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India is expected to witness below-average rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly across central and northern regions, as western disturbances have slowed the advance of the southwest monsoon. The delay could impact sowing activities for key summer crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses. While southern states including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and parts of Maharashtra are likely to receive adequate rainfall, significant rainfall deficits are anticipated elsewhere. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects monsoon activity to regain momentum during the final week of June. Meanwhile, rainfall during the first ten days of June remained 26.5% below normal.

Key Highlights

• Western disturbances have delayed the advance of the southwest monsoon across India.
• Central and northern regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks.
• Delayed rains may slow sowing of rice, cotton, soybean, and pulse crops.
• Southern states are likely to continue receiving adequate rainfall during the fortnight.
• IMD expects monsoon activity to strengthen and spread widely in the last week of June.

The progress of India's southwest monsoon has slowed considerably due to the influence of western disturbances, raising concerns over rainfall distribution during the critical early phase of the crop-sowing season. Weather officials expect below-average rainfall across large parts of central and northern India over the next two weeks, potentially affecting agricultural activities and soil moisture conditions.

The monsoon is a crucial weather event for India's economy, contributing nearly 70% of annual rainfall and supporting water reservoirs, groundwater recharge, and agricultural production. Nearly half of the country's farmland depends on rainfall due to limited irrigation facilities, making the timely arrival and spread of the monsoon vital for crop cultivation.

According to officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon has so far covered Kerala, Tamil Nadu, most of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and parts of southern Maharashtra. These regions are expected to continue receiving favorable rainfall during the coming fortnight, supporting agricultural operations and reservoir replenishment.

However, rainfall in central and northern states is expected to remain significantly below normal. This could delay the sowing of major kharif crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses. The slower monsoon advance follows a delayed onset over Kerala, where seasonal rains arrived three days later than usual.

Despite the current slowdown, weather officials remain optimistic that monsoon activity will strengthen in the last week of June. Increased rainfall and broader coverage are expected across most parts of the country as atmospheric conditions become more favorable. Notably, India received rainfall that was 26.5% below normal during the first ten days of June, highlighting the weak start to the season.

While the monsoon has made progress across southern India, delayed advancement and below-normal rainfall in key agricultural regions may temporarily affect sowing activities until rainfall improves later in June.

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