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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex gold held its losses on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded from a one-year low to above 99, with investors looking past weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 in April, the lowest since October 2021, while JOLTS job openings declined to 7.19 million in March, missing forecasts. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand eased amid growing optimism that President Trump may relax tariffs on automobiles and car parts. Treasury Secretary Bessent delivered remarks but provided no clear update on U.S.-China trade talks. Today, gold extended its decline toward $3,310 after President Trump signed an executive order aimed at softening the impact of his auto tariffs and cited progress in trade negotiations with several countries. Additionally, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the Trump administration had reached its first trade agreement, though he declined to reveal details, saying the deal was awaiting approval from the other country involved. Market attention now turns to key upcoming U.S. economic indicators, including Q1 GDP, ADP employment, Core PCE, and pending home sales, which may offer insight into conditions just before Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

WTI crude fell 2.6% to $60.1 per barrel yesterday as concerns over a trade war dampened the demand outlook, while expectations for easing supply disruptions increased. Oil prices are on track for a nearly 16% monthly decline, the worst since April 2021, weighed down by hopes of a Russia-Ukraine truce, progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, and reports that OPEC+ will increase production for a second straight month in June. These developments, along with uncertainty surrounding the effects of U.S.-led trade wars, have kept prices under pressure. Today, WTI crude continues to fall, dipping below $60 per barrel after China’s factory activity posted its worst contraction since December 2023, highlighting the early impact of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Markets remain cautious ahead of key U.S. data releases and the EIA’s inventory report due later today. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated a 3.76 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending April 25. If confirmed by the EIA, it would mark the fifth consecutive weekly inventory build, contrary to expectations of a 600,000-barrel draw.