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Gold

Gold futures maintained strength in the previous session, settling up by 0.7 % at Rs 139,083 as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions in Venezuela following the US military operation and capture of President Nicolas Maduro. The resulting uncertainty supported bullion demand, reinforcing gold’s role as a crisis hedge ahead of key US labor market data, including the December jobs report later this week. Commentary from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari that inflation remains elevated and the risk of rising unemployment persists contributed to cautious market positioning, even as interest rates are seen approaching neutral. Broader forecasts have turned bullish, with major banks lifting long-term gold price targets into 2026 amid expectations of steady demand, lower real yields, and persistent global uncertainties. UBS recently revised its outlook, forecasting gold up to near $5,000/oz in 2026, with an upside scenario to $5,400/oz should political or financial risks escalate further.  Physical demand trends in Asia showed gold trading at premiums in key hubs. In India and China, premiums reappeared as spot prices corrected from recently established record highs, reflecting stronger retail interest.  On the technical front, price action is being driven by short covering, with open interest down by 0.52 % to 14,868 contracts even as prices rose by Rs 963. Immediate support lies at Rs 138,340, with a break below this potentially exposing the Rs137,595 level. Resistance is now likely at Rs139,490, and a sustained break above this threshold could see gold testing the Rs 139,895 area.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 137595-139895.

* Gold prices rose driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid political turmoil in Venezuela.

* Bullion surged following the US military operation in Venezuela over the weekend that led to the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

* UBS lifts gold outlook, sees prices rising to $5,000/oz in 2026

Silver

Silver registered a sharp rally on the previous session, settling higher by 5.14% at Rs 258,811, as heightened geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand. The US military action in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, while reports of President Donald Trump threatening a second strike added to risk aversion. Sentiment was further supported by weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, even as markets continue to price in over an 80% probability of a rate hold at the upcoming Fed meeting. Fundamentally, silver continues to draw strength from tightening supply conditions and robust demand from both industrial consumption and investment flows. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade, following record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October, which were shipped largely to London to ease a local market squeeze. Despite record inflows into UK vaults, liquidity in the London silver market remains tight, with borrowing costs still elevated. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 6.22% to 11,629 contracts alongside a strong price rise of Rs 12,656. Silver now finds support at Rs 250,690, with a break below opening downside towards Rs 242,575. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 263,120, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a further rally towards Rs 267,435.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 242575-267435.

* Silver rose as US attack on Venezuela added a new layer of geopolitical risk, supporting demand for safe metals.

* Fed's Kashkari sees risk jobless rate could 'pop' higher

* Investors further digested weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices weakened in the previous session, settling lower by 1.14% at Rs 5,210, as investors booked profits while assessing the broader implications of the US military operation in Venezuela alongside other ongoing geopolitical risks. Market sentiment remained cautious after OPEC+ chose to keep output policy unchanged, avoiding discussions around political crises affecting key producers such as Venezuela, Iran, Russia, and parts of the Middle East. Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, its production has structurally declined due to underinvestment and US sanctions, averaging around 1.1 million barrels per day last year. Recent shutdowns of Venezuelan wells amid a partial US blockade have raised supply risks, though these concerns were offset by rising supply elsewhere. Supply-side pressures persisted as North Sea crude output underpinning the Brent benchmark is expected to rise to about 575,000 bpd in February. US crude production hit record highs, with total output reaching 13.87 million bpd in October, supported by strong gains in New Mexico and offshore Gulf production.  On the outlook, the IEA slightly narrowed its projected surplus for 2026 while maintaining expectations of a still-oversupplied market. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 3.86% to 16,866 contracts alongside a Rs 60 price decline. Crude oil has support at Rs 5,171, with a break below exposing Rs5,132, while resistance is seen at Rs 5,283 and further at Rs 5,356 on a sustained move higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5132-5356.

* Crude fell on profit-taking as markets assessed U.S. action in Venezuela and broader geopolitical risks.

* OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged after avoiding discussions of the multiple political crises affecting the producer group's members.

