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The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 forecasts increased supplies, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Imports are up 10 million bushels to 140 million, while exports are reduced by 15 million bushels to 835 million. This results in an 18% rise in ending stocks to 819 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered by $0.05 to $5.50 per bushel. Globally, wheat supplies are projected to increase by 5.4 million tons, with higher production in Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine. While consumption rises slightly, global trade is down, mainly due to reduced exports from the EU, Russia, and the U.S. China's wheat imports are also projected to drop significantly.

Key Highlights

# U.S. wheat imports rise to 140 million bushels, boosting supplies.

# Exports drop to 835 million bushels, lowering global trade projections.

# U.S. ending stocks increase 18% to 819 million bushels.

# Global wheat production rises with higher output from Australia and Argentina.

# China's wheat imports fall significantly compared to 2023/24 levels.

The U.S. wheat market is experiencing increased supplies but weaker export demand. Imports are raised by 10 million bushels to 140 million, reflecting a strong inflow of Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum wheat. Meanwhile, exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 835 million due to weak sales trends and shipment expectations. As a result, U.S. ending stocks have increased by 25 million bushels to 819 million, an 18% rise from the previous year. The season-average farm price has been adjusted downward by $0.05 to $5.50 per bushel, reflecting updated pricing data and market expectations.

Globally, wheat supplies are expanding, with an increase of 5.4 million tons to 1,066.7 million tons. This growth is driven by higher beginning stocks in Turkey and strong production in Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine. Australia’s wheat production has been raised by 2.1 million tons to 34.1 million, making it the country’s third-largest crop on record. Meanwhile, global consumption is expected to rise to 806.7 million tons, primarily due to increased feed use in Australia, the EU, and Thailand.

Despite increased supply and consumption, world wheat trade is expected to decline slightly, with exports reduced for the EU, Russia, and the U.S. China’s wheat imports are forecasted at 6.5 million tons, less than half of its 2023/24 levels.

Finally

The U.S. wheat market faces rising stocks amid lower exports, while global supply strengthens. With trade slowing, price adjustments and supply trends will shape market movements in the coming months.

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