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Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.09% to settle at Rs 142,531, supported by short covering after recent declines. The market remained under pressure from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could continue raising interest rates to contain persistent inflation. Market participants are currently pricing in three rate hikes this year, with around a 64% probability of a September increase. Investors are now focused on the upcoming U.S. ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls data, which are expected to provide further clarity on the Fed's policy direction. Geopolitical developments also remained in focus as hopes for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy faded after Iran denied reports of planned talks. Meanwhile, U.S. housing data presented mixed signals, with single-family home prices declining 0.1% in April, while the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Physical bullion demand showed regional divergence. India witnessed gold trading at a premium for the first time in nearly six weeks as lower prices encouraged buying, although overall demand remained moderate. In contrast, Chinese bullion continued to trade at discounts despite the People's Bank of China extending its gold reserve accumulation for a nineteenth consecutive month. However, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined 38% month-on-month in May. Global investment demand softened as World Gold Council data showed global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of US$2 billion in May, reducing total assets under management to US$604 billion and holdings to 4,121 tonnes, although year-to-date inflows remain positive at nearly US$17 billion. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.94% to 10,151 contracts while prices advanced. Gold has immediate support at Rs 140,780, followed by Rs 139,025, whereas resistance is placed at Rs143,960. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 145,385.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 139025-145385.

*  Gold  gained on short covering after prices dropped amid expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes to tame elevated inflation.

*  Traders expect three Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, and are currently pricing in about ‌a 64% chance of a September increase.

*  Investors continued to monitor the prospects for renewed US-Iran diplomacy, though Iran dismissed reports of talks in Doha as unfounded.

Silver

Silver prices rebounded sharply, settling 2.66% higher at Rs 228,563, supported by fresh buying after recent declines. Despite the recovery, sentiment remained influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may continue tightening monetary policy to combat persistent inflation. Rising energy prices linked to Middle East tensions have reduced expectations of any Fed rate cuts this year, while markets are now pricing in nearly a 65% probability of a September rate hike. Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target despite some easing in services inflation. Fundamental data reflected mixed trends across the physical silver market. Silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes, valued at approximately US$67.3 billion, equivalent to nearly 920,378 silver bars. In contrast, India's silver imports fell sharply following tighter government restrictions on imports. May imports declined 87% year-on-year in value to US$75.57 million, while import volumes plunged 94% to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The government has also increased import duties on gold and silver to 15%, aiming to curb precious metals imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves after record silver imports during FY2025/26. From a technical perspective, silver remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.25% to 11,707 contracts alongside the strong price advance. Immediate support is seen at Rs 222,270, followed by Rs215,980, while resistance is placed at Rs 232,825. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 237,090.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215980-237090.

* Silver rose on short covering after prices dropped amid a firm US dollar and expectations of US interest rate hikes.

* Rising energy prices, fueled by the Middle East conflict, have eliminated expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year

* Traders now pricing in a near 65% chance of a September hike.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined 1.65% to settle at Rs 6,617, pressured by improving supply conditions as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress toward a regional peace agreement. Although vessel traffic has resumed after a temporary pause in hostilities, transit volumes remain below normal due to lingering security concerns after recent attacks. The easing of supply disruptions shifted market focus away from geopolitical risks and back toward the medium-term outlook for increasing global supplies. Fundamental data presented mixed signals. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) declined by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, as part of ongoing government releases aimed at easing global supply shortages and lowering fuel prices. Total U.S. crude inventories, including commercial and SPR stocks, have fallen by 111.4 million barrels since late February, reaching their lowest level since 1984. Weekly U.S. commercial crude inventories also declined by 6.088 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, while crude stocks at Cushing fell by 1.077 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories increased by 2.064 million barrels, distillate stocks rose by 3.064 million barrels, and net crude imports edged higher, reflecting softer demand for refined products. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude price forecasts, citing the quicker reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of a larger global oil surplus in 2027. OPEC's May crude production also dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades due to disruptions affecting Iranian and Gulf exports. From a technical perspective, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 1.61% to 19,161 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is placed at Rs 6,548, followed by Rs 6,480, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 6,739. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 6,862.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6480-6862.

