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Bullion –

Spot gold settled modestly higher at $4,305 on Monday, trimming earlier gains as optimism emerged due to improved geopolitical sentiment encouraged some profit-taking in gold, even as the U.S. dollar remained broadly soft. Spot silver outperformed, surging over 3.5% to settled above $64, amid strong investor interest & momentum buying. Meanwhile, Fed officials’ comments were mixed as NY Fed President Williams struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing policy’s move toward neutral, while Governor Miran reiterated a dovish stance, advocating faster rate cuts. Boston Fed President Collins sounded broadly neutral. Markets currently price a 78% probability of a rate cut in Jan 2026. Today, gold slipped below $4,290 as market focus now shifts to delayed U.S. NFP, retail sales, and Dec S&P flash PMIs for clearer policy signals. Gold remains supported by soft dollar and rate-cut expectations, though consolidation expected ahead of key U.S. macro data.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil prices fell to $56.4/bbl, lowest level since February 2021, driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese data, ongoing concerns about global oversupply, and rising optimism around a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated he could reconsider Ukraine’s NATO ambitions following discussions with U.S. officials. Earlier in the session, prices attempted a rebound, climbing toward $57.8/bbl, supported by continued geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and Venezuela. Traders remained wary amid concerns that the US could take further action against vessels transporting Venezuelan oil, especially after a tanker was seized last week, contributing to a sharp drop in Venezuela’s oil exports. Today, oil prices held declines amid prospects of a peace deal as Trump said a deal to end the war is closer than ever following talks with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and European leaders.

Natural Gas –

Nymex gas slipped below $4/mmBtu as warmer weather projections for late December hurt heating demand prospects, offsetting potential support from triple-digit stock draw.

Base metals –

LME metals mostly ended lower as concerns over a potential AI bubble weighed on risk sentiment. Copper was the exception, supported by structural supply tightness from mine disruptions and the threat of U.S. import tariffs, alongside steady demand from green energy and power infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, weak Chinese data highlighted a deepening slowdown. Retail sales rose 1.3% year on year, industrial production increased 4.8% in November, while fixed-asset investment fell 2.6% and real estate investment slumped 15.9%, all undershooting expectations and reinforcing expectations for further stimulus next year. Today, metals edged lower amid limited risk appetite ahead of key US data releases and central bank decisions.

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