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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.89% to settle at 1,35,447, largely on profit booking after an exceptional rally, though the metal remains on track for its strongest annual performance in over four decades. Gold has surged nearly 70% this year, with momentum accelerating after the global tariff rollout by U.S. President Donald Trump, and has been underpinned by persistent geopolitical risks, multiple U.S. rate cuts, strong central bank buying, and sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers remain inclined toward further easing if inflation continues to cool, although divisions persist regarding the timing and scale of future rate cuts. Ongoing uncertainty around the Russia–Ukraine conflict, renewed tensions in the Middle East, and frictions between the U.S. and Venezuela continued to support safe-haven demand. Physical market dynamics were mixed. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 101.5% month-on-month in November to 16.16 tonnes, reflecting improved buying interest. In contrast, Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $61 per ounce, the highest in over six months, as elevated prices dampened retail demand. Chinese discounts narrowed sharply, while other Asian hubs traded at modest premiums or small discounts. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.67% to 15,721 alongside a 1,219 price decline. Gold has immediate support at 1,34,735, below which it could test 1,34,030. Resistance is seen at 1,36,250, and a move above may open the path toward 1,37,060.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134030-137060.

* Gold prices slipped on profit booking, but remained on track for its strongest annual performance in more than four decades.

* Bullion has surged 65% this year, a rally that accelerated in late April following President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout.

* Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, showed that most officials would support rate cuts if inflation continues to fall.

Silver

Silver prices corrected sharply, settling down by 6.1% at 2,35,701 as investors booked profits toward year-end after an extraordinary rally. Despite the decline, silver has surged more than 180% in 2025, decisively outperforming gold and marking its strongest annual performance on record. The metal crossed several historic milestones during the year, supported by its inclusion as a critical mineral in the US, persistent supply tightness, chronically low inventories, and robust industrial as well as investment demand. Ongoing geopolitical risks also remained in focus, with the US signaling possible further action against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and announcing operations in Venezuela, adding to near-term volatility. Fundamental support continues to stem from constrained global supply. Chinese silver inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade after record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October, while stocks linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at their weakest since 2015. Liquidity outside China remains tight, with elevated borrowing costs in London despite strong inflows. The CME Group further raised margin requirements for March 2026 silver futures to about $30,000, following earlier hikes, in an effort to cool speculative activity after repeated record highs. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.02% to 13,244 alongside a steep price decline of 15,311. Silver has immediate support at 2,31,290, below which prices may test 2,26,875. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,41,060, and a move above this level could open the path toward 2,46,415.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 226875-246415.

* Silver dropped more than 5% as investors locked in year-end profits.

* Prices has surged more than 180% in 2025, dramatically outperforming gold and positioning 2025 as its strongest year on record.

* Silver crossed several historic milestones, buoyed by its designation as a critical mineral in the US.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices eased marginally, settling down by 0.42% at 5,213, as pressure from a modest build in US inventories outweighed prevailing geopolitical risk premiums. The downside, however, remained limited amid fading prospects of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and persistent geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and South America. Supply dynamics also stayed in focus, with output from the five North Sea grades underpinning dated Brent expected to average 575,000 barrels per day in February, up from 565,000 bpd in January. Market participants are widely anticipating that OPEC+ will reaffirm its pause on further production increases when it meets on January 4, reflecting mounting evidence of a global oil oversupply. Meanwhile, supply risks increased after Venezuela began shutting oil wells due to a partial US blockade that constrained exports and filled domestic storage. On the data front, the EIA reported a 405,000-barrel rise in US crude inventories to 424.8 million barrels for the week ended December 19, defying expectations of a 2.4 million-barrel draw. Stocks at Cushing rose by 707,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories climbed 2.86 million barrels and distillates rose by 202,000 barrels. Net US crude imports increased sharply by 609,000 bpd.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.42% to 17,376 alongside a price decline of 22. Crude oil has support at 5,184, below which prices may test 5,155. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,261, and a move above this level could push prices toward 5,309.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5155-5309.

