U.S. Soybean Outlook 2025/26: Lower Exports, Higher Crush, Stable Prices by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean outlook reflects slightly lower supplies and reduced exports, but a rise in domestic crush and ending stocks. The U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.34 billion bushels, with a trend yield and lower acreage. Despite a slight reduction in exports, soybean crush will increase to 2.49 billion bushels, driven by higher domestic demand for soybean meal and oil. Global soybean production is up, particularly in Brazil, while U.S. exports are expected to decline. Despite global growth in oilseed production, the soybean market faces competition from rapeseed and sunflowerseed. Prices are expected to edge up for both soybeans and soybean products.
Key Highlights
* U.S. soybean crop forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 1%.
* U.S. soybean crush projected at 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million.
* U.S. soybean exports down by 35 million bushels to 1.815 billion.
* U.S. soybean meal exports forecast at 18 million short tons.
* Global soybean production rises 1%, with Brazil reaching 175 million tons.
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean outlook presents a mixed picture for the agricultural sector, with slightly lower supplies, higher domestic crush, and reduced exports. U.S. soybean production is projected to drop to 4.34 billion bushels, due to a combination of lower acreage and trend yield. Despite a small reduction in overall soybean supplies, domestic use is forecast to increase.
One of the most notable trends for the year is a significant boost in U.S. soybean crush, which is expected to rise by 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels. This increase is driven by higher domestic demand for soybean meal, with a projected 2% rise in soybean meal disappearance, mainly due to growing pork and poultry production. In addition, the U.S. soybean oil market will see increased domestic use, with soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock expected to rise to 13.9 billion pounds.
While the U.S. faces lower soybean exports, which are forecast to fall by 35 million bushels to 1.815 billion, global production increases from South American countries like Brazil, where production is expected to reach a record 175 million tons, shifting export markets. Global soybean trade is growing, with Brazil, Argentina, and other South American nations capturing a larger share of the global export market.
Global oilseed production is projected to increase by 2%, with the U.S. losing market share. Despite this, global soybean meal exports are forecast to rise, particularly from the U.S. and Argentina, highlighting soybean's continued importance in the global feed market.
Finally,
the 2025/26 soybean outlook shows strong domestic demand but a challenging export environment for U.S. soybeans. The industry will need to navigate competition from global producers to maintain market share.
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