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Gold

Gold rallied 1.5% to settle at 162,104, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has begun imposing a temporary 10% global import tariff, with the rate set to rise to 15% for certain countries, adding to trade-related concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims ticked slightly higher, though the unemployment rate remained steady in February. Demand signals from China were notably strong. Net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 68.7% month-on-month in January to 20.585 tons. Physical gold traded at premiums of $12–$13 per ounce in China, reflecting solid post-holiday buying interest. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to a 15th straight month. In contrast, Indian dealers offered steep discounts of up to $65 per ounce as higher prices dampened demand. China’s broader gold data showed mixed trends. Total consumption fell 3.57% in 2025, with jewelry demand down sharply, while bar and coin investment surged 35.1%. ETF holdings and central bank reserves also rose significantly. Technically, gold is under fresh buying interest, with open interest up 7.11% to 8,316 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 160,420, with resistance at 163,195. A breakout above this level could push prices toward 164,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158730-164280.

* Gold prices rose as uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies and U.S.-Iran tensions underpinned the metal's safe-haven appeal.

* The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased slightly last week.

* China's central bank extended its gold buying spree for a 15th month in January.

Silver

Silver surged 5.9% to settle at 274,998, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks. Markets reacted to policy confusion in Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down broad reciprocal tariffs, only for the administration to introduce a new 10% global tariff that could rise to 15% for some countries. The shifting trade backdrop has raised concerns about the stability of existing trade agreements. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data—up 0.5% month-on-month, with core prices rising 0.8%—highlighted persistent inflation pressures. While some Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more hawkish tone, money markets are still pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in July. Fundamentals in the physical market remain tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes, their lowest level since 2015, marking a dramatic drop from the 2021 peak. London vault holdings also edged lower to 27,729 tonnes by the end of January. Technically, the rally was fueled by short covering, with open interest plunging 20.86% to 2,785 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 267,400, while resistance stands at 279,280. A decisive move above this level could open the door toward 283,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 259810-283570.

* Silver climbed supported by US tariff uncertainties and elevated geopolitical risks.

* Investors weighed policy uncertainty in Washington after the US Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs.

* The US and Iran agreed to continue nuclear negotiations next week, following progress during Thursday’s talks in Geneva.

Crude oil

Crude oil rose 0.64% to settle at 6,092, as traders kept a close watch on geopolitical developments surrounding U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. Indirect negotiations in Geneva followed a U.S. military buildup in the region, keeping supply disruption fears alive. Markets are factoring in a geopolitical risk premium of $8–$10 per barrel, largely tied to concerns over potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply. Attention is now shifting to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is widely expected to consider increasing output by 137,000 barrels per day in April, ending a three-month pause. The move could help major producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE regain market share, especially as Russia and Iran continue to face sanctions. Saudi Arabia has also prepared contingency plans to boost output if regional tensions escalate. On the data front, U.S. crude inventories surged by nearly 16 million barrels last week, the largest build in three years, significantly exceeding expectations. Despite this, the International Energy Agency raised its global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd for the year. Technically, crude is under fresh buying interest, with open interest up 3.06% to 15,430. Support is seen at 5,959, while resistance stands at 6,206. A break above this could target 6,321.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5827-6321.

* Crude oil gains as traders remained on alert for potential supply disruptions after US and Iran extended talks.

* Geopolitical risk premiums of $8 to $10 a barrel have built in oil prices on fears that a conflict will disrupt Middle East supply.

* Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a U.S. strike on Iran disrupts oil flows from the Middle East.

Natural gas

Natural gas gained 2.02% to settle at 262.3, supported by near-record flows to LNG export terminals and slightly stronger demand expectations for the week ahead. LNG feedgas flows averaged 18.7 bcfd in February so far, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and on track to surpass December’s record. That strength in exports helped offset forecasts for milder weather, with temperatures expected to remain mostly above normal through March 12. Production remains robust. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 108.7 bcfd in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, though still below December’s all-time high of 109.7 bcfd. Demand, including exports, is projected to ease from 138.5 bcfd this week to 131.2 bcfd next week. Storage data was moderately supportive. Utilities withdrew 52 bcf for the week ended February 20, slightly above expectations but well below the 252 bcf draw seen a year earlier. Total inventories now stand at 2.018 tcf, 7.5% higher than last year and just 0.3% below the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects production to hit fresh records in 2026 and 2027, while demand holds broadly steady. Technically, the move higher was driven by short covering, with open interest down 10.23% to 23,763. Support is seen at 258.4, while resistance stands at 265.3. A break above could target 268.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.5-268.3.

* Natural gas climbed on near-record flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for more demand next week.

