Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3350 and rise towards $3400 on softer dollar - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3350 and rise towards $3400 on softer dollar. Further, tariff concerns and US interest rate cut hopes would support the precious metal to hold firm. As er the CME Fed watch tool September rate cut bets has gone above 92%. Furthermore, stagflation concerns would also support the precious metal to hold its gains. Meanwhile, investors will eye on progress in talks between US and Russia. Any positive outcome might reduce the precious metals safe-haven appeal.
* On the data front, a strong call base at 3450 might act as immediate hurdle. MCX Gold October is expected to hold support near RS.100,500 and move higher towards RS.102,200 level.
* MCX Silver Sep is expected to hold the key support near RS.113,500 and move higher towards RS.115,800 level. Only below RS.113,500, it may fall towards RS.112,200.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to remain under pressure amid risk–off sentiments and sluggish demand from China. Furthermore, tariff concerns and weaker than expected US economic numbers would hurt risk sentiments. Moreover, rising inventory levels in LME could also weigh on the metal prices. Meanwhile, supply side issues from Chile would limit its downside. Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco has halted ore processing at its biggest copper mine leading to drop in output.
* MCX Copper August is expected to consolidate between RS.878 and RS.890 level. Only a move below RS.878 level prices may turn weak towards RS.872 level
* MCX Aluminum August is expected to hold the support near RS.251 level and move higher towards RS.255 level. Only below RS.251, it would turn weaker again towards RS.248. MCX Zinc August is likely to move north towards RS.270 level as long as it stays above RS.265 level.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure on easing supply disruption. Optimism over potentially productive US-Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine would ease supply concerns. Both the Presidents would likely to meet in the coming days. Additionally, higher OPEC+ supplies and concerns over weaker US economic numbers would also weigh on prices.
* On the data front, 60 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 70 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would likely to act as immediate hurdle. NYMEX crude has breached the $65 per barrel mark, an unwinding in the put base has been observed which might open the doors towards next major support at $60 per barrel. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to dip towards RS.5400 level as long as it stays below RS.5700 level.
* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to consolidate in the band of RS.260 and RS.275. Only above RS.275 it would turn bullish towards ?280.
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