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Gold

.Gold prices settled higher by 1.02% at Rs143,232, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar as investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with Chair Kevin Warsh reiterating the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. Meanwhile, renewed military action between the United States and Iran heightened safe-haven demand after the U.S. launched strikes on multiple IRGC targets following Iranian missile attacks on U.S. troops in Jordan. Despite gold's appeal during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks, expectations that interest rates could remain elevated continue to limit upside momentum. Markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a September rate hike, down from nearly 81% before the Fed meeting, according to CME FedWatch. On the physical market front, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined more than 5% month-on-month to 50.679 tonnes in June, indicating softer import demand. India's physical market remained subdued as higher domestic prices discouraged buyers, with dealer discounts widening to $56 per ounce, the largest in seven weeks. However, buying interest in China improved, with gold trading at premiums of $3-$6 per ounce over global spot prices. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.77% to 9,464 tonnes at the end of June. The World Gold Council reported that India's June-quarter net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes, while total gold demand declined 6% to 131.4 tonnes, reflecting weaker jewellery consumption despite resilient investment demand following higher import tariffs. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 26.21% to 2,134 contracts while prices advanced sharply. Gold is holding immediate support at Rs142,020, with a break below potentially extending losses toward Rs140,810. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs143,920, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a rally towards Rs144,610, keeping the near-term bias cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140810-144610.

* Gold climbed as weaker US dollar provided support, while investors assessed Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged.

* Traders see 65% chance of September rate hike, per FedWatch

* India's net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tons in the June quarter, the lowest quarterly level since September 2020.

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 1.14% at Rs219,967, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged while closely monitoring escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Although the Fed maintained its benchmark rate, three FOMC members dissented in favor of an immediate rate hike, with Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing that the pause should not be interpreted as reduced commitment to tackling inflation. Markets now assign a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, up from 56% a day earlier, while expectations for a larger 50-basis-point increase have largely faded. Safe-haven sentiment also strengthened after the United States launched fresh strikes against Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies and renewed inflationary pressures. Economic data presented a mixed outlook for precious metals. The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.5% in Q2 2026, slowing from 2.1% in the previous quarter and missing market expectations. Meanwhile, the PCE price index declined 0.1% month-on-month in June, with goods prices falling 0.6% and services inflation easing to 0.1%, indicating moderating inflation. Initial jobless claims increased to 197,000, remaining below expectations and highlighting continued labor market resilience. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 1.7% to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June. In India, silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year by value and 94% by volume to just 33 tonnes in May after the government tightened import restrictions and raised import duties to 15%, significantly reducing inflows. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.09% to 12,759 contracts alongside higher prices, reflecting improving market participation. Silver is holding immediate support at Rs216,720, with a break below likely to test Rs213,475. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs221,805, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs223,645, keeping the near-term technical outlook constructive.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 213475-223645.

* Silver rose amid softer U.S. dollar lent support; investors weighed the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

* The US economy expanded an annualized 1.5% in Q2 2026, below 2.1% in Q1 and forecasts of 2.1% the advance estimate

* Fed’s Warsh emphasized that the decision to keep rates steady should not be viewed as a sign of policy inertia.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled 0.95% lower at Rs8,037, as reports of diplomatic talks between Oman and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate supply disruption concerns despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Profit booking also emerged after recent gains, although the downside remained limited by a sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial crude oil inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels in the week ended July 24, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel draw and marking the lowest inventory level since 2018. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also declined by 771,000 barrels to 18.6 million barrels, the lowest since 2014, while refinery utilization increased to 97.2%, reflecting robust refining activity. Supply-side developments remained mixed. OPEC+ is expected to pause further production increases for three months from October after completing its scheduled output restoration. However, the group has already approved an additional 188,000 barrels per day increase from August, following similar quota hikes in June and July. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's key Black Sea export terminal suspended tanker loadings after Ukrainian drone attacks, while security risks in the Red Sea persisted as tankers carrying Saudi crude altered shipping routes following Houthi threats. In the United States, gasoline inventories edged up by 7,000 barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.1 million barrels, indicating adequate fuel supplies despite strong refinery demand. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.63% to 9,246 contracts while prices declined, reflecting the emergence of new short positions. Crude oil is holding immediate support at Rs7,902, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward Rs7,768. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs8,207, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains towards Rs8,378, depending on geopolitical developments and inventory trends.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7768-8378.