* Crude oil dropped amid a surge in supply as traffic accelerated through the Strait of Hormuz

* US SPR crude inventories dropped by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million, marking the lowest level since May 1983.

* Morgan Stanley lowered its third-quarter 2026 forecast and fourth-quarter 2026 view to $75 ‌per barrel from earlier estimates of $90 and $80.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 2.97% to settle at Rs 312, supported by short covering as stronger liquefied natural gas (LNG) export demand and expectations of record electricity consumption boosted market sentiment. A severe heat wave across the United States has significantly increased air-conditioning demand, with temperatures in New York City forecast to reach 100°F, potentially matching a record set in 1966. Weather forecasts indicating above-normal temperatures through mid-July are expected to keep gas-fired power generation elevated, as natural gas accounts for nearly 40% of U.S. electricity production. In addition, average gas flows to major LNG export terminals increased to 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) during June. Fundamental indicators remained broadly supportive despite healthy supply growth. Production across the Lower 48 states increased to an average of 110.0 bcfd in June from 109.7 bcfd in May, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage injection for the week ended June 19, closely matching market expectations and keeping inventories around 5.7% above the seasonal average. The EIA also projected both U.S. natural gas production and demand to reach record levels over the next two years, forecasting production at 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to rise to 92.1 bcfd in 2026 and 95.0 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to increase further to 17.2 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, reinforcing long-term demand expectations. From a technical perspective, natural gas is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.88% to 21,869 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 302.8, followed by Rs 293.7, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 318.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 324.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 293.7-324.5.

* Natural gas rose driven by increased flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and projections for record-breaking power demand.

* A severe heat wave is sweeping across the country, forcing residents to heavily rely on air conditioning.

* With meteorologists predicting above-normal heat through mid-July, gas-fired plants, are expected to burn significantly more fuel.

Copper

Copper prices gained 0.85% to settle at Rs 1,270.4, supported by short covering as concerns over potential U.S. tariffs continued to encourage copper shipments into the United States, tightening supply in other regions. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the U.S. Commerce Department's review of the refined copper market and domestic refining capacity, which could influence future trade policy. Supply concerns were reinforced after Chile's copper production declined 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tonnes, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to fall, reflecting improving physical demand outside the U.S. Fundamental indicators remained mixed but generally supportive. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 145,000 metric tonne global refined copper deficit in April, compared with a 23,000 tonne surplus in March, as world consumption exceeded production. China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year to 1.26 million tonnes in May, while April unwrought copper imports rose 3.2% to 452,000 tonnes, driven by strong investment in power grid infrastructure. However, copper concentrate imports into China declined 20% year-on-year, highlighting tighter raw material availability. Major financial institutions also maintained a constructive long-term outlook, with Goldman Sachs and Citi raising their copper price forecasts, citing persistent mine supply constraints, stronger U.S. imports, and widening global supply deficits through 2027. Meanwhile, Jefferies expects an average annual supply deficit of nearly 491,000 tonnes through 2030, supporting a positive long-term market outlook. From a technical perspective, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.42% to 13,691 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 1,257.5, followed by Rs 1,244.4, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 1,280.7. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 1,290.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1244.4-1290.8.

* Copper gains as concerns over further tariffs had encouraged shipments to the U.S. and tightened availability elsewhere.

* Copper output in Chile, fell 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tons.

* Comex copper stocks have been rising since April, after a temporary decline in March, risen 3.73% so far in June.

Zinc

Zinc prices advanced 1.63% to settle at Rs364.2, supported by short covering and persistent concerns over tightening mine supply. Zinc remained the only London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal to end June with its forward curve in backwardation, reflecting tight near-term availability. Supply disruptions at major mining and smelting operations continued to underpin prices despite the stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Production setbacks at Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan, Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru following fire damage, and earlier seismic disruptions at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine have reinforced concerns over near-term refined metal availability. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting improving domestic output, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories declined 0.1%, indicating stable physical demand. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, although the cumulative surplus for the first four months of the year widened to 145,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to remain in a small surplus during 2026 due to growing mine supply but forecasts slower mine production growth in 2027 and 2028, which could shift markets outside China into deficit as demand continues expanding by around 2% annually. From a technical perspective, zinc is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.74% to 2,416 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 359.5, followed by Rs 354.7, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 366.8. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 369.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 354.7-369.3.

