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Gold

Gold prices slipped by 0.7% to close at 98,726 yesterday, pressured by renewed optimism around global trade deals that dulled the metal’s safe-haven appeal. The European Union is edging closer to a trade pact with the US that could introduce a moderate 15% tariff on EU goods—averting the harsher 30% levy initially planned for August 1. Similar frameworks with Japan have added to the risk-on sentiment, weighing on gold prices. However, some caution persists as other nations like South Korea and India are still negotiating, with threats of steep 15–50% tariffs lingering in the background. Markets are also closely watching upcoming trade talks with China and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, though expectations of a potential rate cut in October could lend some longer-term support to bullion. Physical market cues remain mixed. Swiss gold exports surged 44% month-on-month in June, with large shipments heading back to UK vaults, lifting London holdings to their highest level since August 2023 at 8,776 tonnes. In contrast, India’s domestic demand stayed sluggish, weighed down by near-record prices that forced dealers to widen discounts to lure hesitant buyers. Imports plunged 40% year-on-year in June to just 21 tons—the lowest in over two years. Technically, gold is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 16.56% to 7,735 lots while prices dropped by 691 rupees. Support is firm at 98,300, with deeper downside possible to 97,875 if breached. On the upside, resistance is likely around 99,135, and crossing this could lift prices towards 99,545 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 97875-99545.

* Gold slipped as optimism over a US–EU trade deal reduced demand for safe-haven bullion.

* The EU and US near agreement on a broad 15% tariff, avoiding a steeper 30% levy.

* Markets await clarity on US–China trade talks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent set to visit Beijing.

Silver

Silver prices closed marginally lower by 0.43% at 115,133 as improving global trade sentiment and stronger equities limited safe-haven buying. Optimism around easing trade tensions gained traction after the US announced deals with Japan and signaled progress with the European Union for a broader agreement that may impose a moderate 15% baseline tariff, avoiding harsher measures. These developments, alongside expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 29–30 meeting, have capped silver’s upside for now. However, the market is still pricing in a possible rate cut as early as September, which could later support precious metals. On the macro front, US jobless claims surprisingly fell for the sixth consecutive week, indicating underlying strength in the labor market, despite broader concerns about hiring momentum. Meanwhile, retail silver investment shows a mixed picture. In Europe, investor appetite is gradually recovering from a low base, but still trails the elevated levels of 2020–2022. In India, retail investment demand has remained resilient, recording a 7% year-over-year rise in the first half of 2025 on firm price expectations. Technically, silver remains under long liquidation, with open interest slipping by nearly 4% to 19,824 as prices dropped by 501 rupees. Immediate support lies at 114,510, and if breached, prices could test 113,880 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 115,610, and a breakout above this could lift prices toward the 116,080 mark in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 113880-116080.

* Silver prices fell as easing global trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand and boosted market optimism.

* The US and EU progress toward a trade deal with a 15% baseline tariff, adding exemptions.

* US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 217,000, signaling labor market resilience despite weak hiring momentum.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended slightly higher by 0.3% at 5,672, supported by fresh optimism around easing trade tensions and tighter-than-expected U.S. stock data. Hopes of a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which may introduce a moderate 15% baseline tariff with potential exemptions, added to positive sentiment following the recently concluded Japan deal. This progress has revived expectations that smoother global trade could bolster energy demand in the coming months. Supply-side developments also lent support. A temporary halt in Azeri crude exports from Turkey’s Ceyhan port and a brief stoppage at Russia’s key Black Sea ports tightened near-term supply concerns, although Russian loadings have since resumed. Meanwhile, U.S. government data showed a sharper-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories by 3.169 million barrels, well above market estimates of a 1.6 million-barrel decline, signaling steady refinery demand. However, Cushing, Oklahoma, saw a build of 455,000 barrels, slightly capping the overall bullish tone. On the outlook front, OPEC’s July report maintained a slightly bullish tone, projecting global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day for 2025, mostly driven by non-OECD nations, especially in Asia. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest fell by 2.2% to 11,542 while prices ticked up by 17 rupees. Crude oil now finds immediate support at 5,638; a break below could see it testing 5,603. Resistance is pegged at 5,727, and a move above this level may push prices towards 5,781 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5603-5781.