* Crude oil dropped amid reports of talks between Oman and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz

* U.S. commercial oil inventory drew more than expected last week as refineries stepped up processing and exports climbed.

* Crude inventories, fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels, the EIA said, the lowest level since 2018.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.68% higher at Rs264.6, supported by a smaller-than-expected U.S. storage build and improved demand forecasts. However, gains remained capped by record domestic production, lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows, and comfortable inventory levels. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas storage increased by 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the week ended July 24, below market expectations of a 35 bcf injection. Total working gas in storage rose to 3.084 trillion cubic feet, standing 1% below year-ago levels but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating that supply conditions remain adequate despite stronger seasonal demand. Weather forecasts continued to provide underlying support, with above-normal temperatures expected through August 13, boosting electricity demand for air conditioning and increasing gas consumption by power utilities. Average gas demand across the Lower 48 states, including exports, is projected to rise from 110.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 112.7 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, average gas production has increased to 110.6 bcfd so far in July, matching the record monthly high reached in December 2025. LNG export flows eased to 17.2 bcfd due to maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility, compared with 17.4 bcfd in June and a record 18.8 bcfd in April. Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts U.S. dry gas production to average 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are expected to increase to 17.4 bcfd and 18.6 bcfd, respectively. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.21% to 52,885 contracts alongside higher prices, reflecting renewed buying interest. Natural gas is holding immediate support at Rs259.5, with a break below likely to test Rs254.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs267.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs271.1, keeping the near-term outlook cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 254.5-271.1.

* Natural gas edged up on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more demand than previously expected.

* EIA says utilities add 28 bcf of gas to storage, below analysts' forecast of 35 bcf

* LSEG says July Lower 48 gas output averages record 110.7 bcfd

Copper

Copper prices settled 1.19% higher at Rs1,338.5, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with tightening inventories outside the United States and improving demand from China. The softer dollar enhanced the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities, while persistent supply concerns continued to underpin market sentiment. Inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) declined by 6,900 tonnes to 255,400 tonnes, the lowest level since February, resulting in the cash copper contract trading at a premium of more than $30 per tonne over the three-month contract, reflecting tight near-term availability. In China, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories remained below 70,000 tonnes, their lowest level since February 2024, while COMEX inventories climbed to a record 644,465 tonnes as shipments continued ahead of potential U.S. import tariffs. Supply developments remained mixed across major producing regions. Chilean miner Antofagasta resumed operations at its Los Pelambres mine after weather-related disruptions and maintained its full-year production guidance. Chile also raised its average 2026 copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound, up from $5.46 per pound previously. However, production remained weak, with Codelco output declining 18.3% year-on-year to 106,300 tonnes, Escondida production falling 17.6% to 108,800 tonnes, and Collahuasi output dropping 19.3% to 31,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported a 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, while China's refined copper imports reached 281,307 tonnes in June, the highest level in nine months, supported by strong domestic demand and lower local supply. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.51% to 11,668 contracts alongside higher prices, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Copper is holding immediate support at Rs1,327.7, with a break below likely to test Rs1,316.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs1,345.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs1,351.8, maintaining a positive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1316.8-1351.8.

* Copper gains supported a weaker dollar, after the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates steady.

* Dwindling inventories, supply concerns and demand from China also offered support for copper.

* LME copper stocks fell by 6,900 tons to 255,400 tons, the lowest since February.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 1.14% higher at Rs380.8, supported by expectations of lower mine and smelter output in China, tightening near-term supply conditions, and encouraging signs from the manufacturing sector. Market sentiment strengthened after a zinc mine in Southwest China announced production adjustments that are expected to reduce zinc concentrate output by approximately 1,000 tonnes in August. Additionally, a major zinc smelter in Central China plans routine maintenance during August, likely affecting production by 1,000–1,500 tonnes, further tightening concentrate availability and supporting prices. Global supply developments remained mixed despite higher Chinese production. China's refined zinc output increased 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, while zinc metal production also rose 9.4% year-on-year. However, inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 0.8%, reflecting healthy downstream demand. Among major producers, Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes in the first half of 2026, down 21% year-on-year, although it maintained its full-year production guidance of 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden's zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG reported a 1% year-on-year decline to 55,500 tonnes in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, indicating improving market balance. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest increasing 3.56% to 2,619 contracts alongside higher prices, reflecting strengthening bullish participation. Zinc is holding immediate support at Rs377.9, with a break below likely to test Rs375.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs382.6, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs384.5, maintaining a constructive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 375.1-384.5.

