Aviation Sector Update : Air traffic rises MoM in Jan’26; IndiGo share dips YoY By Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Air traffic improves MoM in Jan’26; IndiGo’s share declines YoY
* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic increased ~7% MoM in Jan’26 to 15.3m (up 4% YoY). Passenger growth increased for IndiGo, Air India (AI), Akasa, and SpiceJet on a YoY basis.
* Average domestic Passenger Load Factor (PLF) decreased 400bp MoM in Jan’26. PLF declined MoM for all airlines. On-Time Performance (OTP) increased 1,850bp MoM (low base MoM due to IndiGo’s operational crisis) for airlines; the domestic average was 64.8% in Jan’26. The cancellation rate decreased ~10bp to 1.44% in Jan’26.
* IndiGo’s market share declined following the surrender of flight slots due to FDTL implementation. Its domestic market share stood at 63.6% in Jan’26 (vs 59.6%/65.2% MoM/YoY)
India's domestic air PAX and market share
* India's domestic air PAX increased 7% MoM (increased 4% YoY) to 15.3m in Jan’26. Domestic PAX stood at 9.7m for IndiGo (up 2% YoY), 4m for the AI group (up 7% YoY), 0.7m for Akasa (up 6% YoY), and 0.6m for SpiceJet (up 27% YoY).
* Domestic market share stood at 63.6% for IndiGo (down 150bp YoY), 26.5% for the AI group (up 70bp YoY), 4.8% for Akasa (up 10bp YoY), and 3.9% for SpiceJet (up 70bp YoY)
Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP
* Domestic PLF stood at 80.7% in Jan’26 (84.7% in Dec’25 and 77.5% in Jan’25). PLF stood at 87.7% for IndiGo (down 210bp YoY), 86.5% for the AI group (up 210bp YoY), 93.2% for Akasa (down 50bp YoY), and 85.9% for SpiceJet (down 120bp YoY).
* The average OTP for domestic airlines across the top 10 airports stood at 64.8%. OTP stood at 70.9% for IndiGo, 69.6% for the AI group, 59.8% for Akasa, and 56.8% for SpiceJet.
Other highlights
* The Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) price for Mar’26 stood at INR96,638/klit (up 1%/6% YoY/ MoM). For 4QFY26, the price stood at INR93,452/klit (down 3% QoQ and remained flat YoY).
* Brent crude averaged ~USD69.2/bbl in Feb’26. It rose to USD76.3/bbl on 2nd Mar’26, amid war-related tensions in the Middle East.
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