Zinc trading range for the day is 274.1-278.3 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.04% at 108,986 amid profit booking after a recent rally driven by an unexpected decline in US producer prices. Both headline and core PPI fell by -0.1% in August, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, led by a sharp drop in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins. This data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume rate cuts at next week’s meeting. Geopolitical tensions provided additional support to gold as US President Donald Trump called on the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India to exert pressure over the war in Ukraine. Escalating unrest in the Middle East and Poland’s shooting down of Russian drones added to safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, China continued to expand its gold reserves, holding 74.02 million fine troy ounces at the end of August, valued at $253.84 billion. Despite strong investment demand globally, physical gold demand in major Asian hubs saw a decline due to record-high prices. Dealers in China and India offered steep discounts of $12–$16 per ounce to attract buyers, reflecting weak physical off-take. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -4.07% to 17,009 lots. Gold is currently supported at 108,655, with a further test of 108,320 likely if the downward pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at 109,340, and a break above could lead to 109,690.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 108320-109690.
* Gold settled flat on profit booking after prices rose after an unexpected decline in US producer prices
* Headline and core PPI both declined 0.1% in August, defying forecasts.
* Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven gold amid Trump’s tariff threats on China.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.58% at 125,180, supported by a weaker-than-expected US producer price data release. Both headline and core PPI declined by -0.1% in August, against forecasts of a 0.3% rise, mainly due to a steep fall in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. This followed disappointing US labor market data earlier in the month, reinforcing market expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. All eyes now shift toward Thursday’s consumer inflation report for further policy direction. Safe-haven demand continued to support silver prices amid mounting geopolitical tensions. Key factors included President Donald Trump’s urging for the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India as leverage against Russia, rising unrest in the Middle East, and Poland’s interception of Russian drones during a significant attack in Ukraine. Investment interest remained strong as net inflows into silver ETPs rose by 95 million ounces (Moz) in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total of 2024. By the end of June, global silver ETP holdings stood at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% shy of the all-time peak seen in February 2021. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by -2.9% to settle at 17,163 lots. Silver is now supported at 124,760, with a further test of 124,345 likely if the downward pressure persists. Resistance is seen at 125,590, and a sustained break above this level could push prices toward 126,005.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 124345-126005.
* Silver rose as weaker US PPI data boosted expectations of rate cuts.
* Geopolitical risks boosted safe-haven demand, including Trump’s EU tariff threats.
* Markets now price in multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Crude Oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 5,622, driven by geopolitical concerns and supply-side uncertainties. The Israeli military targeted Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, marking an escalation in Middle East tensions. This came shortly after warnings of a potential strike on Gaza City, adding to market anxiety over possible supply disruptions from the region. Further bullish sentiment stemmed from OPEC+ announcing only a modest production increase for October, significantly smaller than previous monthly hikes, indicating tighter supply expectations. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to pressure Russia fueled broader market uncertainty. On the supply front, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant rise in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 1 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 4.7 million barrels, much higher than the anticipated 35,000-barrel increase. China’s crude oil imports also remained robust, rising by 0.8% YoY in August to 49.49 million metric tons, as high operating rates continued at state-owned and independent refineries. Technically, the market is under short covering with a -4.98% drop in open interest, settling at 10,165 lots. Current support is at 5,567, with a possible test of 5,511 if selling intensifies. On the upside, resistance is now likely at 5,663, and a sustained move above this level could see prices testing 5,703.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5511-5703.
* Crude oil gains driven by concerns of potential supply disruptions amid rising Middle East tensions.
* Crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels in the week ended September 5, the EIA said.
* Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 365,000 barrels in the week, the EIA said.
