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Gold

Gold prices saw a modest rise of 0.26%, closing at 85,874, as market attention remained on U.S. tariff policies under Donald Trump, which have raised concerns about a potential trade war. The impact of these trade tensions has also reflected in India's gold imports, which are expected to drop by a staggering 85% in February compared to last year, reaching the lowest levels in two decades. Similarly, China’s gold imports via Hong Kong saw a significant 44.8% decline in January. However, despite weaker imports, China's domestic gold market showed signs of recovery, with the central bank increasing its gold reserves for the third consecutive month, reaching 2,285 tons. Physical gold demand in top consuming nations, China and India, remained weak due to record-high prices, leading to discounts in the market. Indian dealers offered discounts of up to $35 per ounce, while gold in China was sold at a discount of $1-$3 per ounce over spot prices. Swiss gold exports to India and China also plummeted sharply, reflecting weak consumer demand. In contrast, investment demand in India is expected to remain robust, with rising interest in gold ETFs, digital gold, and bullion products. From a technical perspective, fresh buying activity has been observed, with open interest increasing by 2.14% to 15,676. Gold is currently receiving support at 85,410, with a potential downside test at 84,955. Resistance is expected at 86,125, and a breakout above this level could push prices further toward 86,385.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 84955-86385.
* Gold gains as attention was on U.S. President Trump's tariff plans which has raised concerns about a trade war.
* Trump's trade policies, seen as inflationary and with potential to spark tiffs with trade partners.
* India's Feb gold imports to hit 20 – year low on record high prices


Silver
Silver prices rose by 0.84%, closing at 94,641, as weaker U.S. economic data fueled expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting precious metals. Investor sentiment was also influenced by President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including a probe into tariffs on copper imports. The Federal Reserve remains cautious, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasizing the need for greater clarity on the economic impact of these policies before making further rate decisions. On the production front, Hecla Mining Company, the largest U.S. silver producer, reported a 13% increase in silver output for 2024, mining 16.2 million ounces—the second-highest production level in its history. However, silver coin purchases in the U.S. dropped 27% year-on-year in January, marking the lowest demand for the month since 2018. Meanwhile, the LBMA reported an 8.6% decline in silver held in London vaults, the sharpest monthly drop since records began in 2016. The silver market is expected to remain in a deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with industrial fabrication demand projected to reach a record 700 million ounces. While investment demand is forecast to rise by 3%, jewelry demand is expected to decline by 6%, mainly due to high local prices in India. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 34.14% to 7,448 while prices increased by 788 rupees. Silver has immediate support at 93,900, with a potential test at 93,165. Resistance is seen at 95,070, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 95,505.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 93165-95505.
* Silver gained as softening US economic data fueled expectations for further interest rate cuts from the Fed.
* Fed needs more clarity before it can go back to cutting rates, says Goolsbee
* US silver coin purchases dropped 27% year-on-year in January to 3.5 moz, the lowest January demand since 2018.


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices fell by 0.25%, closing at 6,000, as hopes for a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to pressure the market. Additionally, concerns over U.S. trade policies, including tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, raised fears of economic slowdown, further weighing on oil demand. However, a drop in U.S. crude stockpiles provided some support, as the American Petroleum Institute reported a 640,000-barrel decline for the week ending February 21. Similarly, the EIA data showed a 2.332 million barrel decrease in crude oil inventories, defying expectations of a build. Despite lower stockpiles, U.S. oil production is expected to reach record levels in 2025, with the EIA raising its forecast to 13.59 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 13.55 million bpd previously. Meanwhile, U.S. crude consumption is projected to remain stable at 20.5 million bpd. However, inventory builds at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub and rising gasoline and distillate stockpiles indicate an increase in supply, which could further limit price gains. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, surged by 3.908 million barrels, the highest in seven weeks. Looking ahead, the EIA expects Brent crude to average $74 per barrel in 2025 before declining to $66 in 2026 due to rising production and weaker demand growth. From a technical perspective, crude oil is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 7.72% to 5,050 while prices fell by 15 rupees. Support is at 5,963, with a possible test of 5,926, while resistance stands at 6,050, with a breakout potentially pushing prices toward 6,100.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5926-6100.
* Crude oil dropped as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to weigh on prices.
* Trump's decisions on tariffs against China and other trading partners could hamper economic growth, also weighed.
* Oil sanctions in focus after talks between U.S. and Russia