* Zinc gains as China's southwest zinc mine to cut production by 1,000 tonnes in August

* Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes for H1 2026, down 99,600 tonnes, or 21%, year on year.

* Ivanhoe Mines maintains 2026 Kipushi zinc production guidance at 240,000-290,000 tonnes

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.62% higher at Rs340.35, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which dampened expectations for the restart of Middle Eastern aluminium smelters and reinforced concerns over global supply availability. Additional support came from a weaker U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, despite three FOMC members voting in favor of a rate hike. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to its 2% inflation target, while expectations for a September rate hike moderated, improving sentiment across industrial metals. Supply fundamentals remained supportive despite some easing factors. Emirates Global Aluminium resumed operations at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage, helping improve alumina availability. However, aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses declined to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, highlighting tight exchange supplies. Alcoa also lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf region output falling by nearly one-third. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japan's major ports dropped 7.8% to 220,300 tonnes, reflecting improving regional demand. China continued to play a significant role in global supply. The country exported a record 711,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in June, up 12.5% from May, while first-half exports increased 16.3% year-on-year to 3.4 million tonnes. At the same time, China's primary aluminium production rose 4.7% to 3.98 million tonnes, while imports declined 17.4%, reflecting weaker import arbitrage. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.55% to 4,006 contracts alongside higher prices. Aluminium is holding immediate support at Rs338.2, with a break below likely to test Rs336.0. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs342.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs344.0, maintaining a cautiously positive near-term technical outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 336-344.

* Aluminium gains as tensions between the US and Iran flared up again, dampening expectations for the restart of Middle Eastern smelters.

* Stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell further to 267,800, the lowest level seen this century.

* Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 3.07% higher at Rs20,856, driven by tight spot supplies and growing concerns over the impact of uneven monsoon rains and a potential El Niño event on the newly sown crop. Market sentiment remained bullish as reduced carry-forward stocks and deficient rainfall during the early crop development stage raised fears of lower production. Spot prices also strengthened amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, with buyers actively covering immediate requirements. Although timely pre-monsoon showers have supported initial sowing, traders remain cautious as rainfall distribution over the coming weeks will be crucial for crop development and yield prospects. Despite the strong rally, gains were partially capped by improving monsoon activity across major turmeric-growing regions during the past week, which has encouraged sowing and eased some concerns over the upcoming crop. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, supported by attractive market prices. However, overall supply remains structurally tight as carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Increased selling by farmers during the peak harvest period has provided some supply to the market, while demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers continues to support premium-quality stocks. India's turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May, while cumulative exports during April-May remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Shipments to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy recorded strong growth, reflecting healthy overseas demand. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 0.32% to 29,230 contracts while prices advanced sharply. Turmeric is holding immediate support at Rs19,928, with a break below likely to test Rs19,002. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,380, and a sustained move above this level could extend the rally toward Rs21,906, keeping the near-term technical outlook firmly positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19002-21906.

* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20028.75 Rupees gained by 0.51 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.47% lower at Rs20,995, pressured by aggressive farmer selling as producers liquidated stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities. Favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating market arrivals and increasing near-term supplies. The steady build-up of NCDEX warehouse stocks further reduced the urgency for spot purchases, while large industrial spice processors continued to avoid bulk buying, preferring hand-to-mouth procurement in anticipation of lower prices. As a result, market sentiment remained subdued despite underlying supply concerns. However, the downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality bold jeera seeds. Although overall crop availability remains adequate, export-grade, high-purity stocks are declining faster than expected as arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan continue to taper. Quality concerns have also emerged following blight disease in key growing regions of Gujarat, affecting both production quality and harvestable volumes. Current estimates suggest India's jeera production for the season could decline to 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, lower production expectations in China due to adverse weather have also supported sentiment, although improving crop prospects in Turkey and Syria have weighed on Indian export competitiveness. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative April-May exports fell 22% to 33,431 tonnes. Despite the overall decline, exports to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded strong growth, highlighting resilient demand from emerging markets. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.09% to 8,322 contracts alongside lower prices. Jeera is holding immediate support at Rs20,860, with a break below likely to test Rs20,720. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs21,150, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery towards Rs21,300, although near-term sentiment remains cautious.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20720-21300.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India's jeera exports declined sharply by 26% YoY to 17,177 tonnes in May-2026, compared with 23,206 tonnes in May-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20789.95 Rupees dropped by -0.18 percent.