Quote On Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, Senior Manager - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Below the Quote On Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, Senior Manager - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Comex Gold August futures slipped to $3,351.4/oz on Monday as safe-haven demand eased after President Trump postponed EU tariffs to July 9, following last week’s 5% rally fueled by a weaker dollar and a risk-off sentiment driven by the rising US debt burden and geopolitical tensions. However, prices rebounded to $3,385/oz as the US dollar extended its losses, falling to 98.7, amid mounting fiscal concerns stemming from Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill. Also, Reuters reported that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April, reaching the highest level since March 2024. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with Russia launching airstrikes on Ukraine for the third consecutive night, following a large-scale drone-and-missile attack last week. Today, gold is trading below $3,350/oz, weighed down by Brussels' push to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Investors are now focused on upcoming US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data for further insight into the economic outlook amid persistent tariff and inflation concerns.
WTI crude oil briefly rose above $62/bbl yesterday, buoyed by optimism surrounding extended EU-US trade talks and limited progress in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations during the fifth round of discussions in Rome. President Trump’s decision to delay a planned 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9 after talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen provided additional support. However, oil prices later reversed, settling 0.4% lower at $61.5/bbl, as caution set in ahead of the upcoming June 1 OPEC+ meeting. Reports suggest the group may approve another significant output increase, following two consecutive hikes of 411,000 bpd in May and June, raising concerns about potential oversupply. Oil extended its decline to $61/bbl today amid oversupply concerns. Traders also await Trump’s upcoming announcement on the Iran talks, expected within two days, after he hinted at progress despite Tehran reaffirming its uranium enrichment stance. However, signs of improving US-EU trade relations may help cushion sharp downside
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