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Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.3% to 130,462 as a series of soft US economic indicators strengthened expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The World Gold Council’s latest data also added support, revealing that global central banks accelerated their purchases, adding a net 53 tonnes in October—the strongest buying since November 2024. Year-to-date acquisitions now stand at 254 tonnes, led by Poland and Brazil, while China extended its buying streak to 12 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the US PCE index rose 0.3% in September, in line with forecasts, while personal spending and income also increased modestly, signalling cooling but resilient economic activity. Physical demand, however, showed signs of strain due to elevated prices. Indian gold demand dipped as local prices neared record highs, prompting retailers to offer discounts of up to $22 per ounce. China, too, saw uneven demand as bullion traded between discounts and slight premiums amid volatility and new VAT rules that raised costs. Other Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong reported mixed premiums, while Japan remained largely steady. Globally, gold demand in Q3 surged 3% to a record 1,313 tonnes, driven by a 17% rise in bar and coin purchases and a sharp 134% jump in ETF inflows, offsetting weak jewellery demand. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest up 0.19% to 13,050. Immediate support lies at 129,660 and then 128,860, while resistance is seen at 131,400, above which prices may test 132,340.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 128860-132340.

* Gold settled with gains as a string of US data reinforced the case for an imminent Fed cut. Data

* The US PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in September 2025, the same as in August and in line with expectations.

* Kevin Hassett could succeed Fed Chair Powell in May have also fueled speculation of a shift toward more aggressive easing.

Silver

Silver prices surged 2.96% to 183,408 as tightening global supply and rising expectations of deeper US Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted sentiment. Investor appetite strengthened further, with silver-backed ETFs adding nearly 200 tons—pushing total holdings to their highest level since 2022. A record shipment of silver into London last month helped ease a local market squeeze but simultaneously tightened supplies in other regions. Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to their lowest levels in a decade, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes dropped to a nine-year low. Chinese exports spiked to an unprecedented 660 tons in October, accelerating stock depletion at home and reshaping global supply flows. Soft US labor market data reinforced bets of a rate cut next week, with markets pricing in multiple additional reductions next year. Political speculation also added volatility, with investors weighing the possibility of Kevin Hassett replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—an outcome markets view as supportive for more aggressive monetary easing. Despite the record inflow of 1,674 tons into London vaults, borrowing costs in the OTC market remain historically elevated. US Comex stocks also saw a massive outflow of 1,568 tons since early October, though inventories remain significantly higher year-on-year amid uncertainty around US tariffs. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 4.6% drop in open interest to 13,957. Immediate support lies at 179,995 and then 176,580. Resistance is placed at 186,030, and a breakout above this level could open the door for a move toward 188,650.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 176580-188650.

* Silver rallied amid tightening supply and expectations of deeper US Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* Silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022 amid robust demand.

* A record volume of silver also moved into London last month, tightening supplies in other hubs.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.82% at 5427 as geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.–Venezuela standoff showing no signs of resolution. Sentiment was influenced by Saudi Arabia reducing its January Arab Light crude prices for Asia to their lowest level in five years, while Canadian crude also weakened sharply. Markets remained watchful after President Donald Trump hinted at imminent action against Venezuela, a move that could threaten the country’s 1.1 million bpd output. Additional support came from stalled U.S. diplomatic efforts in Moscow and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets. Fundamentals reflected a mixed global outlook. Fitch Ratings lowered its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions amid oversupply concerns, while OPEC+ kept output levels unchanged for Q1 2026, signaling caution over a looming supply glut. The group also approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum capacity for post-2027 baseline setting. Meanwhile, U.S. production hit a record 13.84 million bpd in September, with strong gains in New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Inventories showed a mild build of 0.574 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks jumped sharply by 4.52 million barrels. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.06% to 13,607 as prices gained 44 points. Crude oil finds immediate support at 5367, with further downside risk toward 5306. Resistance is placed at 5469, and a breakout above this level may open the path toward 5510.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5306-5510.

* Crude oil edges up amid unresolved Russia-Ukraine tension and U.S.-Venezuela standoff.

* Saudi Arabia lowering its January Arab light crude price for Asia to its lowest level in five years.

* Traders continued to watch for a possible US move in Venezuela after President Trump signaled imminent action against the oil giant.