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices declined by 1.16%, settling at 349.7, as forecasts for warmer weather and record-high production offset strong LNG exports and tight storage levels. Milder temperatures expected through March 12 are likely to reduce heating demand, weighing on prices. Additionally, production remains near record levels, rebounding to 104.3 bcfd by February 25 after briefly dropping to 100.5 bcfd due to frozen wells. Despite strong supply, LNG exports continue to rise, averaging 15.6 bcfd in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January, with a daily record of 16.4 bcfd due to increased flows to Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant. Storage remains tight, with stockpiles 11% below the five-year average following heavy withdrawals during extreme cold. U.S. utilities pulled 196 bcf from storage for the week ending February 14, surpassing expectations of 188 bcf. The sharpest declines occurred in the Midwest (-65 bcf), South Central (-54 bcf), and East (-39 bcf) regions. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record natural gas output and demand in 2025. Dry gas production is expected to rise from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 to 104.6 bcfd in 2025 and 107.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 4.87% to 16,583 while prices fell by 4.1 rupees. Natural gas has support at 341.7, with a potential test at 333.6, while resistance is seen at 361.1, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward 372.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 333.6-372.4.
* Natural gas fell amid forecasts for warmer weather and record production.
* Milder conditions are expected through March 12, reducing demand for natural gas to heat homes and businesses.
* February production remains near record levels, rebounding to 104.3 bcfd by February 25.


Copper
Copper prices edged up by 0.45%, settling at 864.3, after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on copper imports to boost domestic production. The move is seen as part of a broader strategy to counter China’s dominance in the global copper market, particularly given the metal’s critical role in electric vehicles, military equipment, and consumer electronics. Despite the bullish outlook driven by electrification demand and supply constraints due to underinvestment in mining, China’s copper supply remains abundant. Stocks have surged to over 260,000 tonnes—three times the level at the start of the year—while bonded stocks have doubled to 33,000 tonnes. Additionally, disruptions at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, due to a massive power outage in Chile, added to short-term supply concerns. The global refined copper market saw a 22,000 metric ton deficit in December, narrowing from a 124,000 metric ton shortfall in November, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). However, for the full year, the market recorded a surplus of 301,000 metric tons compared to a 52,000 metric ton deficit in the previous year. Meanwhile, China’s refined copper production increased by 4.3% year-on-year in December, reaching 1.24 million metric tons. Technically, the copper market remains in fresh buying mode, with open interest increasing by 0.27% to 5,584 while prices gained 3.9 rupees. Copper has support at 858.9, with further downside potential to 853.4. Resistance is likely at 873.1, with a break above this level opening the door for a test of 881.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 853.4-881.8.
* Copper surged after US President Donald Trump ordered an investigation into potential tariffs on copper imports.
* World's top copper mine Escondida without electricity due to Chile power outage
* Copper supply in China remains abundant, with stocks rising to over 260,000 tonnes, three times the level at the start of the year.


Zinc
Zinc prices edged up by 0.28%, settling at 268.1, as the global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024, reversing from a surplus of 310,000 tons the previous year due to lower production. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose by 26.3% from last Friday, reflecting ample supply despite production cuts. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) signaled potential policy adjustments to support economic growth, reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures after January's record-high bank loan issuance. However, U.S. trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding potential tariffs under President Donald Trump, continues to influence market sentiment. Global zinc production faced a third consecutive year of decline, with refined zinc output falling 2.6% due to lower processing rates in China, Japan, and South Korea. Mine production dropped by 2.8%, driven by reduced output in Canada, China, South Africa, and Peru. China’s imports of zinc contained in concentrates fell by 13.1%, while net imports of refined zinc rose by 15.5%. Inventories across major exchanges and storage facilities dropped by 31,000 tons to 791,000 tons. In China, refined zinc production increased by 1% month-on-month in January but declined nearly 8% year-on-year, missing expectations.  Technically, zinc is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 3.66% to 2,342 while prices rose by 0.75 rupees. Zinc has immediate support at 266.8, with a potential test of 265.3, while resistance is at 269.5, and a break above this level could push prices to 270.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.3-270.7.
* Zinc gains as the global zinc market swung to a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 26.3 % from last Friday.
* PBOC said in its fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report that it would adjust policy at the appropriate time to support the economy.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged down by 0.14%, settling at 258.1, as post-holiday inventory buildup continued, with expectations of a rapid increase in stockpiles this week. Pressure on prices also came from the resumption of aluminium production in China, where domestic operating capacity is expected to rise gradually in February. The U.S. aluminium premium over the LME global benchmark has surged 60% since Trump’s re-election in November 2024, reaching 35 cents per pound. Global primary aluminium output in January increased by 2.7% year-on-year to 6.252 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). However, downside pressure was limited by the EU’s agreement to ban Russian primary aluminium imports, tightening global supply. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose by 17.5%, while China’s aluminium output hit a record 44 million tonnes in 2024. Despite this, Beijing’s production cap of 25 million tonnes, set in 2017, is expected to force a slowdown in output this year to curb excess supply and meet carbon emission targets. Further support came from LME data, which showed aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses dropped to 547,950 tonnes, the lowest since May, after 4,000 tonnes of outflows. Technically, the aluminium market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 0.74% to 2,853 while prices declined by 0.35 rupees. Aluminium has support at 256.2, with further downside potential to 254.4, while resistance is seen at 260.8, with a breakout potentially pushing prices toward 263.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.4-263.6.
* Aluminium dropped as the post-holiday inventory buildup continues, with inventories expected to increase rapidly this week.
* Pressure also seen amid resumption of aluminium production in China, with domestic operating capacity expected to rise.
* Global primary aluminium output in January rose 2.7% year on year to 6.252 million tonnes – IAI


