Weekly Broader Outlook 18th Aug 2025 by GEPL Capital Ltd
NIFTY 50 : 24631 weekly change (+1.10%)
Inference & Expectations
* In our previous report, we highlighted the weak structure of the NIFTY, which had been maintaining a Lower High–Lower Low formation for the past six weeks. In the latest week, the index witnessed a bounce; however, it formed an inside-week candle, indicating indecision. However on the daily chart, NIFTY has maintained a Higher High–Higher Low formation for the last four sessions and has sustained above its 100-DEMA for the past couple of days—an initial sign of positivity. A decisive confirmation of strength will come only if the index sustains above 24,736, which marks the previous week’s high. The weekly RSI (currently at 52) has turned upward after taking support near the 50 level, suggesting improving positive momentum.
* For Traders: Long positions may be considered above 24750 level. Then index holds upside potential towards 25650 (3.63%) and further towards 26277 (6.16%). An intermediate resistance is expected around the 25000 level. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss should be placed at 24300 on a closing basis.
* For Investors: Investors can consider accumulating if Index sustains above 24750. The target for this investment is set at 26,277 (6.16%) followed by 27000 (9.09%) level, offering significant upside potential.
NIFTY MIDCAP 150 : 21017 weekly change (+0.81%)
Observation
* The Nifty Midcap 150 index recently formed an Equal Top pattern near the 22,000 level and has been in a corrective phase in the recent past.
* On the weekly chart, the index has maintained a Lower High–Lower Low formation for four consecutive weeks, reflecting a weak undertone.
* On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 21,500 and 20,700. A decisive breakdown below 20,700 could further deteriorate the near-term structure, opening the door for declines toward 20,100 and 19,600.
* For the past six sessions, the index has hovered around its 100-DEMA (20,977), signaling indecision. Meanwhile, the RSI remains below 45, highlighting weak momentum within the current range.
* Breadth analysis reinforces this bearish view, with only 43 stocks trading above their 20-day EMA while 107 remain below it, reflecting weak overall participation.
Inference & Expectations
* Based on the overall price structure and the evidence supported by indicators, it can be inferred that the NIFTY MIDCAP 150 Index trend is weak.
* We expect the Index to remain weak below 20700 and potential downside would be 19600 (- 5.31%) level.
* Our view will be negated if we see prices sustaining above 21500
NIFTY SMLCAP 250: 16656 weekly change (+0.69%)
Observation
* The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has formed a Swing Lower Top near the 18,000 level on the higher timeframe, highlighting a weak undertone.
* On the weekly chart, the index has maintained a Lower High– Lower Low formation for the past four weeks.
* On the daily chart, it has been forming a Bearish Flag pattern for the last four sessions and is sustaining below its 100-DEMA (16,820). A breakdown below 16,400 could open the downside towards 15,500 and 14,800.
* Market breadth also reflects weakness, with only 60 out of 250 stocks trading above their 20-day EMA, while 190 remain below— indicating a bearish internal structure.
* Furthermore, the RSI continues to hover below the 40 mark, reinforcing sustained bearish momentum.
Inference & Expectations
* Looking at the overall structure of prices and the evidence provided by indicator we can infer that the NIFTY SMLCAP 250 is in Negative trend.
* Going ahead we expect the Index to remain weak below 16400 and potential downside would be 15500 (-5.48%) level.
* Our bearish view will be negated above 17100 mark.
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