* President Trump had that the U.S. could impose further increases to import tariffs on India over its Russian oil purchases.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices weakened in the previous session, settling lower by 2.82% at Rs 306.3, as bearish weather forecasts weighed heavily on market sentiment. Forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the US between January 7–11, with warmer conditions extending into the north-central regions during January 12–16. This outlook points to softer heating demand in the near term, limiting price support. Markets are also monitoring geopolitical developments following the US attack on Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Although Venezuela holds nearly 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the immediate impact is more pronounced for crude oil markets; however, any escalation that disrupts LNG shipping routes or infrastructure could eventually spill over into global gas trade. On the supply side, US lower-48 natural gas production rose to 109.2 bcfd in January, close to December’s record levels. LNG exports remained strong, with average flows to major US export terminals climbing to 18.8 bcfd, surpassing December’s previous record. Storage data added to bearish sentiment, as the EIA reported a withdrawal of just 38 bcf, well below expectations and significantly smaller than historical averages. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 9.79% to 28,190 while prices declined Rs 8.9. Natural gas has support at Rs 300.6, with further downside toward Rs 294.8, while resistance is seen at Rs 313.5 and then Rs 320.6 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 294.8-320.6.

* Natural gas slid pressured by forecasts pointing to warmer temperatures.

* Above-normal readings are expected to dominate the eastern two-thirds of the country from January 7–11

* Natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in January

Copper

Copper prices advanced strongly in the previous session, settling higher by 1.9% at Rs 1,338.3, as global prices surged past the $13,000-per-ton mark. The rally was driven by concerns over tightening supply and growing fears that the US could impose tariffs on refined metals, potentially diverting material toward the US and tightening availability in key hubs such as London and Shanghai. Sentiment was further supported by a constructive demand outlook, with sustained consumption from power grid upgrades, renewable energy investments, and rapid data center expansion, while policy support and ample liquidity in China continue to underpin longer-term price strength. On the supply front, disruptions added to bullish momentum. Capstone Copper announced a sharp reduction in output at its Mantoverde mine in Chile following strike action, while Chile’s national copper production fell 7.18% year-on-year in November. Output has also been constrained by halted operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Although the ICSG reported a refined copper surplus of around 122,000 tonnes for the first ten months of 2025, global refined usage still rose a robust 5.5%. In China, imports softened amid high prices, but expectations of a 10% smelter output cut in 2026 are fuelling tighter supply forecasts. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.28% to 14,303 alongside a Rs25 price rise. Copper has support at Rs1,322.3, with downside risk toward Rs1,306.1, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,347.3 and further at Rs 1,356.1 on a sustained breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1306.1-1356.1.

* Copper rose tracking surged past $13,000 a ton, fueled by a tighter global market and fears of US tariffs.

* Prices surged on tightening supply, a strike at Chile’s Mantoverde mine, and U.S. tariff-driven stockpiling.

* LME copper stocks have fallen to 142,550 tons, the lowest since November 17.

Zinc

Zinc prices extended gains in the previous session, settling higher by 1.58% at Rs 315.65, supported by tightening inventories and persistent supply-side disruptions. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 4.3% from December 26, reinforcing concerns over near-term availability. Additional support came from expectations of lower concentrate supply, as several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns. In southwest China, a mine that has largely met its annual production target plans maintenance that could cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while another central China mine is also set to reduce operating days. Fundamental sentiment was mixed. On the positive side, China’s factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, snapping an eight-month contraction streak and encouraging speculative buying on tighter supply expectations. However, upside remained capped by lingering demand concerns, as weak property investment and declining property sales continued to weigh on the broader outlook. China’s refined zinc output rose sharply in November, up 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes, highlighting ample smelting capacity. Globally, the ILZSG reported that the refined zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tonnes in October, while the first ten months of 2025 still showed a surplus of 76,000 tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 11.53% to 4,825 contracts as prices rose Rs 4.9. Zinc has support at Rs 311.8, with further downside toward Rs 307.9, while resistance is seen at Rs 317.9 and then Rs 320.1 on a sustained move higher.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 307.9-320.1.