* Crude oil edged lower as U.S. data showed a modest build in crude oil inventories.

* Venezuela began shutting oil wells due to a partial US blockade that has constrained exports and caused domestic storage tanks to fill.

* Supply of the five North Sea crude oil grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark will average about 575,000 bpd in February

Natural gas

Natural gas prices corrected sharply, settling down by 5.76% at 337.3, as warmer weather forecasts for the first half of January pressured near-term demand expectations. Forecasts indicate comparatively milder conditions through early January, prompting profit-taking despite intermittent cold spells. Meteorological data showed Heating Degree Days rising from 412 to 439, above the near-normal level of 394, highlighting pockets of colder weather, but these were insufficient to offset broader warming trends priced into the market. Fundamentals remain mixed. Record US gas flows to LNG export facilities provided underlying support, with average deliveries to eight major LNG plants rising to 18.5 bcfd in December, surpassing November’s record of 18.2 bcfd. On the supply-demand balance, the EIA reported a larger-than-normal storage withdrawal of 166 bcf for the week ended December 19, compared with 98 bcf last year and a five-year average of 110 bcf. Total storage fell to 3,413 bcf, now 3.6% below last year and marginally below the five-year average. However, elevated production continues to cap rallies, with lower-48 output averaging a record 110.1 bcfd in December. LSEG projects total US gas demand, including exports, to edge up from 137.1 bcfd to 138 bcfd next week. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest jumping 25.82% to 25,765 alongside a 20.6 price decline. Support is seen at 327.6, with further downside toward 317.8. Resistance stands at 353.6, and a breakout above this level could open the door to 369.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 317.8-369.8.

* Natural gas prices dropped as weather forecasts turn warmer for the first half of January.

* Meteorologists forecast a drop in temperatures nationwide through January 13.

* Projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, would edge higher from 137.1 bcfd to 138 bcfd next week.

Copper

Copper prices corrected sharply, settling down by 3.88% at 1,285.5, as a stronger US dollar and profit-taking in thin year-end liquidity weighed on the market after the metal hit a record high earlier in the week. The retreat came despite firm physical indicators, with the Yangshan copper premium ending the year around $51 per ton, close to last week’s three-month high of $55, signalling relatively resilient Chinese demand conditions. Fundamentals remain mixed. Supply-side risks continue to dominate sentiment after Chile’s copper output fell 7.18% year-on-year in November to 451,815 tonnes, while disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, accounting for about 3% of global supply, added to concerns. Labour unrest in Chile and Peru further heightened uncertainty. At the same time, expectations of potential US tariffs under President Trump encouraged heavy shipments into US warehouses, tightening availability in traditional consuming regions. This was reflected in rising stocks at Comex warehouses, even as Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories jumped 30.1% week-on-week, tempering near-term bullishness. On the demand front, China’s copper imports for January–November were down only 3% year-on-year, underscoring better-than-expected consumption, supported by electrification, renewable energy, and infrastructure spending.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.11% to 13,422 alongside a 51.85 price decline. Support is seen at 1,255.5, with a further test at 1,225.3 if broken. Resistance is placed at 1,321.4, and a move above this could open the path toward 1,357.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1225.3-1357.1.

* Copper prices fell as the dollar strengthened and some investors took profit.

* The Yangshan copper premium is finishing the year at $51 a ton, after hitting a three-month high of $55 last week.

* Copper output in Chile, fell 7.18% year-on-year in November to 451,815 metric tons, statistics agency INE said.

