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Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is likely to hold above $4000 and move higher towards $4160 per ounce amid softer dollar and safe-haven buying. Furthermore, prices will get support as the Fed’s wait and watch approach despite inflation concerns stemming from renewed hostilities in the Middle East. However, expectation for tighter monetary policy may limit its gains. As per the CME Fed-watch tool, September rate hike probability moved to 63% from 57% a day ago. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key monetary policy decision from BOJ, which could bring further volatility in prices.

• MCX Gold October is expected to move higher towards Rs145,500- Rs146,500, as long as it holds above Rs142,500 level.

• MCX Silver September is expected to consolidate between Rs215,000- Rs221,000 level. Only a move above Rs221,000, it would turn bullish towards Rs225,400 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid softer dollar and easing concerns over tighter monetary policy. Moreover, supply concerns from Chile due to deadly storm threatened copper production and falling global stocks in LME and SHFE would push prices higher. The Yangshan copper premium held above $100 a ton, suggesting active buying interest. Meanwhile, investors will eye for updates from the Politburo meeting in top consumer China, where policymakers are widely expected to refrain from announcing major new stimulus measures and instead focus on implementing existing fiscal policies to support the slowing economy.

• MCX Copper August is expected to rise towards Rs1350 level as long as it trades above Rs1328 level. Only a break above Rs1350 level, it will move higher towards Rs1355-Rs1360 level

• MCX Aluminum August is expected to find support near Rs337-Rs338 level and rebound towards Rs345 amid supply concerns. MCX Zinc August is likely to hold support near Rs376 level and rise towards Rs385 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX crude oil is expected to remain range-bound, constrained by rising shipment flows through the Strait of Hormuz and subdued demand from China. To avoid the waterway, Saudi Arabia has rerouted shipments through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, though this alternative route faces threats from Tehran-backed Houthi forces. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions continue to threaten supply disruptions, limiting downward price pressure. Markets will also monitor upcoming Russian oil supplies for further direction.

• On the data front, a strong put base at $80 strike to act as major support, whereas on the upside $85 call strike has highest call OI and likely to act as key hurdle. MCX Crude oil August is likely to trade in the range of Rs7800-Rs8300 level. Only a move above Rs8300, it will turn bullish.

• MCX Natural gas August is expected to find support near Rs257-Rs258 level and rebound towards Rs270- Rs274 level.

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