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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.62% at 148,932, supported by growing optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which helped ease concerns over prolonged inflationary pressures and aggressive monetary tightening. Market sentiment was also influenced by mixed U.S. economic data, with weekly jobless claims rising to 229,000 for the week ended June 6, exceeding market expectations of 219,000 and indicating some moderation in labor market strength. Meanwhile, both producer and consumer inflation data for May came in stronger than expected, with consumer prices recording the fastest annual increase in nearly three years, largely driven by higher energy costs. Gold continues to face pressure from elevated oil prices following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, as stronger energy markets have reinforced expectations of higher interest rates. However, market participants currently assign a 69% probability of a U.S. rate hike in December. On the demand side, China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak for a nineteenth consecutive month, increasing reserves to 74.96 million fine troy ounces in May. Physical demand remained subdued in key Asian markets, particularly India, where buyers stayed cautious amid volatile international prices. India's gold ETFs registered their first monthly outflow in a year as investors booked profits, while global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 0.29% to 9,385 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs915. Gold is currently supported at 147,060, with a break below this level potentially triggering further weakness toward 145,185. On the upside, resistance is seen at 150,195, and a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a rally toward 151,455.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145185-151455.

*  Gold rose as growing optimism over an imminent peace deal between the US and Iran eased concerns about persistent inflation.

*  US, Iranian attacks dent peace deal hopes

*  US producer prices increase more than expected in May

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 1.76% at 239,653, supported by improving risk sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that a peace agreement with Iran could be finalized as early as this weekend. However, underlying inflation concerns remained elevated, with U.S. producer prices rising 6.5% year-on-year in May, marking the strongest increase since November 2022 and slightly exceeding market expectations. Consumer inflation also remained at a three-year high, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter monetary policy stance and potentially raise interest rates in 2026. Adding to the global policy shift, the European Central Bank delivered its first rate hike since 2023 and raised inflation forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. Geopolitical developments continued to influence market sentiment as tensions in the Middle East persisted despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continued to display resilience, supported by strong labor market conditions and stable economic indicators. On the demand side, China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical seasonal average. Strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of policy changes significantly boosted imports and supported domestic silver premiums. In India, the government imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, a move aimed at reducing import volumes and easing pressure on the rupee. The restrictions could tighten domestic availability and increase local market premiums. Silver holdings in London vaults also increased by 0.6% during May, reaching 27,611 tonnes. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2% to 11,361 contracts while prices gained Rs4,148. Silver has immediate support at 232,605, with further downside support at 225,555. On the upside, resistance is seen at 244,595, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 249,535.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 225555-249535.

* Silver gained as President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe.

* Data showed that U.S. weekly jobless claims rose to 229,000 for the week ended June 6, topping forecasts of 219,000.

* U.S. consumer inflation also increased at its fastest pace in ‌three years during the month.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 4.38% to settle at 8,344 as market participants assessed the evolving supply outlook amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investor sentiment remained volatile after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of intensified military action against Iran and stated that the United States would seek control over Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure. While tensions remained elevated, concerns over actual supply disruptions eased somewhat, leading to profit-taking after the recent rally in oil prices. The market continued to monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran declared closed, raising concerns about disruptions to one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. However, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that ship traffic and oil exports through the region have been increasing despite ongoing conflict, helping to ease immediate supply fears. Supporting the broader supply narrative, OPEC production in May fell to its lowest level in more than two decades, as sanctions, export restrictions, and disruptions linked to the Iran conflict significantly reduced output from key producers. Fundamental data from the United States provided mixed signals. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 7.2 million barrels during the week ended June 5, substantially exceeding market expectations of a 4 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also fell, while refinery utilization increased to 95.3%, indicating strong refining activity. However, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose, limiting bullish momentum. Distillate inventories also posted a modest decline. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 25.77% to 11,505 contracts while prices declined by Rs382. Crude oil has immediate support at 8,140, with further downside support at 7,937. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,678, and a move above this level could trigger further gains toward 9,013.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7937-9013.