* Crude oil prices rose on optimism over US-EU trade talks easing global economic pressure and uncertainty.

* Oil prices gained support from Azeri crude export suspension at Ceyhan and a brief Russian port halt.

* EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices closed flat at 266.8 yesterday, reflecting a balance between robust production levels and steady seasonal demand amid mixed weather forecasts. Despite forecasts for persistently warmer-than-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states through early August — including peak summer heat expected next week — traders remained cautious, as ample supply continues to cap any significant upward momentum. Production remains strong, with average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbing to 107.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, surpassing June’s record monthly high of 106.4 bcfd. Although daily production dipped to a two-week low of 106.2 bcfd, the overall supply outlook remains comfortable as output is still near all-time highs. Storage data provided slight support, as U.S. utilities injected 23 billion cubic feet (bcf) into storage last week, slightly below market expectations of 28 bcf. This modest build pushed total inventories to 3.075 trillion cubic feet, about 4.7% lower than a year ago but still 5.9% above the five-year average, keeping any near-term supply concerns muted. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 12.78% to 13,166, indicating traders squaring off positions while prices held steady. Natural gas now finds support at 263.2, with a break below likely to test 259.6 levels, while resistance is seen at 272.1; a move above this could push prices towards 277.4 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.6-277.4.

* Natural gas pares gains on milder summer heat forecast, steady production

* Extreme heat is expected to boost gas-fired power generation to meet strong air conditioning demand.

* LSEG reported average Lower 48 gas output rose to 107.3 bcfd in July, topping June’s record.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.55% yesterday to settle at 893.5, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and signs of an improving labor market that cooled appetite for industrial metals. The dollar index rebounded to 97.5 after initial jobless claims dropped unexpectedly for the sixth consecutive week, underscoring steady economic resilience. On the supply side, global refined copper markets swung to a notable surplus of 97,000 metric tons in May from a deficit in April, according to the International Copper Study Group. For the first five months of 2025, the market posted a surplus of 272,000 metric tons, broadly matching last year’s surplus during the same period. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, continues to ramp up output — with state-run Codelco reporting a 9% production rise and Antofagasta’s output jumping 11% in the first half of 2025. On the demand side, China’s June copper imports rose 8.7% month-on-month, reversing a two-month decline, although year-to-date imports remain weaker due to global stock reshuffling. Inventories have been moved to the U.S. in anticipation of potential 50% copper tariffs, which Goldman Sachs says the market may still be under-pricing. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest plunging by 27.66% to 2,315 lots, signaling traders exiting positions amid the price drop. Copper now finds immediate support at 889.6, with further downside likely to test 885.6. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 899.6; a break above this could lift prices toward the 905.6 mark in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 885.6-905.6.

* Copper dropped as the US Dollar Index rebounded to 97.5, weighing on metals market sentiment

* Fresh US labor data showed initial jobless claims fell again, underscoring continued labor market resilience.

* Chile’s Codelco boosted copper output by 9% while Antofagasta raised production 11% in H1 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower by 0.22% to settle at 269.05 yesterday as traders booked profits while keeping a close eye on ongoing U.S. trade negotiations. The market drew some underlying support after the U.S. President’s trade agreement with Japan revived optimism for a broader deal with China, the world’s largest metals consumer. On the supply side, China’s economic resilience and policy support for machinery, autos, and electrical equipment sectors are expected to cushion the downside for zinc demand despite sluggish consumer buying. However, refined zinc supply continues to tighten as Chinese smelters face pressure to trim output due to excess capacity, maintenance shutdowns, and weather-related disruptions, particularly heavy rains affecting some smelters in South China. Globally, zinc fundamentals remain supportive as the market flipped to a deficit of 44,100 metric tons in May from a surplus in April, driven by weaker-than-expected refined production in China and lower mined output elsewhere. Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine, the world’s largest zinc mine, reported a 20% drop in output, while Australia’s Nyrstar plans to slash smelting by 25% due to uncompetitive treatment charges and ore shortages. Technically, the zinc market remains under long liquidation as open interest fell sharply by 17.59% to 1,987 lots, indicating traders squaring off positions. Zinc has immediate support at 267.8, with further downside likely to test 266.4. On the upside, resistance is expected at 271; a move beyond this could lift prices toward the 272.8 mark.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.4-272.8.