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices declined by 0.87% to settle at Rs.53,730 due to increased supply and limited mill buying. Mills are currently well-stocked and do not have urgent purchasing needs. Additionally, Brazil's cotton production for 2024-25 is expected to increase by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with the planting area expanding by 4.8%, further strengthening supply. Meanwhile, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is expected to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to stabilize the market. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates that India’s cotton output for 2024-25 will decline to 301.75 lakh bales, down from 327.45 lakh bales in 2023-24, mainly due to lower yields in Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana. Despite this, cotton quality remains strong. The total cotton supply until January 2025 is projected at 234.26 lakh bales, consisting of 188.07 lakh bales from fresh pressings, 16 lakh bales of imports, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 315 lakh bales, with exports forecasted at 17 lakh bales, a decline from the previous season’s 28.36 lakh bales. On the global front, the U.S. cotton balance sheet saw minimal changes, with domestic mill use reduced by 100,000 bales and ending stocks rising accordingly. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 253 while prices dropped Rs.470. Support is seen at Rs.53,730, and a further decline could test the same level. Resistance is also noted at Rs.53,730, and a move above this level could push prices higher.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 53730-53730.
* Cotton dropped due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.
* Mills are well-stocked and are not facing immediate purchasing requirements.
* Brazil’s 2024-25 cotton production is projected to be 1.6 per cent higher at 3.7616 million tons
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25612.4 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined by -0.21% to settle at 12,518, as the arrival of the new crop has begun. The area under turmeric cultivation has increased this season to 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than last year's 3 lakh hectares. However, production is unlikely to rise significantly due to untimely rains that have impacted yields. In key growing regions like Nanded, productivity is expected to decline by 10-15%, leading to potential fluctuations in total output compared to the previous season’s 10.75 lakh tonnes. Despite the price weakness, downside movement remains limited as concerns over lower yields and slow rhizome growth persist. Reports indicate that the Nanded region is particularly affected by small rhizomes and crop rots, which may further constrain supply. However, a clearer picture will emerge once harvesting accelerates in major production areas. On the trade front, turmeric exports rose by 9.80% between April and November 2024, reaching 121,601.21 tonnes compared to 110,745.34 tonnes during the same period in 2023. However, monthly exports in November 2024 dropped by 20.18% compared to October. Year-over-year data for November showed a 48.22% increase in exports. Meanwhile, turmeric imports surged by 101.80% during April-November 2024, reaching 18,937.95 tonnes. However, November imports saw a decline of 34.84% compared to October. Technically, turmeric is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 1.88% to 12,460. Support is seen at 12,406, with a further downside target of 12,294. Resistance is at 12,640, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 12,762.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12294-12762.
* Turmeric prices dropped as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* New turmeric crop is arriving in Nizamabad and Hingoli Mandi.
* However downside seen limited as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12849.9 Rupees dropped by -1.71 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices increased by 0.43% to settle at 20,855, supported by delayed new crop arrivals in Gujarat, which have been pushed back by about a month due to unfavorable weather. The late start of sowing in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan contributed to market firmness. However, the upside remained limited as domestic demand remains subdued, and current export requirements are being met through existing stock. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the season ends, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. India’s cumin seed production is estimated at 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, a significant increase from the previous year’s 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares. With Indian cumin being the cheapest globally, major buyers, including China, are expected to source their requirements from India, providing further support to prices. Indian cumin is currently priced at $3,050 per tonne, while Chinese cumin costs $200-$250 more, making India the preferred sourcing destination. Jeera exports surged by 74.04% between April and November 2024, reaching 147,006.20 tonnes compared to 84,467.16 tonnes in the same period in 2023. However, exports declined by 28.92% in November compared to October. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 2.72% to 2,679. Support is seen at 20,440, with a further downside target of 20,030. Resistance is at 21,370, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 21,890.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20030-21890.
* Jeera gains as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* However upside seen limited as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions and good sowing.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20771.65 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

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