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Gold

Gold prices ended 0.2% higher at 1,01,468 on MCX after briefly hitting a fresh all-time high above 1,02,000, supported by escalating trade tensions and growing expectations of US interest rate cuts. Sentiment was buoyed after President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs of 10–50% took effect on dozens of countries, including a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors. Weak US labor data and dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reinforced expectations, with CME FedWatch showing a 91–93% chance of a September rate cut. Jobless claims also hit multi-year highs. Citi raised its 3-month gold forecast to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating US growth, tariff-driven inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks from the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Physical demand in Asia improved slightly, with Indian dealer discounts narrowing to $7/oz and mixed premiums in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan. WGC data showed Q2 2025 global gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,248.8 tons, driven by a 78% jump in investment demand and a 21% rise in gold bar buying, despite a 14% fall in jewellery demand and a 21% drop in central bank purchases. Fresh buying interest was seen as open interest rose 6.03% to 15,765 contracts while prices gained 206. Support is placed at 1,00,905, with a break below exposing 1,00,340. Resistance is at 1,02,095, and a move above could trigger further gains toward 1,02,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 100340-102720.

* Gold climbed above 1,02,000 on MCX to an all-time high supported by escalating trade tensions.

* President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% took effect, targeting dozens of countries.

* Fed’s Kashkari signaled the need for rate cuts amid a slowing US economy.

Silver

Silver prices gained 0.56% to settle at 1,14,286 on MCX, supported by intensifying expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts amid signs of a weakening labor market and heightened geopolitical tensions. US initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 226,000 in the last week of July, while continuing claims surged to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. Political developments added to uncertainty, with President Donald Trump doubling tariffs on Indian goods to 50% over Russian oil imports and reports suggesting a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Retail silver investment trends varied globally in 2025. Europe continued its recovery from late 2024 lows, while India posted a 7% year-on-year increase in H1 demand, reflecting strong price expectations. Global silver ETP inflows reached 95 Moz in the first half, pushing total holdings to 1.13 Boz, just 7% below the 2021 peak. The silver market is set for its fifth consecutive deficit in 2025, with total demand expected at 1.20 Boz. Industrial fabrication, the key driver, is projected to grow 3% to a record 700 Moz, boosted by structural gains from green economy applications. The market witnessed short covering as open interest dropped 6.76% to 16,010 contracts while prices rose 631. Support lies at 1,13,655, with a break below exposing 1,13,025. Resistance is at 1,15,165, and a move above could open the way to 1,16,045.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 113025-116045.

* Silver rose as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts intensified amid signs of a softening US labor market.

* Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 7,000 from the previous week to 226,000 in the last week of July.

* Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Indian goods to 50% in response to continued imports of Russian oil.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices fell sharply by 1.91% to settle at 5,604 on MCX, pressured by hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Russia–Ukraine conflict after the Kremlin confirmed an upcoming meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. In China, July crude imports declined 5.4% from June but remained 11.5% higher year-on-year, with analysts expecting refining activity to stay firm. Saudi Arabia raised September crude prices for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, citing tight supply and strong demand, while global macroeconomic concerns capped gains after Trump imposed a fresh 25% tariff on Indian goods over Russian oil imports, effective August 28. On the supply front, OPEC+ announced a 547,000 bpd output hike for September, marking the latest in a series of accelerated production increases aimed at regaining market share. This comes alongside a full reversal of prior output cuts and additional supply from the UAE, bringing the total increase to about 2.5 million bpd, or 2.4% of global demand. U.S. EIA data showed crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels last week to 423.7 million, against expectations for a smaller draw. Gasoline stocks dropped by 1.3 million barrels, distillates by 565,000 barrels, while refinery runs and utilization rates both rose. Fresh selling pressure emerged as open interest surged 33.48% to 12,799 contracts alongside a 109 price drop. Support lies at 5,554, with a break below potentially targeting 5,504. Resistance is at 5,689, and a move above this could pave the way for gains toward 5,774.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5504-5774.

* Crude oil fell as Putin-Trump talks raised hopes of diplomacy.

* China’s July crude imports dropped 5.4% from June levels.

* OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped 0.67% to settle at 268.7 on MCX as weaker weather-driven demand overshadowed support from a smaller-than-expected U.S. inventory build. LSEG data showed average output in the Lower 48 states eased slightly to 107.8 bcfd in August, down from July’s record 107.9 bcfd. Demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 105.8 bcfd this week to 109.6 bcfd next week, though this is lower than earlier forecasts. LNG export flows averaged 16.1 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July, boosted by Freeport LNG’s recovery from outages and near-record intake at Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant. EIA storage data revealed a 7 bcf injection for the week ending August 1, well below expectations for a 15 bcf build, bringing total inventories to 3.130 tcf. Stocks are 4.2% lower than a year ago but 5.9% above the five-year average. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected U.S. dry gas production to reach 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and 106.4 bcfd in 2026, both record highs, while domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 91.3 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026. LNG exports are expected to average 14.6 bcfd in 2025, climbing to 16.0 bcfd in 2026, reflecting continued expansion in export capacity. The market witnessed fresh selling as open interest rose 1.35% to 34,195 contracts, with prices dropping 1.8. Support lies at 264.6, with a break below opening the way to 260.6. Resistance is at 274.1, and a move above this level could target 279.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.6-279.6.

* Natural gas dropped as loss of weather-driven demand outweighs the boost from a below-estimate inventory build.

* Extreme heat last week boosted gas demand for air conditioning

* US gas output at near-record levels so far in August

Copper

Copper prices slipped 0.3% to settle at 880.75 on MCX, weighed by profit booking amid cautious optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal. July trade data from China surprised to the upside, with exports rising 7.2% YoY and imports up 4.1%, defying forecasts of a decline. Copper imports increased 3.4% from June, while copper concentrate imports surged 9% to 2.56 million tonnes, as the country’s smelting sector maintained record production levels. Markets remain focused on the August 12 tariff deadline, with U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at possible additional duties on China. Inventory trends showed mixed signals. LME copper stocks continued to rebound to near two-year highs, while SHFE inventories fell for a seventh consecutive month to 72,543 tonnes. COMEX inventories rose to 261,180 tonnes, the highest since February 2004. The ICSG reported a 97,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, reversing an 80,000-tonne deficit in April. On the supply front, Codelco’s copper output rose 9% in H1 2025, while Antofagasta posted an 11% increase to 314,900 tonnes, driven by stronger concentrator production. Goldman Sachs projects LME copper prices to ease to $9,550/t in August from $10,050/t, citing modest short-term downside risk but maintaining a long-term bullish arbitrage view. Fresh selling emerged as open interest rose 1.37% to 7,228 contracts, with prices down 2.65. Support lies at 878.2, and a break below could target 875.6. Resistance is at 885.2, with a move above potentially testing 889.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 875.6-889.6.

* Copper dropped on profit booking amid cautious optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal.

* Copper imports rose 3.4% from a month earlier while copper concentrate imports climbed 9%.

* The refined copper market was in a 272,000 tons surplus in the first five months of 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged up 0.11% to settle at 268.5 on MCX, supported by tightening supply conditions as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production amid capacity outpacing demand. A softer U.S. dollar, following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data that boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, also lent support. However, upside remained capped by demand concerns, with China’s manufacturing activity contracting in July and export orders falling for a fourth consecutive month. On the supply side, zinc inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.9% from last week. Production disruptions were reported in South China due to heavy rains, while Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine in Alaska recorded a 20% annual drop in mined output in Q1. Additionally, Australia’s Nyrstar announced a 25% cut in annual output, citing uncompetitive treatment charges caused by ore shortages. China’s plans for a CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric power project are expected to boost steel and zinc demand over the next decade due to high galvanization use in infrastructure. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported the global zinc market shifted to a 44,100-tonne deficit in May from a 17,300-tonne surplus in April. For January–May 2025, the market still showed an 88,000-tonne surplus, down sharply from 214,000 tonnes last year. The market saw short covering as open interest fell 2.13% to 3,171 contracts, with prices rising 0.3. Support is at 267.1, with a break below targeting 265.7. Resistance is at 270.2, and a move above could test 271.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.7-271.9.