* Zinc rose due to tighter mine supply.

* It is the only LME metal ending June with the forward curve in backwardation.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged 0.08% higher to settle at Rs 329.6, supported by stronger-than-expected manufacturing data from China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, exceeding market expectations and indicating a modest expansion in factory activity. However, gains remained limited as investors continued to assess the impact of persistent inflation and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also improved expectations for supply availability, reflected by the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash contract moving into a slight discount against the three-month contract. Fundamental data highlighted a mixed supply-demand outlook. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.15 million tonnes in May, while Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories fell 2.7%, indicating steady physical demand. According to StoneX, nearly 3 million tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity have been disrupted since the conflict began, contributing to an estimated 1 million tonne global market deficit this year. Goldman Sachs also maintained a constructive outlook, forecasting a 720,000 tonne global aluminium deficit in 2026, citing slower recovery of smelting operations in West Asia. Meanwhile, China's aluminium production increased 1.7% year-on-year to 3.89 million tonnes in May, while exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 5.7% during the month, reflecting resilient overseas demand. From a technical perspective, aluminium remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing 8.34% to 3,587 contracts alongside a marginal price gain. Immediate support is placed at Rs 327.6, followed by Rs325.4, while resistance is seen at Rs 332.7. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 335.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.4-335.6.

* Aluminium prices rose supported by upbeat factory data in China.

* China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 in June 2026 from 50.0 in the previous month.

* StoneX estimates that as much as 3 million tons of smelter capacity was taken offline since the war began.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged 0.35% higher to settle at Rs 17,182, supported by short covering after recent declines. However, the broader market remained under pressure due to increased farmer selling during the peak harvest season. Higher daily arrivals across major mandis have outpaced immediate demand, while significant inventories of nearly 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal have kept buyers cautious. Farmers who had previously withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices have also started releasing supplies, adding to near-term market pressure. Fundamental conditions remain mixed. Reports of Rhizome Rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals have forced sellers to accept lower prices, while the advance of the Southwest Monsoon and expectations of above-normal rainfall have improved prospects for the 2026-27 crop. Early indications suggest an increase in turmeric acreage across major producing states following last season's attractive prices. Although carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, substantially lower than more than 20 lakh bags last year, the pace of stock depletion has slowed as some buyers delay purchases or shift to lower-cost substitutes. Export demand remained broadly stable, with India's turmeric exports increasing 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States, while Bangladesh remained the largest importer. Demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from the European Union and active buying from Bangladesh for finger-grade turmeric continue to support premium-quality supplies. From a technical perspective, turmeric is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.22% to 25,365 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 17,040, followed by Rs16,900, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 17,300. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs 17,420.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16900-17420.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16229.5 Rupees dropped by -0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped 0.10% to settle at Rs 20,560, as profit booking emerged after the recent rally. Despite the marginal decline, the overall market sentiment remained supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. Daily arrivals at key trading centres such as Unjha and major markets in Rajasthan have continued to decline as the peak post-harvest arrival season comes to an end. Farmers and stockists are releasing high-quality stocks gradually, improving their pricing power and limiting the availability of export-grade cumin. Fundamental conditions remain supportive for quality grades. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms across Gujarat and Rajasthan affected crop quality by increasing moisture content and reducing seed colour, widening the price gap between average and premium export-quality lots. Domestic processors continue to follow hand-to-mouth procurement strategies rather than aggressive forward buying, keeping demand steady but preventing excessive price spikes. International demand remains selective, with European and North American buyers actively seeking residue-compliant, high-specification cumin. Market participants are also monitoring the progress of the Southwest Monsoon, as early rainfall patterns will influence soil moisture conditions ahead of the next sowing season. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, while adverse weather has also reduced production expectations in China. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp 90% fall in shipments to the UAE. However, exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. From a technical perspective, jeera is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.61% to 8,442 contracts while prices eased. Immediate support is seen at Rs 20,460, followed by Rs 20,350, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 20,670. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 20,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20350-20770.

* Jeera dropped  on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20513.8 Rupees dropped by -0.44 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views