* Zinc prices dropped on profit booking as traders monitored US trade talks progress with major partners closely

* Market focus shifted to next week’s crucial US-China meeting in Stockholm for possible metals demand signals.

* The global zinc market flipped to a 44,100-tonne deficit in May from April’s surplus, data showed

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.2% to settle at 254.25 yesterday, supported by an improving demand outlook from China and tightening global supply conditions. Market sentiment was lifted as traders closely monitored the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations, which if successful could provide further impetus to industrial metal demand. Additional support for aluminium came from Beijing’s renewed pledge to stabilize industrial growth, with the announcement of a massive CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project signaling continued infrastructure investment to shore up the economy. On the supply side, constraints remain evident. Sanctions on major Russian producers have already limited aluminium availability for European factories. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose marginally by 0.9% year-on-year to 6.045 million tonnes in June, according to the International Aluminium Institute. However, China’s aluminium production for June dropped by 3.23% month-on-month, and while the country’s production was up 3.4% year-on-year, export figures suggest a mixed picture with June exports slipping to 489,000 tonnes from May’s 547,000 tonnes. Aluminium inventories at three major Japanese ports fell by 4.3% in June to 316,700 tonnes, adding some tightness to regional supply. Technically, the market saw short covering as open interest dropped by 29.13% to 1,294 lots while prices firmed slightly by 0.5 rupees. Aluminium finds immediate support at 253.1, with further downside likely to test 252 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 255.4, with a breakout possibly pushing prices to 256.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 252-256.6.

* Aluminium prices gain on lower supply outlook and improving Chinese demand sentiment.

* Global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.045 million tonnes.

* Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 4.3% to 316,700 metric tons.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices closed marginally lower by 0.02% at 13,198 as an expected increase in acreage, supported by favourable rains, weighed on market sentiment. Arrivals edged up to 13,660 quintals compared to 11,940 quintals in the previous session, indicating a slight uptick in availability. Despite the higher acreage estimate — projected to increase by 10–20% this season due to relatively lower profitability of other crops — output may not see a proportionate rise. Untimely rains and reports of small rhizomes and crop rots in key growing areas like Nanded could limit productivity gains, with new crop yields expected to be 10–15% lower than last year’s 10.75 lakh tonnes. At the Duggirala market, robust trade continues as buyers prefer the higher-quality new stock, which commands a premium over older inventory. Daily volumes remain healthy at 1,000–1,200 bags, with nearly half of the new crop already traded. Arrivals are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks as harvesting continues. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose by 8.37% during April–May 2025 to 34,162.28 tonnes compared to 31,524.59 tonnes a year ago. May exports alone climbed over 10% year-on-year and over 28% from April, reflecting steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest slipped by 0.14% to 17,545 lots while prices dipped slightly by 2 rupees. Immediate support is pegged at 13,144, with further downside risk to 13,092 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 13,268; a move above could open the way to test 13,340 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13092-13340.

* Turmeric prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14027.4 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled slightly higher by 0.16% at 19,160 yesterday as short covering emerged after recent losses driven by weak domestic and export demand post the retail season. Traders noted that the conclusion of the peak retail buying window, coupled with subdued interest from foreign buyers, has kept sentiment cautious. Comfortable supply levels and tepid export demand have added to the pressure, with sufficient carry-forward stocks cushioning any immediate supply tightness. Farmers still hold an estimated 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, implying a hefty carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Despite a reduction in sowing area at some production centres this season, India’s overall cumin production is pegged at around 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to contribute about 42–45 lakh bags and 48–50 lakh bags, respectively.  Exports during April–May 2025 fell sharply by 27.07% year-on-year to 42,925.74 tonnes, although May exports saw a month-on-month rise of nearly 18% over April and an 11% increase over May last year. This mixed trend suggests overseas demand remains inconsistent. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 0.78% to 6,114 lots while prices edged up by 30 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 19,080, with further downside risk to 18,980 if breached. On the upside, resistance is seen at 19,250, and a move above this could push prices towards 19,320 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18980-19320.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19735.6 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent.

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