Turmeric trading range for the day is 14928-15952 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold surged 2.87% to settle at 155,761, driven largely by dip buying as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Comments from Michael Barr, who signaled rates should stay on hold until inflation moves convincingly toward 2%, contrasted with remarks from Austan Goolsbee suggesting rate cuts remain possible later this year if disinflation continues. Markets are now focused on upcoming FOMC minutes, GDP, and PCE data for clearer direction. Safe-haven demand was tempered somewhat by easing geopolitical tensions, including reported progress in US–Iran talks and ongoing Russia–Ukraine negotiations. In physical markets, gold traded at discounts in India for the first time in nearly a month, with dealers offering up to $12 per ounce below official prices as volatility curbed retail buying. In contrast, demand in China remained firm ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. According to the China Gold Association, China’s total gold output rose 3.35% in 2025, while consumption fell 3.57%, reflecting weaker jewelry demand but strong investment buying. ETF holdings and central bank reserves also increased notably. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 2.57%. Support is seen at 153,375 and 150,995, while resistance stands at 157,260; a move above this level could target 158,765.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 150995-158765.
* Gold rose due to dip buying as markets reassessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.
* Fed’s Barr said rates should remain on hold “for some time” until inflation shows progress toward the 2% target.
* India's Jan gold imports at $ 12.07 Bln - trade ministry
Silver
Silver rallied sharply by 6.77% to close at 244,268, as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. Policy signals remained mixed. Michael Barr reiterated that rates should stay unchanged until inflation clearly moves toward the 2% target, while Austan Goolsbee indicated that rate cuts could still be on the table later this year if price pressures continue to ease. Markets are also awaiting the U.S. PCE inflation data, with rate cut expectations currently centered around June. Some safe-haven demand was tempered by easing US–Iran tensions and holiday-thinned trading across Asia due to the Lunar New Year. U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, though core orders excluding transportation rose 0.9%, offering a mixed economic signal. On the physical side, supply tightness remains a key theme. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to multi-year lows, down more than 88% from their 2021 peak. Meanwhile, London vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower month-on-month. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.15%. Support is seen at 235,790 and 227,315, while resistance stands at 249,070; a break above this level could push prices toward 253,875.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 227315-253875.
* Silver prices rose as investors awaited the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting due.
* Fed’s Goolsbee suggested additional cuts may be possible later this year if that trend continues.
* ANZ expects silver to underperform gold, resulting in gold-silver ratio reverting to 70x
Crude oil
Crude oil surged 4.43% to settle at 5,913, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions after Ukraine–Russia peace talks in Geneva collapsed within hours. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy described the discussions as difficult, while Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky indicated further rounds may follow. Additional pressure came from planned Iranian and Russian naval drills in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean, heightening supply risk concerns. At the same time, markets weighed reports that OPEC+ may resume output increases from April. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 global demand growth forecast slightly higher to 930,000 bpd, though it still sees a surplus ahead. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.5 million-barrel jump in crude inventories, well above expectations, while gasoline stocks rose and distillates fell. Production is projected to ease slightly after hitting a record in 2025. Meanwhile, China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are set to hit a fresh high in February, reflecting shifting trade flows. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 7.04%. Support is seen at 5,744 and 5,576, while resistance stands at 6,001; a move above this level could push prices toward 6,090.
Trading Ideas
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5576-6090.
* Crude oil gains as geopolitical tensions heightened following the abrupt end of Ukraine Russia peace talks in Geneva.
* Oil production at Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oil field is gradually increasing after an outage in January.
* Reports suggesting that OPEC+ is considering resuming output hikes in April.
Natural gas
Natural gas slipped 2.4% to settle at 268.9, pressured by near-record production and forecasts for milder weather through early March. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across much of the U.S., limiting heating demand and allowing utilities to keep more gas in storage than is typical for this time of year. Output in the Lower 48 averaged around 108.5 bcfd in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and close to December’s record, with daily production recently touching nearly 111 bcfd. LNG demand offered some support, with flows to major export terminals rising to 18.6 bcfd in February, above January levels and on track to surpass December’s record. However, that strength was not enough to counterbalance abundant supply and softer weather-driven demand expectations. Storage data showed a 249 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 6, slightly below expectations but well above both last year’s draw and the five-year average. Total inventories now stand at 2.214 tcf, down 4.2% year-on-year and 5.5% below the seasonal norm. According to the Energy Information Administration, production is projected to reach record highs in 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.88%. Support is seen at 264.3 and 259.8, while resistance stands at 274.9; a move above that could target 281.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.8-281.
* Natural gas fell as near-record production and milder weather forecasts eased supply concerns.
* Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across much of the country through early March, keeping heating demand subdued.
* Output in the Lower 48 states averaged about 108.5 bcfd in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and close to December’s monthly record.
