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Total generation dipped 0.94% YoY to 134BU in November 2025 due to cooler temperatures
and softer industrial activity, marking the first November demand contraction in five
years. Thermal output fell 6% YoY with plant load factor (PLF) sliding to 67%, while hydro
and renewables delivered growth of 16% YoY and 28% YoY, respectively. Despite FY26 YTD
generation remaining lower, early December trends show a 5.74% rebound. Peak demand
rose 4% YoY to 215.5GW, supported by gradual normalization post an early Monsoon.
Market activity remains robust, with IEX volume up 17.7% YoY, driven by a 40.2% jump in
real-time market (RTM) trades.

Power generation declines ~0.9% YoY in November to 134BU: After a subdued October,
generation continues downward trend in November. Power generation declined ~0.9%
YoY to 134BU in November. Lower temperature and slowdown in industrial activity kept
electricity demand weak. This was the first instance in at least five years where power
demand contracted in November. Usually, demand strengthens in the late months of the
year as industrial operations ramp up and agricultural activity rebounds following the
Monsoon. Generation for coal plants declined 6% YoY to 97BU. PLF of thermal plants fell
to 67.0% vs ~69.5% last year. Hydro generation increased 16% YoY to 10.9BU. Renewable
generation rose 28% YoY to 18.5BU. Generation declined 0.47% YoY to 1,239BU for FY26
YTD. Despite subdued performance in FY26 YTD, power generation is reviving in
December and has risen~ 5.7% YoY to 37.63BU for the first eight days of December on high
base, up 9.3% YoY in December 2024.

Peak demand increases 4% YoY in November: Irrespective of declining power generation,
peak demand revived, up 4%YoY to 215.5GW in November. Peak demand increased 2.4%
MoM. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) had projected peak power demand to touch
270GW in FY26, but actual demand fell short, due to early Monsoon, which reduced cooling
needs. Peak power demand had touched an all-time high of 250GW in May 2024. The
previous all-time high peak power demand of ~243.3GW was recorded in September 2023.
However, this Summer (from April), record peak power demand was ~242.8GW in June.
Lower temperatures on early arrival of Monsoon led to lower demand for cooling during the
Summer months.

Volume rises 17.7% YoY in November: IEX achieved monthly electricity traded volume of
11,409MU in November, up 17.7% YoY. Around 0.474mn of Renewable Energy Certificates
(REC) were traded. The day-ahead market (DAM) segment achieved 5,668MU volume in
November 2025 vs 5,651MU in November 2024, up 0.3% YoY. RTM volume rose to 4,233MU
in November 2025 from 3,019MU in November 2024, up 40.2% YoY.

Regulated firms, renewables and hydro attractive: We prefer regulated PSU companies,
such as NTPC and Power Grid Corporation, due to assured returns from regulated assets
and robust capacity addition pipeline. CESC offers potential upside, driven by its
significant renewable capacity expansion targets while NLC India appears attractive with
plans to double its regulated equity by FY30. In the long term, the hydro sector looks
promising, due to upcoming capacity addition and renewed focus on the industry.

Renewable tenders of 1.87GW floated in November
More than 1,870MW of RE tenders were issued in November 2025 under the project development
category. CESC has invited bids for a 600MW ISTS connected wind-solar hybrid project to be located
anywhere in India. More than 3,250MW of EPC tenders were issued in November 2025. NTPC has
issued a 2.67GWh standalone BESS EPC tender for BESS implementation at nine of its thermal power
stations in six States. In November 2025, a total of 1,000MW of RE capacity and 7,330MWh of energy
storage capacity was allocated to RE developers under the project development category. REMCL’s
1,000MW RTC Auction was awarded in November 2025, with ReNew Power (200MW), Bhalki Solar
(200MW) and Purvah Green (180MW) emerging as the winners with the highest awarded capacity.
The discovered tariff amounted to INR 4.35/kWh. Around 1,900MW of EPC solar capacity was
allocated this month. The largest award was NREDCAP’s 1,200MW rooftop EPC tender, with key
allocations going to Kosol Energie (~291.5MW), Rotomag Enertec (~139.5MW), Sadbhav Futuretech
(90MW) and several smaller vendors in the 10–80MW range. Other awards include MAHAGENCO’s
300MW solar EPC tender split between Pace Digitek (200MW) and Bondada Engineering (100MW),
and SECI’s 200MW Madhya Pradesh Solar EPC package awarded to Amar Infrastructure

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