Natural gas

Natural gas surged sharply, settling 9.07% higher at 488 as extreme cold weather across key U.S. regions boosted heating demand and pushed cash prices to their highest levels since last winter. Strong flows of gas to LNG export terminals, near record levels, also supported the rally. However, the upside remained somewhat restricted due to a smaller weekly storage withdrawal, milder short-term demand forecasts, abundant inventories, and weaker benchmark prices in Europe and Asia. According to LSEG, Lower 48 output averaged 109.4 bcfd so far in December, slightly below November’s record 109.6 bcfd. Daily production is poised to fall to a three-week low of 108.2 bcfd, down significantly from the record 111.3 bcfd seen on November 28. Demand, including LNG exports, is projected to ease from 144.5 bcfd this week to 142.6 bcfd next week. LNG feedgas flows slipped marginally to 18.0 bcfd this month from the 18.2 bcfd record in November. U.S. storage fell by 12 bcf last week to 3,923 bcf, keeping inventories 5.1% above the five-year average despite being slightly below last year’s level. The EIA’s latest STEO report anticipates both U.S. output and demand reaching fresh records in 2025, with dry gas production expected at 107.1 bcfd and LNG exports rising to 14.7 bcfd. Technically, the market is seeing strong fresh buying interest, with open interest surging 36.4% to 33,494 as prices rallied 40.6 points. Natural gas now holds immediate support at 462.3, with deeper declines possible towards 436.5. Resistance is placed at 504.4, and a breakout above this zone could drive prices toward 520.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 436.5-520.7.

* Natural gas rose on near-record flows of gas to LNG export plants and as extreme cold boosted heating demand.

* However, a small weekly storage withdrawal, ample amounts of gas in inventory, limiting the upside.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 bcfd so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Copper

Copper prices climbed 1.84% to 1093.35, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and a bullish market outlook ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Sentiment strengthened further after Citi raised its copper price forecast, projecting an average of $13,000 in Q2 2026, up from $12,000 earlier, with a bull-case target of $15,000. Citi expects macro-driven fund buying and tightening supply conditions to keep prices supported. In China, SHFE copper inventories fell 9.2% to 88,905 tons, signaling improving demand. Rio Tinto raised its 2025 production guidance to 860,000–875,000 tons due to a ramp-up at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi project, while Goldman Sachs lifted its 2026 price outlook to $10,710. On the supply side, Chinese smelters are set to cut refined output by over 10% next year amid low treatment charges and overcapacity. Chile’s copper production dropped 7% y/y in October to 458,405 tons, adding to tightening concentrate availability. While the global copper cathode market is expected to show a surplus of 350,000–400,000 tons this year, the deficit in copper concentrate—estimated at 500,000 tons—remains a major concern heading into 2026. The ICSG reported a refined copper deficit of 51,000 tons in September, reversing a surplus from August, while cumulative surplus for the first nine months narrowed significantly. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 3.4% to 7,863 as prices advanced by 19.75 points. Copper now finds support at 1081.3, with deeper downside potential toward 1069.2. Resistance is placed at 1101.1, and a breakout above this level could open the path toward 1108.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1069.2-1108.8.

* Copper jumped after Citi lifted its price outlook, while a weak dollar provided support ahead of U.S. rate cut.

* Citi says they are bullish copper to $13k/t over the next 6-12 months (~15% upside)

* In China, copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9.2% from last week to 88,905 tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose 0.76% to 310.6, supported by tightening near-term availability in LME-registered warehouses and improving economic sentiment in the euro zone, where business activity expanded at its fastest pace in over two years. Fresh macro support also emerged from softer U.S. data, reinforcing expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Supply-side factors added further strength, as multiple zinc mines in Central and Southwest China scheduled December maintenance shutdowns, cutting concentrate output by nearly 700 metric tons in metal content. SHFE zinc inventories also fell 4.17% week-on-week, signaling improving domestic demand trends. However, the upside remained capped as LME zinc stocks surged to 54,325 tons—up 60% since early November—helping ease broader supply concerns. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 20,300 tons in September from 32,700 tons in August, though the cumulative surplus from January to September widened to 120,000 tons versus 107,000 tons a year earlier. China's refined zinc output showed mixed patterns: September production fell 4% month-on-month but surged over 20% year-on-year, while exports in October jumped 243.8% as smelters capitalized on overseas demand amid LME tightness. Technically, zinc is under fresh buying momentum, marked by a 5.11% rise in open interest to 3,520 while prices gained 2.35 rupees. Support stands at 308.7, with deeper downside potential toward 306.8. Resistance lies at 312.7, and a breakout above this may push prices toward 314.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 306.8-314.8.

