IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.52% to settle at 158,519 as stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data boosted Treasury yields and reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.49% after ADP data showed private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in May, surpassing market expectations and marking the strongest gain since January 2025. Additionally, JOLTS data revealed that job openings rose to their highest level since November 2024, highlighting continued resilience in the U.S. labor market. As a result, markets are now pricing in an 85% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end. On the demand side, Swiss gold exports fell 20% in April due to weaker shipments to the UK and China, although exports to India and Hong Kong improved. Central bank demand remains a major supportive factor, with Goldman Sachs raising its estimate for average central bank purchases to around 60 tonnes per month through 2026. Despite some downward revisions in long-term price forecasts by JPMorgan and Commerzbank, both institutions continue to expect structurally strong demand for gold over the coming years. Physical demand remained mixed across key consuming regions. Indian buyers stayed cautious due to elevated prices and import duties, leading to wider discounts, while premiums in China narrowed amid subdued sentiment. However, investment demand in India remained robust, rising 52% year-on-year during the March quarter and surpassing jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Globally, gold demand increased 2% in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong investment inflows and steady central bank purchases. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.27% to 8,240 contracts while prices declined sharply. Gold has immediate support at 157,850, with a break below this level likely to test 157,175. On the upside, resistance is seen at 159,470, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 160,415.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 157175-160415.

*  Gold dropped as the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed further to 4.49% after the ADP report.

*  ADP report showed that the private sector added 122K jobs in May, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since January 2025.

*  US job openings in April rose to their highest level since November 2024, further highlighting the resilience of labor demand.

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 1.41% to settle at 262,958, pressured by a stronger US dollar and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer. The dollar index strengthened to 99.4, its highest level in nearly two months, after a series of robust US labor market indicators reinforced confidence in the economy. Data showed job openings surged in April to their highest level in almost two years, while layoffs declined, highlighting continued resilience in employment conditions. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for further guidance on the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Additionally, elevated oil prices driven by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations have fueled inflation concerns, further supporting expectations of a restrictive policy stance. Fundamental developments in the silver market remained mixed. India, the world's largest silver consumer, tightened import regulations by placing silver grains, powders, bars, and most semi-manufactured forms under the restricted category, requiring prior authorization from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade. The move aims to curb imports and reduce pressure on the rupee after the country spent a record $12 billion on silver imports during FY2025/26. While lower Indian imports could weigh on global demand, tighter domestic supplies may increase local premiums. In contrast, China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic sector ahead of tax policy changes. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults edged down 0.1% to 27,454 tonnes at the end of April. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 8.25% to 11,492 contracts while prices declined significantly. Immediate support is seen at 260,895, with further downside potential toward 258,830. Resistance is placed at 266,260, and a breakout above this level could trigger a move toward 269,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 258830-269560.

* Silver prices fell as dollar index strengthened further to 99.4, reaching the highest level in about two months

* Stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforced expectations that Fed may keep interest rates elevated for an extended period.

* Investors are now focused on Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 3.24% to settle at 9,240, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over tightening global supplies. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations continued to add a significant risk premium to the market. Hostilities intensified after Iranian attacks on Kuwait reportedly damaged airport infrastructure and injured dozens, while US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz further heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy flows. With diplomatic efforts showing limited progress, traders remained focused on supply risks from one of the world's most strategically important oil transit routes. Fundamental support also came from tightening inventory conditions. According to the latest data, US crude oil inventories declined by 7.97 million barrels during the week ended May 29, significantly exceeding market expectations for a 4 million barrel draw and marking the largest decline since February. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also fell, indicating continued strength in crude demand. However, gasoline inventories increased by 3.36 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 1.50 million barrels, reflecting mixed signals from the refined products market. Net US crude imports also declined during the week, further contributing to inventory reductions. The International Energy Agency warned that global oil inventories could fall to critically low levels ahead of the peak summer demand season if current stock draws persist. Meanwhile, China is expected to rely more heavily on its record crude inventories as weak fuel demand continues to weigh on refinery margins and import requirements. OPEC also revised lower its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, although it maintained a more optimistic outlook for 2027 demand recovery. Technically, the market remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 17.97% to 12,952 contracts alongside the sharp price gain. Immediate support is seen at 9,088, with further downside protection near 8,935. Resistance is positioned at 9,342, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 9,443.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8935-9443.

* Crude oil rose as ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed conflict in the Middle East.

