China`s 2025 Soybean Imports Hit Record Amid Trade Uncertainty by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
China imported a record 111.83 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, driven by aggressive buying from South America amid prolonged trade tensions with the United States. Imports rose 6.5% year-on-year as buyers front-loaded shipments to hedge against supply risks. Brazil and Argentina dominated supplies, particularly in the first half of the year. December arrivals met expectations at 8.04 million tons, though monthly volumes dipped slightly. Customs delays and tight near-term supply have disrupted crushing operations, while purchases of U.S. soybeans have resumed following a late-October trade truce.
Key Highlights
* China’s soybean imports rose 6.5% YoY to a record 111.83 million tons in 2025.
* Heavy South American buying offset reduced U.S. shipments amid trade tensions.
* December imports aligned with expectations despite customs clearance delays.
* Near-term arrivals seen tightening, pressuring crushers’ operations.
* U.S. soybean purchases rebounded after the late-October trade truce.
Soybean prices remained supported through much of 2025 as China, the world’s largest buyer, sharply increased imports to secure supplies amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Strong demand from China provided a firm undertone to global prices, particularly during the first half of the year, when import volumes surged on accelerated shipments from South America.
China’s soybean imports climbed to a record 111.83 million metric tons in 2025, up 6.5% from the previous year, according to customs data. The rally in imports was largely driven by concentrated shipments from Brazil and Argentina, as Chinese buyers rushed to lock in supplies amid concerns that an escalating China–U.S. trade dispute could disrupt future availability. This front-loading strategy pushed imports to record levels between May and October, while U.S. cargoes were largely avoided due to elevated tariffs.
In December, soybean arrivals rose 1.3% year-on-year to 8.04 million tons, broadly in line with market expectations, though volumes slipped 0.9% from November. Analysts noted that delays in customs clearance constrained the flow of imports, forcing some crushing plants to suspend operations or reduce deliveries, tightening spot supply and lending support to domestic prices.
Looking ahead, arrivals are expected to slow, with January and February imports projected at 7.48 million tons and 5.2 million tons respectively, potentially sustaining price volatility. However, sentiment has eased somewhat after Beijing resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans following a trade truce in late October. By early January, China had reportedly bought close to 10 million tons of U.S. beans, while state stockpilers conducted multiple auctions to free storage capacity ahead of incoming shipments.
Finally, China’s record soybean imports underline its strategic stockpiling amid trade risks, with near-term supply tightness and shifting sourcing patterns likely to keep prices sensitive to policy and logistics developments.
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