* Zinc crosses 312 on MCX, highest since Aug 2022 amid supply tightens and Fed-cut bets grow.

* Tight LME warehouse stocks and falling SHFE inventories support prices.

* Chinese mine maintenance in December to curb concentrate output.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices inched up 0.27% to 279, with gains limited by persistent concerns over demand conditions in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. Despite these demand worries, downside remained capped as Chinese smelters approach government-imposed capacity ceilings, keeping supply growth constrained. SHFE aluminium inventories rose 7.25% from last Friday, reflecting short-term supply pressure, yet the broader outlook is supported by expectations of stronger seasonal demand and limited domestic output expansion. Global supply concerns also underpinned sentiment, with October primary aluminium production rising only 0.6% year-on-year to 6.294 million tonnes, according to IAI data. Inventory trends outside China added mixed cues — aluminium stocks at Japan’s major ports fell 3.6% to 329,100 tonnes, pointing to tightening regional availability. Supply disruptions further buoyed prices: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline, Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery, and Century Aluminium curtailed two-thirds of output in Iceland due to equipment failure. On the trade front, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and related products rose 10.4% year-on-year in October, following a strong 35.4% surge in September, highlighting firm demand from construction, transportation, and packaging sectors. Exports also remained robust, with 542,000 tonnes shipped in July. Technically, aluminium is in short-covering mode, with open interest dropping 2.2% to 3,208 while prices rose 0.75 rupees. Support lies at 277.4, with a further drop toward 275.8 possible. Resistance is at 280.6, and a break above may take prices toward 282.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.8-282.2.

* Aluminium surges to 2.5-year high on tightening global supply

* Chinese smelters are approaching state-imposed capacity ceilings, limiting fresh output.

* Citi says they are bullish aluminium to $,3500/t by 2025 (~20% upside)

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled lower by 1.38% at 14,384, pressured by expectations of higher acreage driven by favourable sowing-season rains. However, the downside remained limited as yields in major producing states—Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka—have been adversely affected by excess rainfall. The Erode market is witnessing heavy inflows from these regions, while continuous rains are leading to disease outbreaks and storage challenges due to elevated humidity. Further support is emerging from damage in standing crops across key belts, particularly 15% crop loss reported in Nanded, which has tightened supply concerns. Stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and the absence of fresh arrivals over the past two days has added to market firmness. Traders are also watchful of weather developments, while cautious selling and low inflows continue to offer underlying support. On the production front, dry weather is currently favourable for timely planting, with early estimates indicating a 15–20% rise in acreage, supported by the relatively lower profitability in alternative crops. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric acreage has reached 3.30 lakh hectares, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. Export demand remains strong, with shipments during Apr–Sep 2025 rising 4.02% to 96,679.67 tonnes. Exports in September 2025 also rose 7.59% YoY, though showing a marginal decline compared to August 2025. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices stood at 14,990.15, down 0.24%. Technically, the market is in long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.33% to 7,405. Turmeric now finds support at 14,218, with further downside toward 14,054, while resistance is placed at 14,578, above which prices may test 14,774.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14054-14774.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14990.15 Rupees dropped by -0.24 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by 0.49% at 21,475, weighed by comfortable supplies and subdued export interest amid adequate stock availability. Despite this, the downside remained limited as weather disruptions and delayed sowing continue to lend underlying support. In Gujarat, sowing has declined 7.74% to 1,94,775 hectares as of 1 December 2025, compared to 2,11,121 hectares last year, with uneven rainfall delaying field preparation. Arrivals at Unjha remain extremely low, and good-quality cumin continues to command premium prices. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has improved slightly but remains highly price-sensitive due to global logistical and weather hurdles that are tightening supply chains. The conclusion of the retail season and weak participation from foreign buyers have also capped the upside. Carry-forward stocks remain sizeable at nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded this season, leaving an estimated 16 lakh bags for the next year. Production for the 2025 season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production constraints persist, with China’s estimates reduced to 70–80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan together add limited volumes. Jeera exports during Apr–Sep 2025 dropped 14.51% to 1,01,898.64 tonnes. However, September exports rose both YoY and MoM. In Unjha spot, prices slipped 0.66% to 21,232.50. Technically, the market is in long liquidation, with open interest down 2.22% to 2,778. Support is at 21,430, with further downside to 21,370, while resistance is at 21,560, above which prices may test 21,630.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21370-21630.

* Jeera dropped due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing dropped by 7.74 to 194,775 hectares compared to 211,121 hectares last year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21232.5 Rupees dropped by -0.66 percent.

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