* Crude oil dropped as investors weighed the impact of supply disruptions

* Trump says US will hit Iran 'very hard'

* Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, threatens to fire on vessels attempting passage

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 3.7% to settle at 294.4, pressured by expectations that U.S. gas inventories will remain comfortably above seasonal norms despite strong summer cooling demand. Market sentiment was also influenced by a slight increase in daily production and continued confidence in adequate supply availability. Although weather forecasts indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the United States through June 26, supporting air-conditioning demand and gas consumption by power utilities, the market remained focused on abundant storage levels and long-term supply growth. According to LSEG, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states stood at 109.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, slightly below May’s average but still at historically elevated levels. Demand prospects remain supportive, with total gas consumption, including exports, expected to rise from 102.9 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week. However, flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities have eased to 16.5 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May due to seasonal maintenance activities at several export plants, including Golden Pass and Freeport LNG facilities. Storage data provided mixed signals for the market. U.S. utilities injected 95 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the latest reported week, below expectations of a 101 Bcf build. Total inventories reached 2.578 trillion cubic feet, remaining 138 Bcf above the five-year average despite being marginally below year-ago levels. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026, supported by growing LNG exports and increased power sector demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising sharply by 27.42% to 21,030 contracts while prices declined by Rs11.3. Natural gas has immediate support at 289.7, with further downside support at 284.9. Resistance is seen at 303.1, and a move above this level could open the door for gains toward 311.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 284.9-311.7.

* Natural gas slid on a slight increase in daily output and expectations gas in storage will remain above normal levels.

* LSEG reports slight rise in output, demand to increase with warmer weather

* LNG export flows dip due to maintenance at major plants, including Golden Pass and Freeport

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 0.87% at 1,325, supported by tightening exchange inventories and continued concerns over future supply availability. Market sentiment improved after London Metal Exchange copper stocks declined by 31,425 tonnes, or more than 7%, to 369,575 tonnes, marking the lowest level since May 11. Additional support came from ongoing speculation surrounding potential U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, which has encouraged metal flows into the United States and tightened supply conditions in other regions. Investor confidence was further boosted by expectations of long-term market deficits. Jefferies projects an average annual copper supply deficit of nearly 491,000 tonnes through 2030, citing slower mine output growth and delayed recovery at major operations. At the same time, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell nearly 4% last week, while China’s central bank encouraged banks to expand lending, reinforcing expectations for stronger industrial activity and metal demand. China also reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in unwrought copper imports during April, ending six consecutive months of contraction and reflecting robust demand from power infrastructure projects. Despite supportive demand indicators, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 30,000 tonnes in March and expects the market to return to a surplus in 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary production. However, production growth remains constrained by limited concentrate availability and operational challenges at major mines. Major investment banks have also raised their copper price forecasts, citing tighter global supply conditions and stronger U.S. imports. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.61% to 15,325 contracts while prices gained Rs11.45. Copper has immediate support at 1,310.2, with further downside support at 1,295.2. Resistance is seen at 1,335.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,345.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1295.2-1345.2.

* Copper gained as LME copper stocks decreased by 31,425 tons i.e. over 7% to 369,575 tons, the lowest level since May 11.

* Some support also seen continued speculation about possible U.S. import tariffs on refined copper.

* Jefferies expects copper prices to remain higher for longer than previously projected.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 1.5% at 364.75, supported by growing concerns over tightening global supply conditions following a series of production disruptions at major mining and smelting operations. Market sentiment strengthened after Goldman Sachs suggested that Boliden’s Garpenberg mine could operate at a structurally lower production level for an extended period following a seismic event earlier this year. Additional support came after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru due to fire-related damage, while Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced output at its facilities in Kazakhstan following an explosion. These incidents reinforced concerns over refined zinc availability and added to expectations of a tighter market balance. However, gains were partially capped by broader macroeconomic headwinds. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and concerns over their impact on global economic growth limited buying interest. A stronger U.S. dollar, supported by robust U.S. labor market data, also weighed on sentiment. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, significantly above expectations, strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end. In China, producer price inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month, reaching its highest level since 2022, while the central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policies to support economic growth and domestic demand. Fundamentally, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 metric tons in March from 58,700 metric tons in February, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. While Goldman Sachs expects a small market surplus this year, it anticipates tighter conditions beyond 2026 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues to expand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 3.13% to 2,445 contracts while prices gained Rs5.4. Zinc has immediate support at 359.4, with further downside support at 354.0. Resistance is seen at 367.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 370.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 354-370.8.

* Zinc gained supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Goldman Sachs said Boliden's Garpenberg mine could "structurally reset to a lower production level for longer" following a seismic event in March.

