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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 26th August 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold closed modestly lower on Monday at $3,365.9 per ounce, pressured by a rebound in the U.S. dollar following Friday’s sharp decline triggered by Fed Chair Powell’s cautiously dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The dollar also found support from stronger-than-expected U.S. new home sales data for July. However, losses in gold were limited as expectations for a rate cut remain elevated, with markets pricing in an 85% probability of a September cut. Geopolitical tensions also provided support, as Ukrainian President Zelensky vowed to continue resisting Russia following overnight strikes on energy infrastructure, including a fire at a nuclear plant in Kursk. Today, spot gold surged above $3,385 per ounce, buoyed by renewed dollar weakness amid concerns over the U.S. central bank’s independence after President Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

WTI crude extended gains for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, climbing to a three-week high of $65.1/bbl on concerns over supply disruptions. Ukraine escalated attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, targeting a nuclear facility and the fuel export terminal in Ust-Luga. This comes after Russian crude deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia were suspended last week following repeated Ukrainian strikes on the Druzhba pipeline. Markets are also eyeing the upcoming August 27 deadline, when an additional 25% U.S. tariff on Indian imports is expected to take effect due to India's ongoing purchases of Russian oil. Adding to the bullish tone was the rising probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in September, which lifted risk sentiment. Today, oil prices edged lower to $64.4/bbl as traders await further developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amid the prospect of additional U.S. sanctions if no truce is reached within two weeks.