U.S. Wheat Outlook for 2025/26: Higher Supplies, Lower Exports by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook projects increased supplies and higher ending stocks, though reduced exports and a modestly higher domestic use. U.S. wheat production is expected to fall 3% from the previous year due to lower harvested acreage, although yields are slightly up. Despite this, domestic food use is set to reach a record high. Exports are forecast to decline, as global competition intensifies. The global wheat outlook anticipates a record production of 808.5 million tons, with increased trade and consumption. However, global ending stocks are only slightly higher than last year. The outlook suggests a slight dip in U.S. wheat prices, expected to average \$5.30 per bushel.
Key Highlights
* U.S. wheat supplies up by 2% from 2024/25.
* Wheat production expected to decrease by 3% due to lower acreage.
* Domestic food use projected to reach a record high.
* U.S. wheat exports expected to fall to 800 million bushels.
* Global wheat trade up 6.9 million tons, with EU leading.
The 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook indicates an overall increase in supplies but a slight reduction in exports. U.S. wheat production is expected to decline by 3% from the previous year, primarily due to lower harvested acreage, though the yield is projected to rise slightly. The total U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,921 million bushels. Despite this, U.S. domestic use is expected to increase, particularly in food use, which is anticipated to reach a record 977 million bushels.
On the export front, U.S. wheat exports are forecast to decrease to 800 million bushels, as the U.S. faces growing competition from major global wheat producers, such as Russia, the EU, and Argentina. This, combined with higher projected ending stocks, leads to a forecast of the highest U.S. wheat stock levels in six years, pegged at 923 million bushels. Consequently, the U.S. wheat season-average price is expected to dip to \$5.30 per bushel, a slight decline from last year, driven by larger stocks and a decrease in U.S. corn prices.
Globally, wheat supplies for 2025/26 are expected to rise to a record 808.5 million tons, with significant increases in production across many key exporters. This includes the EU, Russia, and Canada, though production is expected to decline in some regions like Australia and Pakistan. Global consumption is projected to hit a record 808 million tons, driven by continued growth in food and industrial uses.
Finally,
The U.S. wheat outlook reflects higher supplies and increased domestic use but faces challenges in exports due to global competition, resulting in a slight dip in prices.
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