Copper
Copper rebounded 2.65% to close at 1,181.35, driven largely by short covering as investors stepped in to buy after recent weakness in thin trading conditions. However, gains were capped by rising exchange inventories. Stocks in London Metal Exchange-approved warehouses climbed for a 12th straight session to 224,625 tonnes, the highest level in nearly 11 months, while Shanghai inventories also rose 9.5%, reinforcing near-term oversupply concerns. The LME cash contract trading at a $100 discount to the three-month contract further signaled comfortable prompt availability. Fundamentally, the picture remains mixed. The International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-ton refined surplus in November, with the market showing a cumulative surplus of 206,000 tonnes for the first eleven months of the year. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought copper imports fell 6.4% in 2025, though refined output rose strongly, up 9.8% year-on-year in the first eleven months. Supply disruptions in Chile and Peru, along with China’s plans to expand strategic reserves, are offering medium-term support. Chile’s Cochilco has raised its price forecast, citing solid demand and geopolitical risks. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 2.39%. Support is seen at 1,162.6 and 1,143.8, while resistance stands at 1,192.4; a break above could target 1,203.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1143.8-1203.4.
* Copper prices gained on short covering as investors stepped in to buy the dip amid thin trade volumes.
* Copper stocks in LME-approved warehouses increased for a 12th straight day to 224,625 tons, the highest in 11 months.
* The cash LME copper contract was trading at a $100 a ton discount to the three-month forward contract.
Zinc
Zinc rose 1.9% to settle at 325.15, supported by ongoing concerns over tight near-term supply. Temporary mine suspensions in parts of China ahead of the Lunar New Year are expected to trim concentrate availability, adding to the supportive tone. At the same time, refined output trends remain mixed. While mined production increased last year, refined zinc output fell around 2% due to smelter curbs in Kazakhstan and Japan, including the closure of the Annaka plant. However, gains were capped by a firmer dollar, rising inventories, and softer demand. Stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 23.1% last week, and demand has eased after downstream buyers completed pre-holiday restocking. China’s refined zinc production hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, lifting full-year output to 7.41 million tonnes. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global market posted a 7,700-ton deficit in November, though it remains in surplus for the first eleven months of 2025. Meanwhile, mine restarts such as Boliden’s Tara and ramp-ups at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi are improving supply prospects. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 10.73%. Support is seen at 321.4 and 317.5, while resistance stands at 327.4; a move above that could target 329.5
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 317.5-329.5.
* Zinc prices gained amid persistent concerns of tight supply.
* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year.
* A zinc mine in Southwest China suspended production in early February and is expected to resume production in early March
Aluminium
Aluminium gained 1.46% to close at 308.25, supported by supply concerns after South32 confirmed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance next month due to drought-driven power shortages and unresolved tariff issues with Eskom. The potential disruption tightened the near-term supply outlook and lent support to prices. However, gains were capped by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium, which could ease trade tensions. Meanwhile, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 21.3%, pointing to comfortable domestic availability in the short term. Fundamentally, the broader tone remains constructive. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price forecast to $3,150 per tonne, citing low global inventories and power constraints in Indonesia. China’s refined aluminium output hit a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, taking full-year production above 45 million tonnes, according to official data. Imports also rose 7.1% year-on-year in December, reflecting steady demand. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary output edged up 0.5% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 11.37%. Support is seen at 305.7 and 303, while resistance stands at 309.9; a move above this level could test 311.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 303-311.4.
* Aluminium gains as South32, confirmed its Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance next month.
* Support also seen as tightening global supply coincided with growing demand.
* However, upside seen limited after a report that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to scale back some tariffs on aluminum goods
Turmeric
Turmeric prices climbed 2.37% to settle at 15,448, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Farmers and stockists have already reduced inventories, tightening near-term supply and lending strength to the market ahead of fresh crop arrivals. That said, upside may be capped as arrivals in Erode are expected to pick up over the next couple of weeks. On the production front, acreage for the 2025–26 season is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried production is seen at 90 lakh bags, compared to 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the net increase in availability. Weather disruptions, including heavy rains in parts of Maharashtra, trimmed yields in some pockets, though higher acreage should still lift the state’s output. Quality concerns remain in affected areas. Export demand continues to lend support. Shipments during April–November 2025 rose 4.88% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 44.52%. In Nizamabad, prices eased marginally by 0.53%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 0.98%. Support is seen at 15,188 and 14,928, while resistance stands at 15,700; a breakout could push prices toward 15,952
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14928-15952.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* However upside seen limited as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2025, jump by 4.88 percent at 127530.20 tonnes as compared to 121601.21 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2024.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15473.45 Rupees dropped by -0.53 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices rose 2.46% to settle at 22,895, supported by concerns over lower sowing and tightening supplies. In Gujarat, acreage is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years as many fields were not ready. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Rising aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan have added to supply worries. At the Unjha market, arrivals remain low, and premium-quality cumin is fetching higher prices. However, fresh crop arrivals have begun in some mandis, with supplies expected to improve from March onward, which may cap further upside. Comfortable old stocks and subdued export demand are also limiting gains, despite some improvement in buying from Gulf countries and China. Export data shows shipments during April–November 2025 fell 10.3% year-on-year, although November exports were higher compared to last year. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with a significant carry-forward expected. Globally, lower output projections in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan could tighten overall supply, but weak overseas demand continues to weigh on sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.65%. Support is seen at 22,550 and 22,210, while resistance stands at 23,180; a breakout could target 23,470.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22210-23470.
* Jeera prices gains as sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares
* National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.
* Rising risks of Aphid infestation have been reported across key growing regions in Rajasthan.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22839.25 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.
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