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2026-08-02 12:35:03 pm | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd
India Strategy : OMCs temper Financials and Metal strength by Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd
India Strategy : OMCs temper Financials and Metal strength by Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd

* In this report, we present our interim review of the 1QFY27 earnings season.

* As of 31st Jul’26, 211/39 companies within the MOFSL Universe/Nifty have announced their 1QFY27 results. These companies constituted

i) 70% and 76% of the estimated PAT for the MOFSL and Nifty Universe, respectively

ii) 50% of India's market capitalization; and iii) 82% weightage in the Nifty.

* The earnings of the aforesaid 211 MOFSL Universe companies inched up 2% YoY (vs. our est. of a 10% YoY dip), primarily weighed down by OMCs affected by elevated crude prices. Barring OMCs, earnings remained healthy; the MOFSL Universe posted a 17% YoY earnings growth (vs. our est. of +13% YoY). In contrast, ex-Financials, earnings remained weak; earnings of the MOFSL Universe declined 8% YoY (vs. an est. of -24% YoY).

* The overall MOFSL earnings growth was fueled by BFSI, which grew 20% YoY. Metals jumped 53% YoY, Technology rose 11% YoY, and Automobiles increased 7% YoY. In contrast, earnings growth was hit by OMCs (loss of INR181b vs. profit of INR162b YoY), Cement (-8% YoY), Healthcare (-6% YoY), and Interglobe (loss of INR3.8b vs. profit of INR21.6b).

* Earnings of the 39 Nifty companies that have declared results so far have grown 11% YoY (vs. our est. of +7% YoY). The earnings growth was led by Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Axis Bank. These five companies contributed 59% to the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely, Interglobe Aviation, ITC, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Cipla, and Maruti Suzuki dragged Nifty earnings lower. Six companies within the Nifty reported lowerthan-expected profits, while 20 posted a beat, and 13 recorded in-line results.

* Analyzing the Caps: Large-caps deliver better-than-estimated results, while Midcaps report a decline: Within our MOFSL Universe, Large-caps(65 companies) posted earnings growth of 6% YoY (vs. our est. of -8% YoY). However, our Mid-cap Universe (56 companies) delivered an earnings dip of 31% YoY (vs. our est. of -31%), primarily due to losses in the OMC segment within the O&G sector. Excluding OMCs, Large-caps and Mid-caps delivered earnings growth of 15% YoY and 25% YoY, respectively. Notably, ex-Financials, earnings of the MOFSL Large-caps and Mid-caps Universes declined 1% YoY and 62% YoY, respectively.

* Small-caps(90 companies) delivered a healthy performance, with earnings rising 32% YoY (our est. of +26%), supported by a favorable base (vs. a 2% YoY decline in 1QFY26) and driven largely by Financials. Excluding Financials, Small-caps delivered earnings growth of 12% YoY (vs. our est. of 11%).

* The beat-miss dynamics: The beat-miss ratio for the MOFSL Universe was favorable, with 49% of the companies exceeding our estimates, while 22% reported a miss at the PAT level. Conversely, within the large-cap/small-cap universes, the ratio was better, with 57%/51% of the companies exceeding our estimates. In mid-caps, 36% of the coverage universe exceeded our estimates.

* The upgrade-to-downgrade ratio at 1.6x: To date, 70/45 companies within the MOFSL Coverage Universe have reported an upgrade/downgrade of more than 3% each, leading to a favorable upgrade-to-downgrade ratio for FY27E.

* The EBITDA margin of the MOFSL Universe (ex-Financials) contracted by 350bp YoY to 12.8%, owing to margin contraction in Oil & Gas, Automobiles, Healthcare,Cements, Capital Goods, and Consumer. However, the margin experienced an improvement in the Metals, Utilities, Chemicals, and Real Estate sectors

Key result highlights: Modest performance, anchored by BFSI and Metals

* Aggregate performance of the MOFSL Universe: sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT were +21%/0%/2%/2% YoY (vs. our est. of +17%/-8%/-10%/-10%). Excluding OMCs, the MOFSL Universe recorded a sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 18%/11%/17%/17% YoY (vs. our est. of +15%/8%/12%/13%) in 1QFY27 so far.

* The 39 Nifty stocks reported a sales/EBITDA/PBT/PAT growth of 19%/6%/11%/11% YoY (vs. an est. of +16%/4%/7%/7%). Of these, 20/6 companies surpassed/missed our PAT estimates, each by more than 5%.

* Nifty-50 companies that surpassed/missed our estimates: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, NTPC, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, L&T, Adani Ports, M&M, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto, Ultratech Cement, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, Nestle, Jio Financial, Cipla, SBI Life Insurance, and Tata Consumer exceeded our profit estimates. Conversely, Interglobe, ITC, Coal India, Tech Mahindra, Bharat Electronics, and Eternal missed our profit estimates.

 

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