Natural Gas
Natural gas yesterday settled lower by -1.8% at 267.7, pressured by record-high production, ample storage levels, and forecasts of milder weather curbing near-term demand. U.S. output in the Lower 48 states averaged 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, slightly below August’s record 108.3 bcfd but still near historic highs. On a daily basis, production fell to a preliminary eight-week low of 106.3 bcfd, compared with the July 29 record of 109.6 bcfd. Despite this dip, robust output throughout the year has enabled larger-than-usual injections into storage. Storage data highlighted a 55 bcf build for the week ending August 29, matching market expectations but well above the 13 bcf build seen during the same period last year. This brought inventories to 3,272 bcf, which remains 2.2% below year-ago levels but stands 5.6% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, weather forecasts suggest conditions will stay warmer than normal through late September, delaying the seasonal uptick in heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record natural gas production of 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before a slight dip in 2026, with LNG exports rising sharply to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest jumping 19.69% to 26,875 lots while prices fell by 4.9. Immediate support is seen at 264, with further weakness likely toward 260.2. Resistance is placed at 273.3, and a break higher could push prices toward 278.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.2-278.8.
* Natural gas prices fell on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage.
* Pressure also seen amid a small decline in flows to LNG export plants, and forecasts for milder weather.
* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026 – EIA
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 907.3, supported by ongoing supply concerns and import activity from top consumer China. Supply-side pressures intensified after Freeport-McMoRan announced a temporary halt at its major Grasberg mine in Indonesia, due to a large flow of wet materials restricting access and evacuation routes for workers. Meanwhile, China’s new bank loan issuance in August is expected to have rebounded, recovering from a contraction in the previous month. Despite this, Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for a fifth consecutive month, reflecting sluggish domestic demand amid uncertainty over a trade deal with the U.S. Import appetite remained firm, bolstering the market, with the Yangshan copper premium rising 1.8% to $58 a ton, its highest in three months. Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, exported $4.16 billion of copper in August, down 2.2% year-on-year. LME-registered copper stocks stood at 155,825 tons, as outflows of 2,125 tons and fresh cancellations of 8,500 tons in South Korea weighed on inventories. Globally, the refined copper market showed a 36,000-ton surplus in June, an improvement from May’s 79,000-ton surplus. However, the first half of 2025 recorded a cumulative surplus of 251,000 tons, down from 395,000 tons in the same period last year. Technically, the copper market is under fresh buying, supported by a 1.81% gain in open interest to settle at 5,909. Immediate support is seen at 903.1, with a test of 898.9 likely if prices weaken. On the upside, resistance is placed at 909.7, and a sustained move above could target 912.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 898.9-912.1.
* Copper gains amid ongoing supply concerns following global mine disruptions.
* China's new bank loan issuance in August is expected to have increased, bouncing back from a shock contraction.
* Import appetite in China underpinned the market, with the Yangshan copper premium up 1.8% to $58 a ton, its three-month high.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 276.7, driven by supply concerns and tight inventories across global markets. LME registered warehouse stocks dropped significantly to 50,825 tons, marking a near 75% decline since mid-April. Additionally, 15,375 tons of zinc earmarked for delivery (cancelled warrants) suggest further drawdown from the LME system. These tight supply dynamics led to a backwardation in the market, with the cash contract currently trading at a premium of around $18 per ton over the three-month forward, reflecting heightened urgency for physical zinc. On the supply front, China’s zinc ingot production reached a three-year high of 626,200 metric tons in August, although September output is projected to slightly dip to 609,800 mt. Still, the downside remains limited due to expected capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners, pressured by the imbalance between capacity and demand. In addition, smelter operations in South China were impacted by heavy rainfall, compounding supply tightness. Globally, the zinc market showed mixed signals. The deficit narrowed to 27,200 metric tons in June from 31,400 tons in May, but the first half of 2025 posted a surplus of 47,000 tons. China’s refined zinc production increased by 3% MoM and 23% YoY in July, supported by increased smelter production. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, supported by a 2.35% gain in open interest to settle at 3,491. Immediate support stands at 275.4, with a test of 274.1 likely on weakness. Resistance is seen at 277.5, and a sustained break above could push prices towards 278.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 274.1-278.3.
