017 to curb oversupply and support carbon emission goals. Additionally, China's decision to end export tax rebates dampened overseas aluminium sales, encouraging local producers to focus on the domestic market, which supported foreign benchmark prices. On the demand side, China’s commitment to expanding its budget deficit and increasing special bond sales for economic growth has fueled optimism for higher aluminium consumption. JP Morgan anticipates a substantial global aluminium market deficit exceeding 600,000 metric tons by 2025, driven by sluggish supply growth, particularly reflecting China's recent production constraints. Global primary aluminium production rose 2.7% year-on-year in January to 6.252 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). In December, China's aluminium output climbed 4.2% year-on-year to 3.77 million metric tons, despite daily production dipping 1.7% from November. Technically, aluminium is in short covering mode, with open interest dropping by 3.91% to 2,996 contracts. Immediate support is at ?265.7, with a break possibly testing ?264.8, while resistance is at ?267.9, and a move higher could push prices toward ?269.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 264.8-269.2.
* Aluminium rose as lower supply from major producers magnified expectation of stronger demand.
* U.S. President announced import tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium are still scheduled to take effect on 12 March.
* Aluminium exports out of China were muted after the government ended tax rebates on overseas sales

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.04% to settle at ?52,670, supported by short covering despite a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying. Mills remain well-stocked, reducing immediate purchasing needs. Brazil’s cotton production for 2024-25 is projected to rise by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with a 4.8% increase in planting area, signaling ample global supply. Meanwhile, India’s cotton outlook presents a contrasting scenario — the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its 2024-25 crop estimate down by 2% to 295.30 lakh bales, citing a nearly 10% drop in acreage, particularly in central regions like Gujarat and Maharashtra. Government projections were similarly lowered to 294.25 lakh bales. Imports are expected to double to 32 lakh bales, reflecting efforts to offset the production shortfall, while exports are projected to plummet 40% to 17 lakh bales, driven by reduced domestic output and global competition. CAI estimates domestic consumption to hold steady at 315 lakh bales, with consumption till February reaching 142 lakh bales. Closing stocks are forecasted to drop to 23.49 lakh bales by the season’s end on September 30, 2025, down from 30.19 lakh bales last year, highlighting tightening domestic supplies. Technically, Cottoncandy remains under short covering, with open interest falling by 1.2% to 246 contracts while prices gained ?20. Support is seen at ?52,620, with a potential test at ?52,560. Resistance stands at ?52,720, and a break above could push prices to ?52,760.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52560-52760.
* Cotton steadied due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* USDA’s export sales report showed that US cotton export sales increased by 241,500 bales, up 45 per cent from the previous week
* CAI said the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat and the northern region.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25432.45 Rupees dropped by -0.25 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled lower by -1.61% at 11400, driven by the arrival of the new crop in key markets like Nizamabad and Hingoli. Despite an increase in the turmeric cultivation area to 3.30 lakh hectares — 10% higher than the previous season — production gains remain uncertain due to untimely rains, which have impacted productivity. The Nanded region, in particular, faces a 10-15% yield decline, with smaller rhizomes and crop rot reducing output potential. As a result, overall production may remain on par with last year’s 10.75 lakh tonnes or fluctuate within a narrow 3-5% range. On the export front, turmeric shipments surged by 13% to 136,921.04 tonnes during April-December 2024, compared to 121,170.97 tonnes in the same period last year. December 2024 alone recorded a sharp 46.94% jump in exports year-on-year to 15,319.82 tonnes. However, imports also rose significantly by 84.35% during the same period, reaching 19,644.14 tonnes, though December imports dipped by 44.66% from November levels. In Nizamabad, a major turmeric spot market, prices ended higher at 12241.75 Rupees, marking a 0.94% gain. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 1.22% to 12,860 contracts — indicating new short positions. Prices face immediate support at 11316, with a further downside target of 11232 if selling persists. On the upside, resistance is likely at 11534, and a break above this could push prices toward 11668. The market remains balanced between weaker crop yields and strong export momentum.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11232-11668.
* Turmeric dropped as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* However downside seen limited as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2024, jump by 13 percent at 136,921.04 tonnes as compared to 121,170.97 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2023.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12241.75 Rupees gained by 0.94 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell by -1.02% to settle at 20780, driven by weak demand and sufficient stock availability. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season’s end, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production is expected to remain steady compared to last year, supported by favorable crop conditions and improved sowing. However, downside pressure remains limited due to delayed sowing in key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan, where unfavorable weather pushed planting back by about a month. India's cumin seed production increased significantly to 8.6 lakh tonnes across 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, up from 5.77 lakh tonnes over 9.37 lakh hectares the previous year, according to Spices Board data. Notably, Indian cumin remains the cheapest globally, priced at $3,050 per tonne — $200 to $250 lower than Chinese cumin — making India the preferred supplier. This price advantage, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving demand from Gujarat’s exporters, supports a robust export outlook. Jeera exports surged by 70.72% to 165,084.40 tonnes between April and December 2024, compared to 96,701.43 tonnes in the same period of 2023. December exports alone saw a 47.77% year-on-year jump to 18,078.19 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, reflected in a 5.98% rise in open interest to 2,763 contracts. Jeera has immediate support at 20580, with further downside possible toward 20370. Resistance is seen at 21140, and a breakout above could push prices to test 21490.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20370-21490.
* Jeera dropped as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* However downside seen limited as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2024, rose by 70.72 percent at 165,084.40 tonnes as compared to 96,701.43 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2023
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21121.05 Rupees dropped by -0.56 percent.

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