Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure on easing geopolitical risk - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to move back towards $3340 as long as it trades under $3410 on lack of clarity on US tariffs. In a recent statement, the US officials said, they will issue an executive order to clarify that imports of gold bars should not face tariffs. Additionally, easing geopolitical tension ahead of this week’s Trump-Putin meet would also ease safe haven demand. Meanwhile, increasing investment demand and buying from central banks would provide support to prices. Additionally, stagflation concerns in US would also limit the downside in the yellow metal.
* On the data front, a strong call base at 3450 might act as immediate hurdle. MCX Gold October is expected to dip towards RS.100,600, as long as it trades under RS.102,250 level.
* MCX Silver Sep is expected to move lower towards RS.114,000. On the upside major hurdle exist at RS.115,800 level. Only below RS.114,000, it may fall towards RS.112,800.
Base Metal Outlook
Copper prices are expected to face hurdle on easing supply concerns. Codelco has received approval to restart some underground activities at EI Teniete, but a full return is not expected until the comprehensive review process is completed. Additionally, tariff concerns and rising inventory levels in LME would also weigh on the metal prices. Meanwhile, expectation of demand improvement from China and rise in new loans could provide support to prices.
MCX Copper August is expected to rise towards RS.896, as long as it trades above 50-day EMA at RS.883.50 level. Only a move below RS.883 level prices may turn weaker towards RS.875 level
MCX Aluminum August is expected to hold the support near RS.252 level and move higher towards RS.256 level. Only below RS.252, it would turn weaker again towards RS.248. MCX Zinc August is likely to move north towards RS.272 level as long as it stays above RS.267 level.
Energy Outlook
Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure on easing geopolitical risk. Optimism over potentially productive US-Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine this week would ease supply concerns. Both the Presidents would likely to meet on 15th August to end the conflict. Additionally, higher OPEC+ supplies and concerns over global economic activity amidst higher US tariffs would hurt oil demand.
On the data front, 60 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 65 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would likely to act as immediate hurdle. An unwinding in the put base has been observed which might open the doors towards next major support at $60 per barrel. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to dip towards RS.5400 level as long as it stays below 50-day EMA at RS.5740 level.
• MCX Natural gas August future is expected to consolidate in the band of RS.260 and RS.275. Only a move below ?260 it would turn weaker towards RS.250.
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