* Zinc rises as LME warehouse stocks fall nearly 75% since mid-April to 50,825 tons.
* Cancelled warrants or zinc earmarked for delivery indicate another 15,375 tons are due to leave the LME system.
* Zinc sees backwardation as LME cash trades ~$18/ton above three-month forward on supply concerns.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled slightly down by -0.1% at 255.25 amid a global supply surplus and subdued demand sentiment. In June, global primary aluminium production reached 6.0944 million tons, exceeding consumption of 5.9113 million tons, which resulted in a surplus of 183,100 tons. Despite this surplus, LME aluminium inventories dropped to a two-month low of 375,025 tons, following fresh cancellations of 67,400 tons in Malaysia, indicating tight physical availability in the near term. Price pressures were further compounded by reduced Japanese buyer premiums, now at $98–$103 per ton for Q4 shipments, down 5–9% from the current quarter. The July-September quarter premiums dropped by 41% compared to the prior quarter, reflecting persistently weak demand. Geopolitical factors also played a role: Guinea’s military-led government revoked all mining licenses, potentially stalling ore production crucial for major producers like Emirates Global Aluminum. Meanwhile, South32 announced the closure of its Mozal plant in Mozambique due to power supply issues, impacting Africa’s aluminium output. On the demand side, China, the world’s largest consumer, continued robust import activity, bringing in 360,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminium in July—a 38.2% YoY rise. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 1.46% to 4,233 lots while prices declined by -0.25 rupees. Immediate support is now at 254.8, with a further test of 254.3 likely if selling persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at 255.8, and a sustained move above could push aluminium prices toward 256.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.3-256.3.
* Aluminium dropped as the global primary aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June.
* Aluminium inventories in LME warehouses drop to two-month low at 375,025 tons.
* Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $98-$103 for October-December primary metal shipments.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4.66% at 12,634, supported by concerns over crop damage caused by recent heavy rainfall in major growing regions. In Nanded, approximately 15% of turmeric crop area was adversely affected, which added significant bullishness to the market. Despite this sharp rally, the upside remained capped due to expectations of increased acreage this season, driven by favorable sowing conditions and other crop alternatives offering relatively lower profitability. The IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September for some parts of South India is also adding to the uncertainty, further supporting prices. Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are almost depleted, with no fresh arrivals reported over the last two days, contributing to firmness in the market. At Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals continue to see strong buyer interest, with new stock fetching consistently higher prices compared to older inventory, mainly due to superior quality. Turmeric exports during April to June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the same period last year, though June exports saw a decline of 7.93% year-on-year and 28.21% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest dropping by -1.4% to settle at 17,240 lots. Support is seen at 12,192, with a further test of 11,748 likely if prices slide. On the upside, resistance is at 12,938, and a decisive break could test 13,240.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11748-13240.
* Turmeric prices rose as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops.
* Heavy rains damage 15% of turmeric crops in Nanded.
* Turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13152 Rupees dropped by -0.89 percent.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 19,580, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. The market saw limited downside support after the GST council lowered the GST rate to 5%, expected to bolster FMCG exports and domestic demand in the near term. However, the bearish sentiment prevailed as traders cited continued foreign buyer inactivity, ample existing stocks, and tepid export interest. Farmers are reported to hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season end, leaving a large carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. This season's cumin production is projected to range between 90-92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year's 1.10 crore bags, driven by a reduction in sowing area. Gujarat’s production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s is projected at 48-50 lakh bags. Jeera exports from April to June 2025 declined by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes compared to the same period last year. June 2025 exports rose by 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but saw a sharp 29.67% drop from May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 8.51% to 2,448 lots. Support is seen at 19,500, with a further test of 19,420 if the decline continues. On the upside, resistance is at 19,710, and a decisive move above this could test 19,840.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19420-19840.
* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19739.3 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views