* Zinc gains as zinc supply is tightening as Chinese smelters face pressure to cut production due to capacity outpacing demand.

* However upside seen limited as demand concerns lingered as China's manufacturing activity contracted in July.

* However, production at some smelters in South China was affected by heavy rain.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell 0.76% to settle at 253.05 on MCX as markets adjusted expectations for fiscal support from the Chinese government, which, while maintaining loose monetary and fiscal conditions, refrained from announcing direct consumer-targeted stimulus. This tempered industrial expansion forecasts, though downside remained limited on the outlook for tighter supply and improved demand from China. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories rose 1.5% from last Friday, while supply constraints persisted in Europe due to sanctions on Russia. Sentiment was supported by Beijing’s pledge to stabilise industrial growth and the announcement of a CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project, expected to boost infrastructure-related metal demand. China’s aluminium production in June dropped 3.23% MoM, though July operating capacity is expected to remain high. Trade data showed China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in July, up from 489,000 tonnes in June. For June, production stood at 3.81 million tonnes, up 3.4% YoY, bringing H1 output to 22.38 million tonnes, 3.3% higher than last year. In Japan, Q3 aluminium premiums fell 41% to $108/tonne amid weak demand and ample supply, with port stocks down 4.3% MoM to 316,700 tonnes. The market saw long liquidation as open interest fell 3.97% to 4,209 contracts while prices dropped 1.95. Support is at 251.7, with a break below potentially testing 250.3. Resistance is at 255.3, and a move above this level could open the way to 257.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 250.3-257.5.

* Aluminium dropped as markets recalibrated their expectations of fiscal support from the Chinese government.

* However downside seen limited amid the outlook of lower supply and improved demand from China.

* China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, in July, up from June's 489,000 tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures declined by 1.62% to settle at 13,084 amid expectations of increased acreage following favorable rainfall in key growing regions. Arrivals rose marginally to 13,660 quintals compared to 11,940 quintals in the previous session, indicating improved market availability. Dry weather has supported timely sowing, and initial estimates suggest a 15–20% increase in acreage this season, as turmeric remains more profitable than alternative crops. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric acreage is reported at 3.30 lakh hectares—10% higher than last year.  In the previous 2023–24 season, production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes. For the current season, yields are expected to be 10–15% lower, especially in regions like Nanded, where issues such as smaller rhizomes and crop rot have emerged. At the Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are witnessing strong demand, with new crop fetching higher prices due to superior quality. Around 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, and harvesting continues. Turmeric exports rose 8.37% YoY during April–May 2025 to 34,162.28 tonnes. May exports grew 10.28% YoY and jumped 28.41% compared to April 2025, reflecting robust overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with a steep 23.89% drop in open interest to 8,665. Support lies at 12,844, with a break below likely to test 12,606. Resistance is at 13,330, above which prices may target 13,578.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12606-13578.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13839.75 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures ended marginally higher by 0.03% at 18,915, reflecting subdued market activity amid weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Traders attributed the flat momentum to the absence of bulk buying interest and inactivity from overseas buyers. Comfortable supply conditions and adequate carryover stocks are also weighing on prices. Farmers are still holding approximately 20 lakh bags, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season’s end, leaving a carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production estimates for the current season are pegged at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than the previous year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is expected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Though global production is facing setbacks—such as reduced output in China (70–80 thousand tonnes from earlier 1 lakh tonne estimates) and lower crop sizes in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan—Indian export demand has not gained momentum, limiting bullish sentiment. Jeera exports during April–May 2025 declined sharply by 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes from 58,860.98 tonnes a year earlier. However, month-on-month data showed improvement, with May 2025 exports rising 17.68% over April and 11.26% YoY. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as open interest fell by 5.47% to 3,885 while prices inched up 5. Immediate support lies at 18,860, with further downside possible to 18,800. Resistance is seen at 18,990, and a move above could push prices toward 19,060.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18800-19060.

* Jeera prices settled flat due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19377.2 Rupees dropped by -0.56 percent.

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