Telecom Sector Update : Robust subs addition by Jio, muted addition by Bharti By JM Financial Services
Robust subs addition by Jio, muted addition by Bharti
TRAI’s May’25 subscriber (subs) data shows steady net subs addition for the overall industry at 2.1mn (vs. subs gain of 1.9/2.9/2.8/0.6/2.0mn in Apr’25/Mar'25/Feb'25/Jan'25/Dec'24; and vs. cumulative subs loss of 21.9mn in the 5 consecutive months prior, i.e., Jul-Nov'24 due to SIM consolidation in the lower-ARPU segment on account of the Jul’24 tariff hike). Jio/Bharti added 2.7mn/0.3mn net subs while VIL/BSNL lost 0.3mn/0.6mn subs respectively. Further, the industry’s active subs rose sharply by 7.4mn in May’25, led by Jio/BSNL/Bharti (added 5.5mn/1.9mn/1.3mn), partly offset by VIL’s active subs loss (1.3mn). Jio’s overall subs gain was robust at 2.7mn in May’25 (vs. 2.6mn in Apr’25) and its active subs addition was even better at 5.5mn, leading to improved VLR ratio of 97.3% in May’25 (vs. 96.6% in Apr’25 and the peak of 97.5% in Oct’24). Bharti’s overall subs addition continued to be muted for the second straight month at 0.3mn in May’25 while its active subs base increased by 1.3mn. Separately, VIL lost 0.3mn overall subs and 1.3mn active subs but gained 1mn MBB subs in May’25. BSNL also lost 0.6mn overall subs but gained 1.9mn active subs.
Jio and Bharti reported MBB (which includes FWA also) and FTTH subs data for May'25, after not submitting the same data from Dec'24 to Apr'25. Hence, the MBB and FTTH subs gain reflected in May'25 represents subs gain over the last 6 months (Nov'24-May'25). Jio/Bharti added 15.9mn/12.1mn MBB subs over last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~2.6mn/~2mn in line with their historical monthly run rate. Further, Jio/Bharti added 2.03mn/0.71mn FTTH subs over the last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~0.3mn/~0.1mn respectively in line with their historical monthly run rate. However, Jio’s FTTH subs gain of 2.03mn (over the last 6 months) includes subs addition on account of reclassification of 1.03mn "FWA-UBR (Fixed Wireless Access – Unlicensed Band Radio)” subs from FWA to FTTH category made in May'25. Hence, adjusted for the above reclassification, Jio continued to add robust 5G FWA subs additions at 0.74mn in May’25, while Bharti continued to record moderate additions at 0.18mn
* Jio’s net subs gain robust at 2.7mn in May’25; active subs addition even better at 5.5mn: Jio’s net subs gain was robust at 2.7mn in May’25 (vs. 2.6mn in Apr’25), continuing with the subs gain momentum that was witnessed for 28 consecutive months over Mar’22- Jun’24 (after seeing cumulative subs loss of 16.5mn over Jul’24-Oct’24 post the tariff hike in Jul’24). Further, its active subs gain were even better at 5.5mn in May'25 (vs. 5.5mn in Apr'25). Hence, Jio’s VLR ratio further improved MoM to 97.3% in May’25 (vs. 96.6% in Apr’25 and peak of 97.5% in Oct’24), compared with 99.1% for Bharti, 84.6% for VIL and 63.9% for BSNL.
* Bharti’s overall subs addition continued to be muted for second straight month at 0.3mn in May’25 while its active subs base increased by 1.3mn: Bharti’s overall subs addition continued to be muted for the second straight month at 0.3mn in May’25 (vs. 0.2mn in Apr’25). However, it witnessed active subs gain of 1.3mn (vs. sharp active subs loss of 4.1mn in Apr’25). Hence, its VLR ratio improved to 99.1% in May’25 (vs. 98.9% in Apr’25).
* VIL lost 0.3mn overall subs and 1.3mn active subs but gained 1mn MBB subs in May’25: VIL’s overall subs base and active subs base declined by 0.3mn and 1.3mn respectively. However, its MBB subs base increased by 1mn in May’25. VIL’s management earlier said it’s hopeful that the ongoing network expansion capex will help it turn around the subs loss though it expressed difficulty in predicting a timeline for the same.
* BSNL lost 0.6mn overall subs; but gained 1.9mn active subs: All three private telcos hiked their tariffs by 15-17% in the 1 st week of Jul'24 while BSNL did not change its tariffs. This initially turned out to be positive for BSNL as it added 0.5/0.8/2.5/2.9mn overall subs in Oct’24/Sep’24/Aug’24/Jul’24. However, since Nov’24, BSNL reverted to the overall subs loss (or minimal subs gain) trend as witnessed prior to the Jul’24 tariff hike. In May’25 also, it lost 0.6mn overall subs though it gained 1.9mn active subs.
* Jio/Bharti added 15.9mn/12.1mn MBB subs over last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~2.6mn/~2mn (in line with their historical monthly run rate): Jio and Bharti reported MBB (which includes FWA also) and FTTH subs data for May'25, after not submitting the same data from Dec'24 to Apr'25. Hence, the MBB and FTTH subs gain reflected in May'25 represents subs gain over the last 6 months (Dec'24-May'25). Jio added 15.9mn MBB subs over the last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~2.6mn (in line with its historical monthly run rate of 2.5-3mn) while Bharti added 12.1mn MBB subs over the last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~2mn (in line with its historical monthly run rate) – Exhibit 2. Separately, VIL added 1.9mn MBB subs cumulatively over the last 6 months. Similarly, Jio added 2.03mn FTTH subs over the last 6 months, implying monthly addition of ~0.3mn (in line with its historical monthly run rate). However, these FTTH subs gain of 2.03mn (over the last 6 months) includes subs addition on account of reclassification of 1.03mn "FWA-UBR" subs from FWA to FTTH category made in May'25. Separately, Bharti added 0.71mn FTTH subs over the last 6 months,implying monthly addition of ~0.1mn (in line with its historical monthly run rate) – Exhibit 6.
*Jio continues to register strong 5G FWA additions at ~0.74mn, driven by its aggressive push of JioAirFiber pan-India coverage, while Bharti sees moderate additions at 0.18mn: Jio reclassified 1.03mn "FWA-UBR" subs from FWA to FTTH category in May'25. Hence, adjusted for above reclassification, Jio continued to add robust 5G FWA subs additions at 0.74mn in May’25 (vs 0.57mn in Apr’25), driven by its aggressive push of JioAirFiber panIndia coverage (JioAirFiber is now available in +5,900 cities/towns). Hence, Jio continues to lead the segment with 79.2% market share while Bharti added moderate 0.18mn 5G FWA subs and holds ~20.8% market share in May'25 – Exhibit 7.
* Bharti strengthens its leadership position in M2M segment with 54.3% M2M subs market share, followed by VIL (22.7%) and Jio (18.3%): The industry's M2M subs base increased by 4mn to 73.9mn in May'25, led by rise of 2.9mn/0.8mn/0.3mn for Bharti/Jio/VIL. Bharti strengthened its leadership position with 54.3% M2M subs market share (vs. 53.3% in Aprr'25). Jio's M2M subs market share also improved slightly MoM to 18.3% in May’25 (vs. 18.2% in Apr'25). However, VIL's market share declined MoM to 22.7% (vs. 23.6% in Apr'25), while BSNL's market share remained low at 4.6% (vs. 4.8% in Apr’24) – Exhibit 8.
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