* Factory-gate inflation in China, rose for a third straight month in May to its highest since 2022.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled higher by 1.01% at 375.05, supported by ongoing concerns over supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Gulf region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium smelting capacity, and continued uncertainty surrounding regional operations has raised concerns about potential shortages. Market sentiment was further supported by historically low physical inventories, with aluminium stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses remaining near multi-year lows. Production disruptions at key Gulf smelters, including Emirates Global Aluminium and Bahrain’s ALBA, have intensified supply concerns, while stricter controls on bauxite exports from Guinea have added pressure on the raw material supply chain. Demand indicators also remained supportive. China’s industrial profits recorded their strongest growth since November 2023, highlighting resilience in manufacturing activity. Chinese aluminium exports continued to expand, with unwrought aluminium and product exports rising 5.68% year-on-year in May to 632,000 metric tons. During the first five months of 2026, exports increased 10.4% to 2.69 million tons, reflecting strong overseas demand amid tighter global supply conditions. China’s imports of aluminium products also strengthened earlier in the year as higher international prices encouraged additional purchases. Supply-side developments remained mixed. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 2.1% year-on-year in April, largely due to a sharp drop in Gulf output. In contrast, Chinese production continued to rise, supported by strong operating margins and stable domestic demand. Aluminium inventories at Japanese ports declined significantly, further highlighting tight physical market conditions. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 8.62% to 3,074 contracts while prices gained Rs3.75. Aluminium has immediate support at 372.3, with further downside support at 369.4. Resistance is seen at 376.9, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 378.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 369.4-378.6.

* Aluminium gains on continued concern about a prolonged conflict creating shortages.

* Total aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained at a multi-year low.

* Guinea's stricter controls on bauxite exports have added to concerns over tighter raw material supplies.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally lower by 0.15% at 15,676 as increased arrivals and farmer selling during the peak harvest season weighed on market sentiment. Faster arrivals across major mandis have outpaced immediate demand, creating short-term supply pressure and prompting a correction in prices. Significant stock availability, particularly in key producing regions such as Warangal where inventories were estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags at the end of May, has kept buyers cautious. Farmers who had earlier withheld stocks in anticipation of higher prices have increasingly entered the market to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing activities. Additional pressure came from the arrival of late-harvested turmeric with higher moisture content, leading to aggressive discounting for average-quality lots. Export demand also remained mixed, with fresh orders from Europe and the United States slowing recently despite overall annual exports remaining stable. Reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some arrivals further contributed to softer market sentiment as sellers accepted lower prices to clear stocks. However, downside remained limited due to tightening carry-forward inventories and steady export inquiries from neighboring markets. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall supply buffer. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers and continued procurement inquiries from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric have also provided underlying support. Furthermore, favorable monsoon progress and expectations of above-normal rainfall are encouraging higher acreage for the next sowing season. Export data showed turmeric shipments during March 2026 declined 16.8% year-on-year but improved 10.14% compared to February, indicating gradual recovery in export activity. In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs15,653.5 per quintal. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 17.58% to 11,510 contracts while prices fell by Rs24. Turmeric has immediate support at 15,604, with further downside support at 15,534. Resistance is seen at 15,772, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 15,870.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15534-15870.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15653.5 Rupees dropped by -0.14 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 0.52% at 19,055 as increased arrivals of the new crop from key producing regions exerted pressure on the market. Improved weather conditions across North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities more quickly than anticipated, resulting in a sharp increase in arrivals rather than a gradual supply flow. Farmers have also accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding further selling pressure. Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha market remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, contributing to a temporary supply surplus and weighing on prices. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to concerns over the availability of premium-quality produce. Market participants reported shrinking supplies of bold and residue-compliant seeds, which continue to attract demand from European and North American buyers. In addition, industrial processors have started rebuilding inventories at current price levels. Weather-related disruptions, including unseasonal rains, thunderstorms, and hailstorms in Rajasthan, have affected crop quality and raised concerns over the availability of high-grade cumin. Reports also indicate that the volume of premium Sortex-grade carry-forward stocks is lower than last year, providing support to higher-quality segments of the market. Production estimates remain lower compared to the previous season. National cumin production is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags, significantly below last year's output of approximately 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Lower acreage, reduced yields, and disease outbreaks have contributed to the decline. Global production concerns, particularly in China, have also provided some underlying support to prices. Export performance remained mixed. March exports declined 15.54% year-on-year but improved 17.64% compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in buying interest. In the Unjha spot market, prices ended at Rs19,602.05 per quintal. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 13.64% to 4,956 contracts while prices fell by Rs100. Jeera has immediate support at 18,940, with further downside support at 18,810. Resistance is seen at 19,170, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 19,270.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18810-19270.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed on prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19602.05 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

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