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Below the Quote on Crude and Gold 02 July 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities 

COMEX August gold futures rose 1.3% on Tuesday to settle near $3,350 per ounce, supported by a decline in the US dollar to 96.4, its lowest level since February 2022. Gold also gained support from fiscal concerns, as Trump’s proposed “big, beautiful” tax bill is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. Markets largely shrugged off stronger-than-expected JOLTS data showing job openings unexpectedly rose in May to their highest level since November 2024. Today, gold is holding steady near $3,350 amid renewed trade tensions as Trump said he is not considering an extension and will not delay the July 9 deadline for assigning tariff rates on trading partners. Besides, traders look forward to the US jobs report, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could strengthen the case for interest-rate cuts.

WTI crude oil surged to $66 per barrel amid lingering uncertainty over whether the Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold. Iran reportedly denied a visit request from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect nuclear sites in the country, deepening uncertainty around its nuclear program and adding ambiguity to its diplomatic standoff with the US Better-than-expected PMI data from China also supported prices, with private sector data showing factory activity expanded in June, rebounding from its worst contraction since September 2022 in the previous month. Today, oil steadied near $65.50 per barrel as markets remained cautious ahead of the OPEC+ output policy decision on July 6 and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report, following the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) surprise crude build of 680,000 barrels for the week ending June 27.