* Zinc rallied supported by tightening inventories and ongoing supply.

* Zinc inventories dropped 4.3% from December 26, signaling further tightening.

* Several Chinese miners are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce production.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices posted a strong rebound in the previous session, settling higher by 2.74% at Rs 314.8, supported by improving investor sentiment amid early signs of economic stabilization in China following Beijing’s targeted support for key sectors. Additional confidence stemmed from China reiterating its commitment to prevent overcapacity in metal production in order to curb deflationary pressures. With the country expected to breach its 45-million-ton output cap this year, smelters are likely to restrain production growth in 2026, leading producers to divert capped supply toward domestic markets rather than exports. As a result, China’s aluminium exports fell 9.2% year-on-year in November. On the supply side, global disruptions provided further support. Chinese smelters’ overseas expansion plans, particularly in Indonesia, continue to face challenges from high energy costs and regulatory hurdles. At the same time, elevated power prices, equipment failures, bauxite sourcing issues, and geopolitical risks have led to suspensions at smelters in regions such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. Inventory trends were mixed, with SHFE stocks edging up 1%, while aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports declined 5.2% month-on-month. Global primary aluminium output rose marginally in November, and China’s production increased 2.5% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.54% to 3,908 contracts alongside an Rs 8.4 price rise. Aluminium has support at Rs 309.5, with a break lower opening Rs 304.2, while resistance is seen at Rs 317.7 and further at Rs 320.6 on sustained strength.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 304.2-320.6.

* Aluminium gains as investor optimism reflects early signs of economic stabilization after Beijing’s support for key sectors.

* China, continued policy support and ample liquidity are underpinning longer-term gains in copper prices.

* China was set to breach its 45-million-ton output cap this year, forcing smelters to refrain from growing output in 2026.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged marginally lower by 0.19% to settle at Rs 18,344, weighed by expectations of higher acreage following favourable rains during the ongoing sowing season. India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with expanded acreage but only moderate supply growth, as weather irregularities and localized disease pressures offset gains in planted area. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up nearly 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, downside remains limited as arrivals continue to stay below normal and both domestic and international demand remains firm. Farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced inventories significantly, providing a strong base ahead of new crop arrivals. Yield losses due to excess rains have been reported in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. All-India dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last year, though lower carry-forward stocks cap the net rise in availability. Unseasonal rains impacted about 15% of Marathwada’s area, yet Maharashtra’s production is still seen rising to 54 lakh bags. Export sentiment remains supportive, with April–October 2025 exports up 2.05% year-on-year, while imports fell sharply by 48%. In Nizamabad spot market, prices gained 1.89%, reflecting underlying firmness. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest up 1.04% to 15,605 while prices fell Rs 34. Support is seen at Rs 17,806, below which prices may test Rs 17,266. Resistance is placed at Rs 18,968, and a breakout could lead to Rs 19,590.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17266-19590.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16807.5 Rupees gained by 1.89 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined sharply by 2.39% to settle at Rs 22,065, pressured by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate existing stocks. However, downside remains limited as weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing continue to lend underlying support to prices. As of 29 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year, making it one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to uneven rainfall and unprepared fields. Arrivals at the Unjha market remain very low, with good-quality cumin commanding premium prices, reflecting tight near-term availability. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains highly price-sensitive. Traders noted that the recent weakness was largely due to the conclusion of the retail season and continued inactivity from foreign buyers, with current export commitments being met from existing stocks. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded before season-end, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, mainly due to reduced sowing. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 fell 13.21% year-on-year, reinforcing weak overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 4.86% to 3,645 and prices falling Rs 540. Support is seen at Rs 21,800, below which prices may test Rs 21,540. Resistance is placed at Rs 22,520, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs 22,980.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21540-22980.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22457.8 Rupees dropped by -0.32 percent.

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