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Gold

Gold prices saw a sharp decline, falling 5.27% to settle at 1,44,954, as a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve weighed heavily on sentiment. While rates were left unchanged, policymakers signaled that any rate cuts would be delayed until there is clearer evidence of easing inflation. This pushed yields higher and reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Although escalating tensions in the Middle East, including missile strikes targeting key energy infrastructure, supported safe-haven demand, rising oil prices also added to inflation concerns, limiting gold’s upside. In the physical market, demand trends remained mixed. In India, discounts widened to as much as $83 per ounce, the deepest in nearly a decade, reflecting weak domestic demand. In contrast, China continued to see strong buying interest, with premiums rising to $20–$30 per ounce and the central bank extending its gold buying streak to 16 months. Central bank purchases slowed overall in January, but geopolitical uncertainty is expected to keep long-term accumulation intact. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with a notable drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 1,39,900, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 1,34,845. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,51,230, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,57,505.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134845-157505.

* Gold dropped to hit a nearly six-week low, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook weighed.

* The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, saying the uncertain economic impact of the conflict involving Iran and highlighting persistent upside risks to inflation.

* Policymakers signaled that rate cuts will remain on hold until there is clearer evidence that price pressures are easing.

Silver

Silver witnessed a sharp sell-off, dropping 6.74% to settle at 2,31,460, as pressure across precious metals intensified amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and a shift toward more hawkish central bank policies. Investors have been reassessing their outlook after major central banks signaled caution on rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks and uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict. The US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but maintained a firm tone, while hints of tightening from the Bank of Japan and a hawkish stance from the Bank of England further weighed on sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data also reinforced resilience in the labor market, adding to the case for prolonged higher rates. On the physical side, silver holdings in London vaults declined slightly to 27,065 tonnes by the end of February, reflecting a modest tightening in available supply. However, this has done little to offset the broader macro pressure driven by interest rate expectations and currency strength. From a technical standpoint, the market is clearly under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising alongside falling prices, indicating the build-up of bearish positions. Immediate support is seen at 2,15,225, and a break below this level could trigger further downside toward 1,98,985. On the upside, resistance is placed at 2,46,690, with a move above this level potentially leading to a recovery toward 2,61,915.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 198985-261915.

* Silver plummeted, its lowest since mid-December amid Iran war-driven volatility and hawkish central bank shifts.

* Investors recalibrated expectations after major banks held rates firm, citing inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty.

* Fed kept rates unchanged, warning of economic fallout from the Iran conflict and sticky inflation.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher, gaining just 0.06% to settle at 8,998, as markets remained on edge amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Fresh attacks on critical energy infrastructure, including missile strikes by Iran on a major LNG facility in Qatar, have heightened fears of further disruptions to global supply. These developments come after earlier strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field, keeping geopolitical risk firmly in focus. Oil has already rallied 50% since the conflict began, largely due to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced output from key regional producers. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia is ramping up shipments from its Yanbu port, with loadings expected to hit a record 3.8 million barrels per day in March. Meanwhile, the US temporarily eased shipping restrictions under the Jones Act to stabilize domestic supply logistics. Inventory data, however, painted a mixed picture—US crude stocks rose sharply by over 6 million barrels, marking the fourth straight weekly build, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined more than expected, indicating steady demand. From a technical perspective, the market is showing signs of fresh buying, with open interest rising alongside prices. Immediate support is seen at 8,773, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 8,547. On the upside, resistance is placed at 9,323, and a move above this level could push prices further toward 9,647.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8547-9647.

* Crude oil gained as fresh attacks on key energy infrastructure in the Middle East heightened concerns over disruptions to global oil and gas flows.

* Iran conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz and prompted major Middle Eastern producers to significantly curb output.

* US crude inventories increased by 6.16 million barrels to 449.3 million, surpassing forecasts of a 0.4 million-barrel rise.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices rallied sharply, gaining 4.31% to settle at 295.5, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that raised fresh concerns over supply disruptions. Iran’s missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—home to the world’s largest LNG export facility—along with reported hits on energy infrastructure in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, have significantly heightened market anxiety around global gas flows. On the supply side, US production trends remained mixed. While average output in the Lower 48 states edged higher to 109.8 bcfd in March, daily production has slipped by around 4 bcfd over the past few days, hitting a six-week low due to declines in key regions like North Dakota, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania. Storage data also offered some insight, with a smaller-than-expected withdrawal of 38 bcf, indicating the winter drawdown season may be nearing its end. Inventories are still 8.3% higher year-on-year, though slightly below the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA continues to project record production levels through 2027, even as domestic demand softens slightly, while LNG exports are expected to steadily increase. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing short covering, reflected in a sharp drop in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is placed at 287.2, with further downside toward 278.8 if breached. On the upside, resistance stands at 304.8, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 314.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 278.8-314.

* Natural gas jumped after Iran launched attacks on key energy infrastructure across the Middle East, intensifying supply concerns.

* Iran carried out missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, a complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March.