* Near-record LNG export flows boost U.S. natural gas futures

* US energy firms withdrew 52 bcf of natural gas from storage, slightly above expectations for a 36 bcf draw

Copper

Copper rose 1.25% to settle at 1,222.35, as improving demand sentiment outweighed concerns about rising exchange inventories. Optimism around future consumption helped lift prices, even as stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses surged to 391,529 tons—the highest level since March 2016—marking the 11th straight weekly increase following the Lunar New Year holidays. The Yangshan premium climbed to $50 per ton from $33 before the break, signaling firmer import appetite in China. Inventory builds were not limited to China. LME stocks have climbed to 253,600 tons, while Comex inventories also continued trending higher. Despite the near-term surplus, longer-term projections remain constructive. UBS expects copper to reach $15,000 per ton within 13 months, citing a widening global deficit. Goldman Sachs also sees upside risk to its 2026 forecast if strategic stockpiling reduces commercial inventories. On the supply side, output disruptions persist. Production declined at Chile’s Collahuasi and Escondida mines, and Peru reported an 11.2% year-on-year drop in November output. Meanwhile, China’s refined copper production remains strong, rising 9.1% in December. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.92% to 16,723 contracts. Support is seen at 1,211.8, while resistance stands at 1,230.5. A break above could target 1,238.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1201.2-1238.6.

* Copper prices rose as demand optimism outweighed concerns over stocks piling up in warehouses.

* Copper output in Chile, fell 3% year-on-year in January to 413,712 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.

* Copper stocks sitting in SHFE-registered warehouses soared to a near 10-year high in stock building

Zinc

Zinc edged lower by 0.12% to settle at 326.55, pressured by a sharp 44.8% jump in inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses and a firmer U.S. dollar, which cooled optimism around a recovery in Chinese demand. Still, the downside appeared limited as traders anticipated restocking activity after markets reopened following the holiday break. Underlying supply dynamics continue to offer mixed signals. While Goldman Sachs expects a small global surplus this year due to rising mine output and concentrate destocking, broader fundamentals remain relatively tight. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a 33,000-ton global deficit in 2025, narrower than the previous year. Refined demand rose 1.9% to 13.86 million tons, while mine production increased 5.4%, supported by higher output in several countries and the restart of Ireland’s Tara mine, along with ramp-ups at Kipushi in the DRC. At the same time, concerns linger over soft Chinese economic data, though the central bank has pledged stronger financial support to stimulate domestic demand. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.02% to 3,974 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 325.4, with a break below opening the door to 324.3. Resistance stands at 328.5, and a move above that could push prices toward 330.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 324.3-330.5.

* Zinc process dropped as zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 44.8%.

* Pressure also seen as a firmer dollar tempered optimism about a revival in demand from China.

* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year, driven by growing mine supply.

Aluminium

Aluminium inched up 0.22% to settle at 312.8, supported by optimism around potential easing of U.S. trade tensions after the Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs. Improved sentiment around tariffs helped offset concerns about rising inventories and steady global output. On the supply side, Century Aluminum plans to restart its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland by the end of April, earlier than expected. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production reached 6.317 million tons in January, slightly higher than a year ago, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed a modest 57,000-ton surplus in December, reflecting broadly balanced fundamentals. In China, output remains strong. December production hit a record 3.87 million tons, with full-year output exceeding 45 million tons despite the official capacity cap. However, production growth may slow as Beijing tightens controls on capacity expansion. At the same time, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose nearly 20%, signaling short-term supply pressure. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price outlook, citing low global inventories and firm demand growth, even as Japan port stocks edged higher. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying interest, with open interest up 0.51% to 4,529 contracts. Support is seen at 312 and 311, while resistance stands at 314. A break above could open the way toward 315.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 311-315.

* Aluminium gained as optimism over potentially lower US tariffs supported the rally.

* Century Aluminum expects to resume operations at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland by the end of April.

* South32, confirmed its Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance next month.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures slipped 0.72% to settle at 15,484, pressured by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next 10–15 days. Higher acreage, supported by favourable rains during sowing, has also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried production is seen at 90 lakh bags compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, lower carry-forward stocks and sub-normal arrivals are limiting the downside. Weather disruptions, including unseasonal heavy rains in August–September, affected nearly 15% of the crop in parts of Marathwada, leading to 15–20% yield losses in pockets. Even so, Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags from 47.5 lakh bags last year. Other states together may produce around 40 lakh bags, up from 35 lakh bags. Export demand remains firm, with shipments during April–December 2025 rising 3.99% to 1,42,386 tonnes, while imports fell sharply by 41.54%. In Nizamabad, prices edged up 0.02% to 15,836.15. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.3% at 18,100 lots. Immediate support is seen at 15,212, with a break possibly testing 14,942. Resistance stands at 15,750, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 16,018.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14942-16018.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

# In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15836.15 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures edged higher by 0.48% to settle at 22,160, supported by tighter sowing and emerging supply concerns. In Gujarat, sowing is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares versus 4.76 lakh hectares last season. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is seen at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags, though rising aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan are adding uncertainty. Despite the supportive production outlook, upside remains capped as new crop arrivals have begun in select mandis and are expected to gain momentum from March. Comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand are also weighing on sentiment. During April–December 2025, exports fell 12.08% to 1,45,137 tonnes, with December shipments down both year-on-year and month-on-month. At Unjha, prices slipped 0.26% to 21,957.4. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, though only 3–4 lakh bags may trade before season-end, leaving sizable carry-forward stocks. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.89% to 4,353 lots while prices rose 105. Immediate support is seen at 21,930, with a break potentially testing 21,700. Resistance stands at 22,320, and a move above this could extend gains toward 22,480.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21700-22480.

* Jeera gained as sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

* Rising risks of Aphid infestation have been reported across key growing regions in Rajasthan.

# In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21957.4 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

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