SELL KAPAS APR @ 1620 SL 1630 TGT 1610-1600. NCDEX - Kedia Advisory

Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy closed lower by 1.86% at 54,910 as higher closing stock projections and robust domestic output weighed on sentiment. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), the closing stocks for the 2024–25 season are estimated at 55.59 lakh bales—an 84% surge over last year’s 30.19 lakh bales. The upward revision in pressing numbers to 311.40 lakh bales from 301.14 lakh bales, due to better crop sizes in some states, is adding to supply-side pressure. Total supply till end-June stands at 356.76 lakh bales, with domestic consumption at 233.5 lakh bales and exports at 15.25 lakh bales, indicating ample availability. Notably, cotton imports have more than doubled this season, pegged at 39 lakh bales compared to last year’s 15.2 lakh bales, further amplifying supply. On the global front, the US July balance sheet shows higher production estimates and ending stocks for 2025–26, alongside a small cut in average yields due to mixed weather impacts. US production is projected at 14.6 million bales, slightly higher than last year, while the global cotton balance sheet also points to a production increase of 1.43 million bales led by China, the US, and Mexico. World ending stocks are raised by 520,000 bales, highlighting abundant supply despite moderate demand upticks in Pakistan and Mexico. Technically, Cottoncandy remains under long liquidation as open interest fell by 4.41% to 65 lots while prices declined 1,040. Immediate support is pegged at 54,870, below which prices may test 54,830. On the upside, resistance is seen at 54,980, with a move above opening the door for a test of 55,050
SELL COTTONCANDY JUL @ 55200 SL 55500 TGT 54900-54600. MCX
COCUDAKL
SELL COCUDAKL AUG @ 3220 SL 3250 TGT 3180-3150. NCDEX
KAPAS
SELL KAPAS APR @ 1620 SL 1630 TGT 1610-1600. NCDEX









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Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 15 July 2025 : Kotak Securities


