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Bullion – Spot gold and silver prices fell sharply for a second straight session on Thursday as a stronger U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook weighed on bullion. The Dollar Index surged to a 13-month high of 100.9, pushing gold down over 1% to settle at $4,210/oz and silver down more than 3% to $65.7/oz. Markets continued to price in the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates later this year. Risk appetite improved after Trump signed a preliminary agreement to end the West Asia conflict, boosting equities and reducing safe-haven demand for bullion. Supporting the dollar, U.S. jobless claims fell to 226K, the Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 10.3, and leading indicators increased 0.1% m/m. Today, gold slipped below $4,170/oz while lower oil prices may ease inflation and support future rate-cut hopes, a stronger dollar and higher-rate expectations remain bearish for precious metals.

Crude Oil – WTI crude remained under pressure as markets focused on recovering supply following President Trump's preliminary peace agreement with Iran, paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the return of millions of barrels of Gulf exports. Brent crude ended slightly higher on Thursday after Vice President JD Vance warned Israel against further strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah, briefly reviving geopolitical risk concerns. OPEC maintained a constructive demand outlook, projecting global oil consumption to rise to 113.3 million bpd by 2030 from about 105.1 million bpd in 2025. In contrast, the IEA warned global supply could exceed demand growth by up to 6 million bpd by 2027. Today, oil prices drifted lower as evidence of Hormuz normalization increased. Nearly 10 million barrels of crude transited the strait on Thursday, including Saudi tankers, signaling improving Gulf supply flows and weighing on prices.

Natural Gas – Nymex gas futures closed with nearly 3% gains above $3.2/mmBtu on Thursday buoyed by smaller than expected build in US stocks and continued strength in LNG export flows.

Base metals – Base metals ended mixed yesterday, with zinc and lead advancing while copper weakened as macroeconomic factors overshadowed physical market fundamentals. Zinc gained over 1%, supported by ongoing supply disruptions and tight near-term availability. Copper faced pressure after Fed signaled a more hawkish policy stance that could weigh on industrial activity and investment across key copper-consuming sectors. Additional pressure stemmed from the resumption of concentrate exports from Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi mine, easing immediate supply concerns. However, copper’s medium-term fundamentals remain supportive. Continued inventory accumulation on COMEX ahead of the June 30 U.S. tariff review suggests efforts to secure material before potential trade restrictions, tightening supplies elsewhere. Structural demand growth and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty continue to provide underlying support to the copper market.

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