* Gulf hostilities flared again as Iranian attacks on Kuwait damaged its airport and injured dozens

* IEA sees possibility of critically low stockpiles ahead of peak summer demand

Natural gas

Natural gas prices advanced by 2.48% to settle at 309.9, supported by lower domestic production levels, expectations of stronger cooling demand, and short-covering activity in the futures market. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May, providing fundamental support to prices. In addition, weather forecasts indicating mostly above-normal temperatures through mid-June are expected to increase electricity demand for air conditioning, leading to higher natural gas consumption by power generators. Further support came from storage data that showed a slightly tighter-than-expected inventory build. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 22, below market expectations of a 95-bcf increase. The build was also lower than last year's increase of 104 bcf and below the five-year average injection of 97 bcf for the same period. Despite the smaller build, overall storage levels remain relatively comfortable, standing more than 6% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, feedgas deliveries to major LNG export terminals declined from 17.1 bcfd in May to around 16.0 bcfd in early June due to seasonal maintenance at several facilities. Lower LNG export demand has increased gas availability in the domestic market, partially offsetting the bullish impact of reduced production and warmer weather forecasts. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects natural gas production to reach record highs over the next two years, rising from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115.0 bcfd in 2027. Demand is expected to ease slightly in 2026 before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 9.01% to 17,782 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 303.7, followed by 297.6. Resistance is placed at 313.9, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 318.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297.6-318.

* Natural gas gained as gas production averaged 108.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May.

* Support also seen amid weather forecasts pointing to mostly above-normal temperatures through June 17.

* Trump says gas prices in US would come down when Iran war ends

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.83% to settle at 1,367.9 as investors booked profits following recent gains, while uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. copper tariffs continued to influence market sentiment. Despite the price correction, losses remained limited due to tightening nearby supply conditions on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The narrowing LME cash-to-three-month copper discount and rising cancelled warrants indicated increasing metal withdrawals, highlighting concerns over available inventories and supply dislocations between the LME and Comex markets. Market sentiment also received support from China, where the central bank encouraged commercial banks to increase lending activity, reinforcing expectations of additional economic support measures. Furthermore, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 3.8% from the previous week, signaling healthy consumption and tighter domestic supplies. China's copper demand remains underpinned by strong investment in power infrastructure, with power grid spending rising sharply during the first quarter of 2026. The country also reported a recovery in unwrought copper imports during April, reaching a seven-month high despite record levels of domestic refined copper production. Supply-side concerns continue to provide underlying support. Sulfur and sulfuric acid shortages in Chile have forced refiners to reduce operating rates, while production challenges at major mines including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula are expected to limit concentrate availability. Chile’s copper production has already declined compared to last year, adding to concerns over future supply growth. Although the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus during 2026 and 2027, several major financial institutions remain bullish on prices. Goldman Sachs and Citi have both raised their copper price forecasts, citing weaker mine supply growth, stronger infrastructure demand, and the potential impact of U.S. trade policies. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 1.77% to 17,291 contracts while prices moved lower. Copper has immediate support at 1,360.2, with further downside potential toward 1,352.5. Resistance is seen at 1,381.4, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 1,394.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1352.5-1394.9.

* Copper slipped as investors locked in profit, while uncertainty around U.S. tariff on the metal limited losses.

* However, signs of tighter nearby supply on the LME supported sentiment

* Uncertainty over U.S. copper tariffs as a June 30 deadline approaches.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower by 0.08% to settle at 373.3 as a stronger U.S. dollar and robust U.S. economic data weighed on base metals sentiment. The dollar index climbed to 99.4, its highest level in nearly two months, after stronger-than-expected labor market indicators reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. The ADP employment report showed private sector hiring increased by 122,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations and reducing the likelihood of near-term interest rate cuts, which pressured industrial metals. Despite the modest decline, downside in zinc remained limited due to growing concerns over supply disruptions. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. The disruption came shortly after an explosion affected operations at Glencore-owned Kazzinc facilities in Kazakhstan, further tightening supply expectations. These incidents add to an already constrained market, with the International Lead and Zinc Study Group forecasting a refined zinc deficit of 19,000 tons this year. Additionally, LME zinc inventories remain historically low at 111,250 tons, representing less than three days of global consumption. However, gains were capped by expectations of improving mine supply. Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter, while Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% in the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also increased slightly, indicating adequate short-term availability in China. The global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, reflecting improving supply-demand balance. Goldman Sachs expects a small zinc surplus in 2026 but forecasts tighter market conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues to expand at a steady pace. Technically, zinc remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 0.14% to 2,916 contracts while prices slipped lower. Immediate support is seen at 371.8, with further downside potential toward 370.1. Resistance is placed at 375.9, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 378.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 370.1-378.3.

* Zinc dropped as stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings reading weighed on metals.

* Pressure seen on prices as the dollar index strengthened further to 99.4, reaching the highest level in about two months.

