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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP-Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Gold prices reached an all-time high of $3,065.20 per ounce on COMEX and Rs.89,796 per 10 grams on MCX last week, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged significant uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s policy changes. Powell also projected slower US growth and higher inflation in 2025, while the Fed’s dot plot indicated that FOMC members expect the federal funds rate to end 2025 at 3.9%, implying a potential half-percentage-point reduction or about two rate cuts by year-end. However, gold faced downward pressure later in the week, slipping to $3,004/oz, paring weekly gains to just 1.2%, as the US dollar strengthened, leading to profit-taking in precious metals. As of today, gold prices remain steady near $3,020/oz after a third consecutive weekly gain, as the market remains cautious about geopolitical risks and the fallout from tariffs, which continue to support gold's safe-haven demand, despite signs that the next wave of US tariffs may be more targeted than initially expected.

WTI crude oil experienced a second consecutive week of gains, driven by supply concerns following the US tightening sanctions on Iranian crude and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, OPEC+ announced a revised production cut schedule for seven members, including Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq, which will implement cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 barrels per day to address overproduction, more than offsetting planned production increases next month. However, oil prices edged lower today as markets remain concerned about Trump’s reciprocal levies on April 2 and the upcoming increase in OPEC+ supply. Markets are also closely monitoring developments in Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks, as a potential resolution could lead to US sanctions relief for Russia.

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