U.S. Rice Outlook: Higher Stocks, Lower Exports, and Price Dip by Amit Gupta , Kedia Advisory
The 2024/25 U.S. rice outlook indicates increased supplies due to higher imports, particularly in long-grain varieties, while medium- and short-grain imports decline. Domestic use reaches a record 166.0 million cwt, but exports are reduced by 4.0 million cwt to 96.0 million, mainly impacting rough rice sales in the Western Hemisphere. Ending stocks rise 18% year-over-year to 47.0 million cwt, the highest in a decade. The all-rice season-average farm price drops $0.20 per cwt to $15.40 due to long-grain price reductions. Globally, supplies dip slightly to 712.2 million tons, while trade hits a record 58.3 million tons, with India’s exports climbing to 22.0 million tons.
Key Highlights
* U.S. rice ending stocks rise 18% to a 10-year high of 47.0 million cwt.
* Imports increase, mainly in long-grain rice from Thailand.
* U.S. rice exports drop 4.0 million cwt due to weak rough rice sales.
* All-rice season-average farm price declines to $15.40 per cwt.
* Global rice trade reaches a record 58.3 million tons, led by India.
U.S. Rice Market Analysis: Price Performance, Stocks, and Trade Trends
U.S. rice prices faced downward pressure as the season-average farm price declined by $0.20 per cwt to $15.40. The dip was primarily driven by lower long-grain prices, despite an increase in California’s medium- and short-grain rice prices. With U.S. rice ending stocks climbing to a decade-high 47.0 million cwt, market fundamentals point to a softer price trend amid rising domestic supplies.
Supporting this price movement, U.S. rice imports increased, particularly long-grain rice from Thailand, offsetting lower medium- and short-grain imports from China to Puerto Rico. Domestic use set a record at 166.0 million cwt, reflecting strong consumption. However, weak demand in the Western Hemisphere led to a 4.0 million cwt reduction in U.S. rice exports, bringing the total to 96.0 million cwt.
Globally, rice trade is expected to reach an all-time high of 58.3 million tons, with India’s exports projected at near-record levels of 22.0 million tons. While global supplies slightly declined due to lower Sri Lankan production, consumption rose to 530.5 million tons, mainly driven by increased imports from China. The global ending stock projection was lowered to 181.6 million tons due to reductions in India and Sri Lanka, though U.S. stocks increased.
Finally
With record-high ending stocks and weak exports, U.S. rice prices remain under pressure. However, strong domestic demand and global trade trends could influence future price stability.
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