* However downside seen limited supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 0.44% to settle at 393 as traders booked profits following recent gains, although underlying supply concerns continued to provide support to the market. Global aluminium sentiment remained supported by tightening physical availability, with LME aluminium inventories falling to 335,450 tons, their lowest level in nearly four years. The cash LME aluminium contract continued to trade at a substantial premium to the three-month contract, reflecting ongoing tightness in nearby supplies and highlighting concerns about immediate metal availability. Supply disruptions remain a major factor supporting prices. Emirates Global Aluminium’s flagship smelter is expected to require up to a year to return to full production capacity, while operations at Bahrain’s ALBA smelter remain partially suspended. In addition, stricter controls on bauxite exports from Guinea have raised concerns over raw material availability for global aluminium producers. The impact of the Iran conflict has also weighed heavily on Gulf production, with primary aluminium output in the region falling sharply during April to its lowest level in more than a decade. Demand indicators remained relatively supportive. China's industrial profits expanded at the fastest pace since November 2023, reinforcing expectations for steady industrial activity. Chinese imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March, while exports surged 15% in April, the highest level in at least a year. Strong export demand has been supported by tighter overseas supplies and elevated international prices. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japanese ports fell by 10.8% month-on-month, indicating healthy regional demand. Despite supportive supply fundamentals, abundant Chinese production continues to limit upside potential. China’s aluminium output increased 3.1% year-on-year in April and remained near record levels due to favorable production margins. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 6.79% to 4,094 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 390.7, followed by 388.2. Resistance is placed at 396.4, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 399.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 388.2-399.6.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the market continued to grapple with supply disruptions.

* LME inventories dwindled to 335,450 tons, the lowest in almost four years.

* EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA remain partially suspended.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 0.72% to settle at 15,730, supported by tight near-term supplies and strong demand for premium-quality stocks. Arrivals in major producing markets across Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak marketing season, creating an immediate supply squeeze. Quality concerns linked to moisture-related damage and rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas have reduced the availability of export-grade and double-polished turmeric. In key markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists have been holding back supplies in anticipation of higher prices, while premium Salem Fali varieties continue to command significant premiums in major trading centers. Market sentiment also received support from lower carry-forward inventories, which are estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags during the previous season. Additional support has emerged from growing export demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and active procurement inquiries from Bangladesh, particularly for finger-variety turmeric. Furthermore, the Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.140 million tons has reinforced concerns regarding overall supply availability. However, gains remained limited due to increasing market arrivals in several producing regions. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, leading to higher supplies in local mandis. The arrival of late-harvested turmeric with elevated moisture content has also resulted in discounting of average-quality lots. Additionally, profit-booking by traders and stockists who accumulated inventories at lower prices earlier in the season has added selling pressure. Export performance remained mixed. March 2026 turmeric exports declined 16.8% year-on-year, reflecting softer overseas demand and increased global competition. Nevertheless, exports improved on a monthly basis, indicating a gradual recovery in shipment activity. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 1.67% to 19,440 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 15,540, followed by 15,348. Resistance is placed at 15,854, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 15,976.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15348-15976.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture (rhizome rot) in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* In regions like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies, anticipating prices to cross the ?18,000 mark.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15778.35 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.32% to settle at 18,860 as increased arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions weighed on market sentiment. Fresh arrivals from key Rajasthan centers have risen significantly following favorable harvesting conditions, easing concerns about near-term supply tightness. Improved weather across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting operations faster than anticipated, resulting in a larger-than-expected flow of produce into physical markets. Additionally, farmers have been actively selling stocks to generate liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, maintaining steady supply pressure in major mandis. Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha market have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, creating a temporary supply surplus and limiting price recovery. However, downside pressure remained restricted due to concerns regarding crop quality. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvest period, raising fears about the availability of premium-grade cumin. Unseasonal rainfall also delayed drying and processing activities, creating temporary disruptions in the movement of quality produce. Market participants noted that the availability of high-grade Sortex-quality carryover stocks is lower than last year, supporting premiums for superior-quality material. Fundamental support also stems from lower production estimates. Industry sources indicate that total cumin production for the current season may decline to around 90-92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is expected at 48-50 lakh bags. Reduced acreage, lower yields, and disease outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have contributed to the lower crop outlook. Production estimates in China have also been revised lower due to adverse weather conditions, potentially supporting global demand for Indian cumin. Export performance remained mixed. March exports declined 15.54% year-on-year, reflecting weaker global demand and heightened competition from other origins. However, exports improved on a monthly basis, indicating a gradual recovery in international buying interest. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 4.23% to 8,769 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at 18,730, followed by 18,590. Resistance is placed at 18,990, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 19,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18590-19110.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19599.15 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views