Zinc

Zinc prices eased modestly, settling down by 0.44% at 307.65, as profit booking emerged after a recent rally driven by speculative buying on concerns over tightening supply. The correction came despite fresh indications of mine-side constraints in China, where a central China zinc mine is set to undergo routine maintenance, resulting in fewer production days, while another mine in southwest China has largely completed its annual production target and is scheduled for maintenance, potentially reducing zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes in metal content. Zinc concentrate production is also expected to decline on a month-on-month basis. However, upside momentum remained capped by weak downstream signals from China. Property investment and property sales by floor area continued to deteriorate, reviving demand concerns. In addition, China’s refined zinc output rose sharply, with November production up 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 tonnes, underscoring ample smelter supply despite mine-side disruptions. At the global level, refined zinc metal production is projected to rise 2.7% to 13.8 million tonnes in 2025. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market deficit narrowing to 600 tonnes in October, while the first ten months of 2025 recorded a surplus of 76,000 tonnes, contrasting with a marginal surplus last year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, as open interest declined 1.27% to 5,204 alongside a 1.35 price drop. Support is placed at 305.9, below which prices may test 303.9. Resistance is seen at 309.3, and a break above could lead to a retest of 310.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 303.9-310.7.

* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid speculative buying on worries about tighter supply.

* Pressure also seen dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 4.3% from December 26.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower, settling down by 0.52% at 296.95, as profit booking set in despite persistent concerns over tight global supply. Sentiment was shaped by China’s renewed emphasis on preventing overcapacity in metal production, aimed at curbing deflationary pressures on manufacturers. While this policy stance supports medium-term price stability, near-term cues remained mixed. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.0% from December 26, indicating some easing of immediate supply tightness. Globally, primary aluminium output increased marginally, with November production up 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. In China, aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tonnes in November, while cumulative output for the first eleven months reached 41.17 million tonnes, also up 2.5%. However, the country is set to breach its 45 million tonne output cap this year, forcing smelters to restrain output growth in 2026. This has led producers to prioritise domestic sales, contributing to a 9.2% year-on-year drop in aluminium exports in November.  Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.49% to 4,438 alongside a 1.55 price decline. Support is seen at 295.2, below which prices may test 293.3, while resistance stands at 298.4, with a move above opening the door to 299.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 293.3-299.7.

* Aluminium prices dropped on profit booking amid growing concerns of low supply.

* Global primary aluminium output in November rose 0.5% year on year to 6.086 million tonnes – IAI

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.0% from December 26.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher, settling up by 0.43% at 17,316, supported by below-normal arrivals and firm domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remained positive as both farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their holdings, providing a strong base ahead of new crop arrivals. Weather-related disruptions have impacted yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, where unseasonal rains caused waterlogging and disease issues, affecting nearly 15% of the area in some pockets. Despite localized yield losses of 15–20%, overall supply growth is expected to remain moderate due to lower carry-forward stocks. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, around 4% higher year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. Maharashtra’s production is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags, while other key states together may contribute around 40 lakh bags. Quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risks persist in low-lying areas, though export-grade supply is supported by increasing IPM cultivation. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply by 48.05%, highlighting tighter availability. Spot prices in Nizamabad ended marginally higher at 16,010.15. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.49% to 14,810 alongside a 74 price gain. Turmeric has support at 17,142, with downside risk toward 16,968 if breached. Resistance is seen at 17,470, and a move above could test 17,624.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16968-17624.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16010.15 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased marginally, settling down by 0.22% at 22,335, pressured by comfortable near-term supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate existing stocks. Market sentiment remained cautious as the retail demand season has largely concluded and overseas buying continues to be price-sensitive, with most export requirements being met from available inventories. Spot prices in Unjha, the key benchmark market, also declined by 0.23% to 22,126.35, reflecting low arrivals and selective buying for good-quality cumin. However, the downside remained limited due to supply-side concerns. As of 29 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat stood at 3.99 lakh hectares, down sharply by 14.2% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall delayed field preparation, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Low arrivals at Unjha and logistical disruptions across India and the Middle East have further tightened availability. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output seen at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Global supplies are also constrained due to weather-related production declines in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. GST reduction to 5% is expected to support FMCG demand and exports over time, though near-term export momentum remains weak. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.27% to 4,422 alongside a 50 price decline. Jeera has support at 22,100, below which prices may test 21,870. Resistance is placed at 22,680, and a move above could open the path toward 23,030.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21870-23030.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22126.35 Rupees dropped by -0.23 percent.

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