Copper

Copper prices dropped sharply by 3.56% to settle at 1,111.95, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a prolonged hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The broader base metals complex also came under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed energy costs higher, raising concerns about global growth and demand. Another key factor weighing on prices was the continued build-up in inventories. LME copper stocks have climbed to 334,100 tons, the highest level since 2019, signaling ample near-term supply. This is also reflected in the widening discount of the cash contract to the three-month futures, indicating a well-supplied market. Additionally, China’s copper imports declined by over 16% in the first two months of the year, further highlighting softer demand conditions, even as concentrate imports showed some improvement. That said, the broader outlook remains constructive. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citi continue to maintain bullish projections, citing rising global consumption and an expected supply deficit in the coming years. Strong export data from Chile and resilient Chinese factory activity also offer some support on dips. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with a sharp drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 1,055.6, with further downside toward 999.3 if breached. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,161.8, and a move above this could push prices toward 1,211.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 999.3-1211.7.

* Copper slid as oil prices spiked stoking inflation fears and reinforcing a hawkish U.S. central bank outlook.

* Copper also came under pressure from mounting stock levels.

* Copper stocks in LME warehouses continued to rise after hitting the highest since 2019, totalling 334,100 tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 2.36% to settle at 306.6, as broader weakness in industrial metals persisted amid rising concerns over the global economic impact of the Iran conflict. Sentiment remained under pressure due to a strong US dollar and a steady build-up in inventories. SHFE stocks jumped 9.2% over the week, while significant inflows into LME warehouses pushed global inventories to their highest levels in months, signaling ample near-term supply. In China, consumption recovery has been slower than expected, even though industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year and fixed-asset investment showed modest growth. At the same time, increasing mine supply has added to the pressure, with projects like the Tara mine in Ireland resuming operations and the Kipushi mine in Congo ramping up output. However, some downside support continues to come from lingering supply tightness in select regions and past production disruptions. On the global front, the zinc market posted a smaller deficit in 2025, and forecasts suggest a slight surplus in 2026 as mine supply improves. Still, demand is expected to grow steadily by around 2% annually, keeping the longer-term outlook relatively balanced. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, reflected in a sharp drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 301.5, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 296.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 312.1, and a move above this could push prices toward 317.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 296.3-317.5.

* Zinc dropped amid growing worries about the global economic impact of the war in Iran.

* Zinc ingot inventory in China continued to build up to a high level in recent years.

* Rising inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and in LME warehouses, along with a strong US dollar, weighed on market.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices came under sharp pressure, falling 3.74% to settle at 330.45, as broader weakness across industrial metals weighed on sentiment amid growing concerns over the global economic impact of the Iran conflict. Some immediate supply fears eased after Emirates Global Aluminium secured alternative export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty around the region continues to keep markets on edge. On the demand side, high prices and rising energy costs have started to dent consumption, with buyers limiting purchases to near-term requirements. This is reflected in elevated global inventories, which have climbed above 1.3 million tons—the highest since 2020—indicating lingering supply overhang. China’s import data also showed softness, with unwrought aluminium imports declining both on a monthly and cumulative basis, even as domestic production rose by 3% in the first two months of the year. At the same time, supply-side risks remain in play. Potential bauxite export quotas from Guinea and ongoing disruptions at Middle Eastern smelters continue to support the broader outlook, while premiums in Europe and Japan have surged, pointing to tightness in physical markets. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with a notable drop in open interest alongside falling prices. Immediate support is seen at 320.9, with a break below potentially dragging prices toward 311.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at 341.9, and a move above this could push prices toward 353.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 311.3-353.3.

* Aluminium plunged as Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) secured alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz.

* China's imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell 10% year-on-year in February.

* China's primary aluminium output in the first two months of 2026 climbed by 3% from the same period last year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped by 0.91% to settle at 14,742, mainly due to expectations of a sharp rise in arrivals from Erode over the next couple of weeks. Additional pressure is coming from higher acreage, supported by favourable rains this season. For 2025–26, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. That said, the downside remains limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both domestic and export demand continue to stay firm. Lower carry-forward stocks and reduced holdings by farmers and stockists are also providing a cushion to prices. Weather-related disruptions, including waterlogging and disease in key growing regions, have impacted yields, even as higher acreage supports overall output growth. At the all-India level, dried production is estimated at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season. Export trends remain mixed, with short-term weakness but stable cumulative demand, while imports have declined sharply, indicating reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 0.67% to 17,220 while prices fell by Rs136. Immediate support is seen at 14,552, with further downside towards 14,364. On the upside, resistance is placed at 14,938, and a move above this level could push prices towards 15,136.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14364-15136.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15041.9 Rupees dropped by -1.1 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped by 1.01% to settle at 22,155, mainly weighed down by the gradual arrival of the new crop across key mandis. As arrivals are expected to gain momentum through March, near-term supply pressure is likely to persist. Additionally, comfortable stock levels and weak export demand have kept market sentiment subdued, with traders reporting limited overseas buying interest. However, the downside appears somewhat cushioned by expectations of lower overall production this season. Output is projected to decline by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes, largely due to reduced acreage and yield losses in Gujarat, where sowing is down 14.34% year-on-year. While Rajasthan’s production is expected to improve, concerns around erratic weather and pest attacks, particularly aphid infestation, continue to pose risks. Export data further highlights demand weakness, with January shipments plunging 48% year-on-year and cumulative exports down 15% for the April–January period. Despite tighter global supplies due to disruptions in competing origins like Syria and Turkey, Indian exports remain under pressure. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with a slight rise in open interest indicating bearish sentiment. Immediate support is seen at 21,960, with a break potentially dragging prices toward 21,760. On the upside, resistance is placed at 22,460, and a sustained move above this could push prices toward 22,760.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21760-22760.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22181.35 Rupees dropped by -0.3 percent.

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